Tuesday is likely to be as calm Monday in the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 session begins at equilibrium, up slightly from 0.10% to 3907.51 points. The London Stock Exchange opened from 0.20% to 5618.01 points while the Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange began the session down slightly from 0.05% to 5872.57 points.
Yesterday, the Paris markets have ended on a slight decline of 0.18% despite opening in the green (0.35%). In Asia, the situation calmed after the euphoria of Monday. The numbers of U.S. employment, less worse than expected, to cease their invigorating effect. Monday already, Wall Street closed haphazardly in a sitting motionless.
The wait dominates before the publication of figures and important clues on the weekend.French side, there will be foreign trade figures for January and industrial output (Wednesday), the French deficit figures, the trade balance and the number of weekly unemployment in the United States (Thursday), and finally, the much anticipated index of U.S. consumer confidence (Friday).
Today's meeting will be hosted by the new corporation. Two publications of annual results of companies in particular should lead the market: those of Eurotunnel and EADS, the latter having also announced that he threw the towel in the bidding on ravitalleurs for the U.S. Army .
EADS in the collimator
EADS announced on Tuesday a loss in 2009 of 763 million euros against a profit last year of 1.5 billion.The group expects a 2010 EBIT of $ 1 billion against 2.2 billion (before provisions) last year, and a stabilization of sales to 42.8 billion euros. Furthermore, EADS and its U.S. ally Northrop Grumman said the night they did not submit a bid for the tanker contract from the U.S. Air Force, saying it benefits their competitor Boeing payday advance low fees .
April said Monday up 20% of its net 2009 profit 72.7 million euros. Financial products have more than doubled to 18.6 million. The insurer expects for 2010 a double-digit growth in its gross margin, with a positive impact on its operating margin (13% in 2009).
Total confirmed yesterday the closure of the refinery at Dunkirk and the fulfillment of its participation in the construction of an LNG terminal with EDF.
In addition, the electrician announced a collaboration with Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy giant, in the development of reactors for third countries. Other partnerships are being negotiated with Russia in the field of electricity and fuel.
Sanofi Aventis and Merck announced Tuesday the creation of a joint venture equally owned in the area of animal health together their subsidiaries Merial and Intervet / Schering-Plow. The agreement created should be finalized within the next twelve months.
Eurotunnel remained in the black in 2009, with net income of 1.4 million euros but a turnover of 571 million euros, down 16%. Jacques Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO, recalls in an interview with Le Figaro, his intention to "market share" in the future. The group will pay the same dividend as last year, ie 4 cents per share."The payment of a dividend reflects our confidence and determination in 2010," commented Jacques Gounon.
Vicat release after market close.
"INTERVIEW – J. Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO comments on 2009 results
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Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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Medef to Unemployment Insurance, Union des industries and metal trades (UIMM) becomes very visible social issues. It has always been the heart of its expertise and sphere of influence, but the employers' federation was forced to the discretion, after revelations about the cash withdrawals from his former manager and his huge windfalls anti-strike . IAJ President since late 2007, Frederic Saint-Geours, 59, chief financial officer of SAP, warns against the risks of "clip the wings of the recovery", defends the need for strong industry and answered questions found on the ambitions of "Steelworkers" among employers.
LE FIGARO. – The latest unemployment figure is better. Is this a sign of lasting improvement?
Frédéric SAINT-GEOURS.-feeling of our members on their activities is very varied.Capital goods or export sectors are still in great difficulty. Others are more like the automobile, with the premium snack, or remain at good levels as railway equipment. I have two concerns for the future. First, many companies have exhausted the means for maintaining the relationship with their employees, including partial unemployment. If their order book does not go back, they should ask themselves questions about their workforce. Therefore, the employment situation will not improve substantially until a few months. You have to look if it is possible to extend these devices. Second concern: in two or three months, the companies have completed their 2009 accounts, which are often degraded.If banks apply their analytical tools such classic figures, they refuse many loans – I am not talking about fund investments, but simply increasing needs for working capital resulting from a rebound in activity. The risk is to clip the wings of the recovery. We are working on this with the mediator credit, Gerard Rameix.
