The real estate bubble in China more risky than in the U.S.

Concern swells in China. While inflation has risen another 2.8% in April, house prices have soared 12.8% last month, their sharpest rise in five years. The measures launched in recent months by the central government to cool the Chinese economy struggling to reassure. So much so that some Chinese personalities out of their usual reserve to sound the alarm.

In a video interview published in the Financial Times, Li Daokui, professor at Tsinghua University (located in the northwest suburbs of Beijing) and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said that "the problem housing in China is actually much more fundamental and more important as the housing market in the United States and the United Kingdom before the financial crisis. " He said "it is not only a problem of a bubble.

A "social problem"

Soaring property prices may lead to "social problems of great magnitude," Li Daokui analysis. What would happen is China, at a time when wage demands and strikes have taken center stage in recent days. "When prices start to rise, many people, especially youth, are becoming very concerned." The home ownership, which already applies to few households would be increasingly difficult in the current euphoria estate .

The authorities have announced a round of measures since last January in order to stop the burning of property prices. The state has already imposed restrictions on sales of apartments, including the introduction of "flat shop" in Beijing. He has also taken steps to tighten credit flowing.New loans granted by banks in April, however, have reached 774 billion yuan (87.7 billion euros), or 182.2 billion more than in April 2009. Finally, the government announced the "gradual" introduction of a tax on real property.

Reform at the local level

To advise the Central Bank, this range of measures is a "first step", which will control real estate speculation. But it must involve "a long-term reform" of the Chinese real estate market, warns Li Daokui. "The second stage will address the supply problem." According to the professor, steps should be taken in the second semester or early next year to encourage local governments to provide housing for households moderate and low wage.For now, local authorities prefer to sell their land to generate revenue, Li Daokui regrets.

For him, the tax on housing advertised nationally is not a solution because it may further exclude households in the housing market. An opinion shared by Axa Investment Managers. In his weekly memo, the economist Hervé Lievore points to the "vicious cycle" moved "between investors, developers and local communities," the potential to fuel a "social discontent." Believing that the policy implemented by Beijing makes sense, analysts at Societe Generale also stress the need to manage the supply of real estate in order to curb rising prices and facilitate the accession of China to the property.

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