You have to participate in the States-General of Industry. The final report sets the goal of "restoring an industrial ambition" to France. Does it still make sense to argue at the national level?
Clearly, yes. Exports from France, this is 80% or 85% of industrial goods.However, if we had kept our market share of ten years ago in world trade, it would be 100 billion euros 'turnover' in addition to France, so perhaps hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions in tax revenue, R & D … But in France, the industry faces obstacles that are not specific to him: taxes, too focused on factors of production, education must increase training to new technologies, new businesses such as green growth, or difficulty in finding long-term financing. Now we need the conclusions of the General does not remain in the state report.
When it comes to the carbon tax, this time you prefer to speak to Europe!
Exactly.The business tax was a mistake French, it is deleted and that is not enough to put French industry at par with its rivals in terms of competitiveness – and I speak of our European rivals, not Chinese! Do not create another anomaly French with the carbon tax.
On behalf of the same desire to save France in the industry, the state interferes in the strategy of Renault and Total. Shoot there too far interventionism?
The State must play its role as guarantor, no manager. The dialogue, the contract may be more effective than law and regulation, because they give companies greater flexibility, flexibility.That is how the UIMM signed agreements on training, employment of older workers, after taking a diagnosis with the unions in the sector.
The Delegate General of the UIMM, Jean-François Pilliard, took the head of the Social Protection Committee of the MEDEF. So, does it change the approach to the appointment pensions?
I recommend that we proceed at cross as we used to do in the UIMM: establish a working group, consult widely to build the position of business before entering the "hard" discussions. This must be done quickly, but there are already many tests. Finding a consensus will be difficult, but we must absolutely try.
Your annual convention, March 18, will focus on how employers' organizations can be useful to businesses.Three months after the start of the food industry, the MEDEF should it be seen as a veiled threat?
On the contrary! The subject is exactly one: from business needs and how to respond with a simple, cost control, and effective. Effective, that is to say, which makes a service to members (of the economy, tax, legal, social …) which allows them to best be heard locally and nationally. This suggests the most appropriate organizations. Asking these questions is not a threat, as an aid to employers throughout the world. How many times have we heard of the structural complexity employers!
Should we open the question of the employer's representative?
I can not imagine anyone not treated during the convention. I would add that the UIMM be extremely firm on the joint system: it must develop.We need stronger intermediary bodies to better address important issues, which must generate the widest possible accession. As to the joint management (Insurance Unemployment Agirc-Arco …), it must go further now that the new rules of representation reinforcing the legitimacy of unions. This requires changing the rules of governance, transparency, funding. It is possible the UIMM did in six months.
Do you agree with the criticism of the President of the MEDEF?
There is no question for us to weaken the MEDEF. Businesses need a strong employer representation and united.Our convention and the arrival of Jean-François Pilliard as President of the Welfare Committee of MEDEF serve to strengthen it.
But when your delegate said that joining the team of Laurence Parisot does not constitute support for the renewal of its mandate, it is a sign of defiance!
Not at all. What is being done every day, Jean-François Pilliard and me? We work. In UIMM and MEDEF. We are all employers who are negotiating delegations, which met the government. No confidence, we serve the cross. I do not say it was easy every day …
The present UIMM Does a candidate for President of the MEDEF?
We will do things in order. We will set our direction in our convention. We'll see if one candidate or another the endorsement.Otherwise, we'll see.
Where are your projects using your famous "kitty"?
Again, the idea is to use these reserves heritage as a service to businesses. What are their issues? Develop. In January alone, our system of capital development has taken investment decisions totaling 9 million euros, and these are multiplied by 4 to 10 other investors. Second issue, recruit. We will launch the next wave of our communication campaign in the spring, to show young people that may be realized in the industry. And we've released several million as part of our integration fund to help companies find skills, including among those furthest from employment. Finally last challenge, innovate.Our other endowment funds joint research projects university-industry or education programs that meet the needs of businesses.
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He took his time. But the New York jury delivered its verdict on Friday evening the group of telecommunications and media company Vivendi sued by shareholders ruined by its near-collapse in 2002, was convicted of misleading communication. Its CEO at the time, Jean-Marie Messier, has instead been milled.
As expected, Vivendi's lawyer Paul Saunders immediately announced he would appeal, and that he intended to "win". "We are satisfied that the damage is half of what the plaintiffs claimed this side there is a partial victory," said the lawyer. The plaintiff had estimated that damages could rise to 11.5 billion dollars.
Messier absent when the verdict
Jean-Marie Messier and Guillaume Hannezo, its chief financial officer, were absent when the verdict.They have yet to appear in magistrate in Paris in the spring, with five other executives of Vivendi, including responding to charges of disseminating false or misleading information, price manipulation and abuse of social goods, which they could worth up to 5 years imprisonment and heavy fines for bad credit payday advance .
After three months of trial, the nine board members of the Federal Court had to decide on 57 points very technical. After answering a series of questions establishing the guilt of the accused or not, they have, for each trading day occurring between October 2000 and August 2002, "determine the amount of inflation being caused by the fraud alleged" .
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In an aviation context depressed, ATR is holding its own game in 2009, the Toulouse-based company specializing in the construction of regional aircraft has recorded 40 firm orders and 17 options. It has delivered 54 aircraft. She has on order 136 planes today, representing a workload of more than two years. 43% of these orders relate to its new range, the ATR-42 600 and ATR-72 600.
During this same year 2009, the Spanish airline Air Nostrum and Royal Air Morocco were among its largest customers, with respectively 10 and 6 devices. The reason ATR through the crisis with such ease is the design of its aircraft, which consume 40% less fuel than jets.
A given that airlines are very sensitive. The market share in turboprop regional aircraft can only increase.In 2009 the turnover of ATR have been $ 1.4 billion, an increase of 7% over 2008. A record.
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The United Kingdom is concerned that a boomerang effect will weaken his come back. On January 1, VAT is in fact rise to 17.5%, having been exceptionally lowered to 15% for a year to boost consumption. Economists from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think again increase the VAT rate could be "stalling a recovery in its infancy."
The Center for Economic Research, which called in July 2008 a decrease of 5% tax, advance that have prolonged the VAT at 15% until July 2010. Joerg Radeke, economist at CEBR, said that the consumer will still need a boost in the first half. Inflation should indeed start rising, exceeding the 3%, which should lead to a decrease of 0.7% of household spending.In 2010, consumption would fall by 0.2%, according to economist.
The test balances
The effects of the rise in VAT rates could soon be visible through balances. If the high shopping season has started on the Bleeding Edge, economists fear it is only a deadweight, consumers rushing to the shelves before the tax goes back to 17.5 %. "They certainly have some early purchases in November and December," Analysis Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, senior economist at BNP Paribas.
The decline in consumption expected in early 2010 should still be written off by the pricing of retail giants such as Tesco. The largest British retail group has decided not to pass on the rising rate of VAT on certain non-food products.This should enable consumers to save another 12 million pounds (13.4 million euros), according to the distributor. The Sainsbury and Home Retail, among others, have also decided to sacrifice their margins.
Beneficial effects difficult to measure
In total, Jörg Radeke the CEBR believes that the rise in VAT rates, premature, and likely to "wipe out most of the benefits had been reduced fee. Still, it is difficult to estimate what were these "benefits" in 2009. According to the CEBR, reduced VAT rates contributed 0.5% to growth of British GDP.
The effect has not been miraculous. While passing the reduced rate, in the first quarter of 2009, "Private consumption fell 1.5% from fourth quarter of 2008, after a similar decline over the previous period," said Caroline Newhouse-Cohen.A decrease which stabilized until July. But economists agree that even if the measure has cost 4.3 billion pounds (4.8 billion euros) to the Treasury, the economic situation would have been worse without it.
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The new center-right government led by Angela Merkel won this Friday's first showdown managing to impose a package of tax breaks very controversial. After leading the revolt against the camps, the regional states Conservatives have finally adopted the plan to "stimulate growth" in the Bundesrat, the upper house of Parliament, by voting the 8.5 billion tax cuts promised by the Chancellor . These measures, intended to provide a boost to growth, will take effect from 1 January 2010.
The law includes an increase in family allowances, relief of estate costs and lower tax rates on value added tax (VAT) in hotels. The Chancellor and his ministers have negotiated hard these days to convince the heads of recalcitrant regional government by promising billions of euros in compensation.Including Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, whose finances are particularly vulnerable by reducing taxes.
Reticence of "wise"
Failure before the Upper House would have been a blow to the government, in place since late October, and whose beginnings have been chaotic, marked by infighting and controversy. The Minister President of Hesse, Roland Koch (CDU) has welcomed this "step in the right direction.""This is an important signal showing that the Länder black-yellow (conservative liberals) support the federal government black-yellow," he said.
The government of Angela Merkel has also exceeded the reluctance of the Court of Auditors and "wise", the government's economic advisers, and many economists, who consider irresponsible to offer tax breaks while Germany plans to contract a debt record 100 million euros in 2010. They also believe that these tax incentives will not impact on growth.
In its coalition agreement the Liberal-Conservative government of Merkel provides additional tax cuts of around 24 billion euros in 2011. Roland Koch prognostic already "talks tough and violent," to take the next tax cuts.
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Another bad sign for the government of Gordon Brown at the approach of elections in which his party, the Labor is the underdog. The UK economy has remained stuck in recession in the third quarter, and has even suffered its longest period of decline for more than half a century.
While economists hoped that the UK went into recession in the second quarter of 2008 would have returned a meager growth (which they saw to 0.2% on average) between July and September, the first estimate of the NSO The British equivalent of INSEE, showed the contrary, a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.4% over the previous quarter and by 5.2% over one year.It is hardly better than the second quarter, where GDP had declined by 0.6%, and while the UK economy fell by 5.9% since its entry into recession.
Finally, to cap it all, the ONS said he never registered period of contraction in economic activity so long since 1955. The United Kingdom could be in fact the only major economy to have contracted in the third quarter. Several other countries including France, Germany and Japan have instead returned to growth in the second quarter of this year.
The London Stock Exchange has not suffered from these ads. In contrast, the pound sterling has accused the shock, falling around 1.09 euro while hovering around 1.11 before.According to economists, the slump of the pound reflects the fact that the Bank of England may be forced to continue its program of buying assets with banks (or "quantitative easing"), in which it has already sunk more than 170 billion pounds (about 185 billion euros), which is scheduled for completion in November.
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The financial crisis has undoubtedly reduced the weight of the United States and Europe to Asia. Suddenly, the latter will take the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the world.
From this Friday until Sunday evening, leaders of ten ASEAN countries (Association of the South-Eastern Asia) met in Thailand. They are joined this morning by China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia. Countries whose recovery from crisis is much faster than in the West and for many of them are already preparing to abandon their recovery plans.
All concerned now the weak dollar, which they provide relief whenever necessary.And none of them has any interest in seeing the U.S. financial system to deteriorate, while exports remain the primary engine of growth.
"Stress tests" for Chinese banks
But the crisis was already moving lines. The model was that the United States absorb massive exports to Asia is in the process of shifting. In China and India, consumption explodes and is progressively taking over from the American buyer. ASEAN and its 600 million consumers will take over.
However, to enjoy the recovery, Asia should not repeat the mistakes of the Americans. Beijing has understood that today called for Chinese banks to conduct stress tests, stress tests each quarter to better manage credit and liquidity supply in the country.
It must also strengthen its cohesion.If in ten years exports of ASEAN have been multiplied by three, 1 700 billion, and its trade with China by ten, the regional bloc to just build a true economic community. Theoretically scheduled for 2015, it would then be extended to China, South Korea and Japan.
A dream which currently faces the political weakness of ASEAN. Nobody can believe the Committee on Human Rights that it has put in place, while Burma is a dictatorship where every opponent is going to jail and that Laos and Vietnam are two blocks Communists closed.
But Asia is a force. She has already lived through the 1998 crisis and emerged stronger than before.
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
"Tokyo is seeking a new motor recovery
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