Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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After the sharp market downturn in Paris last weekend, with the Cac 40 lost nearly 7% in 48 hours, optimism is in order at the beginning of the week Award paris.le CAC 40 is up 0.89% to 3595 points.
On the macroeconomic front, gross domestic product (GDP) of France is expected to grow by 0.5% in first quarter 2010, according to a first estimate of the Banque de France (BdF) on Monday.
The latest forecast from the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) published December 17, the economic recovery in France will confirm in early 2010 but will be "laborious and delicate, with a growth of around 0.3 % to 0.4% per quarter until midyear.
The government recently revised upward its growth forecast for this year, rose 0.75% to 1.4% in the revised budget.
INSEE has published Friday its first figures on French growth in the last quarter of 2009. The government forecasts a GDP drop of 2.25% over the last year.
The detailed values to follow.
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The case of the possible relocation of the future of Renault Clio in Turkey is still rising a notch. Nicolas Sarkozy has expressed Wednesday his irritation with his vows to parliamentarians at the Elysee, "We do not put so much money to support our manufacturers to ensure that all plants go outside." And this message the head of state has to pass directly to Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault, he will receive Saturday at the Elysee.
Wednesday Christian Estrosi, Minister of Industry, has shown the same firmness after a meeting with Patrick Pelata Bercy, the CEO of Renault. The Minister has shelled the long list of grants awarded since the beginning of 2009. Three billion loan was granted to Renault (all PSA).Flins received aid from 100 million euros for the production of Zoe, electric cars Renault (launch scheduled in 2012) and 150 million euros from the ISP for its project to produce batteries. In addition, there are 600 million euros bonus for breaking, which allowed the sale of 600 000 additional cars and the abolition of the tax.
"The government has enough evidence to say an industrial strategy," says the minister said that the state holds a 15% shareholding in Renault and two posts. It is also possible that the state seeks more seats on the board.But the number of directors is proportional to the percentage of equity held by an Act of October 30, 1935.
Wednesday, Patrick Pelata played the card of appeasement, saying that "no decision has yet been taken regarding the future production of Clio in 2013. Several scenarios are possible. The production will be maintained at Clio Flins, "as Zoe does not saturate the capacity of the site, which would be a fantastic scenario," said the skipper of the brand. However he also said that "production in France is good for vehicles with high added value. It is difficult in the low range. A shade as the government seems unwilling to consider.
A Clio for France
He asked three requirements to Renault, which has only a few days to find answers.Firstly, the group must incorporate as possible suppliers and subcontractors French to its industrial. More components must be manufactured in France.
Then, Christian Estrosi does not decrease production or declining enrollment in Flins, which currently produces 150 000 Clio. Finally, the Government intends to maintain the territory the production of Clio, regardless of the success of Zoe. Renault will have to determine what other sites the French Clio IV could be fabricated. No way to transfer the production in Bursa in Turkey, which are currently produced 180 000 Clio.Christian Estrosi does not want the share Flins parte in Bursa, but remains in France.
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The gross public debt (government, social security and local authorities) continues to rise. At the end of the third quarter, gross debt under the Maastricht amounted to 1457.4 billion, up from 29.4 billion the previous quarter, according to figures published by INSEE on Tuesday. "Expressed as a percentage of GDP, it is approximately 75.8%, up 1.9 points," says the National Institute of Statistics. In the second quarter, the debt had reached 73.9% of GDP.
The increase over the period, less than that observed in the second quarter (61.1 billion euros), was driven in particular by the increase in debt of the state. To finance the budget deficit, the state has cut its debt of 23.4 billion euros.The debt has also funded a stake in the Company making state participation in a French bank, Crédit Agricole 3 billion, INSEE said.
The social security funds have also contributed to the increase in gross public debt to the tune of 5.9 billion euros, "particularly as a result of increased indebtedness of the ACOSS (3, 9 billion euros), "details the INSEE.
The government has included in his bill to finance the debt was still progress to 77.9% of GDP at the end of the year. In 2010, it expects debt to 84% of GDP, without taking into account the large loan.
Moreover, net public debt, which includes cash and short-term is highest increase over the period, the gross debt.It was heavy with 57.1 billion euros over the second quarter, rising late September to 1331.5 billion. In case a "sharp decrease in cash of the State (-28.3 billion), returning to a level close to that of a year ago," said INSEE.
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Christian Cassier, support mobility and recruitment at INRA, the first institute of agricultural research in Europe, believes that the pace of recruitment in 2010 will be the average volume observed over the past three years. For the diversity of its businesses is an asset in the crisis.
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Gold, placing anti-crisis par excellence, in senators' crosshairs. Tenants of the Palais du Luxembourg in fact want to submit the sales of precious metals – gold, but silver jewelry and works of art to the general social contribution (CSG), revealed Thursday "Le Parisien". Supported by the Social Affairs Committee, but considered "difficult to implement technically" by the government, this new tax, which should be passed in the day aims to bridge the deficit in Social Security. In detail, if the measure is adopted as from 1 January next year, each transaction will be taxed to the tune of 8.2%. For example, the sale of a jewel worth 200 euros, Social Security will receive 16 euros CSG. With this new tax, the senators hope to get a "few million" each year.
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Another bad sign for the government of Gordon Brown at the approach of elections in which his party, the Labor is the underdog. The UK economy has remained stuck in recession in the third quarter, and has even suffered its longest period of decline for more than half a century.
While economists hoped that the UK went into recession in the second quarter of 2008 would have returned a meager growth (which they saw to 0.2% on average) between July and September, the first estimate of the NSO The British equivalent of INSEE, showed the contrary, a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.4% over the previous quarter and by 5.2% over one year.It is hardly better than the second quarter, where GDP had declined by 0.6%, and while the UK economy fell by 5.9% since its entry into recession.
Finally, to cap it all, the ONS said he never registered period of contraction in economic activity so long since 1955. The United Kingdom could be in fact the only major economy to have contracted in the third quarter. Several other countries including France, Germany and Japan have instead returned to growth in the second quarter of this year.
The London Stock Exchange has not suffered from these ads. In contrast, the pound sterling has accused the shock, falling around 1.09 euro while hovering around 1.11 before.According to economists, the slump of the pound reflects the fact that the Bank of England may be forced to continue its program of buying assets with banks (or "quantitative easing"), in which it has already sunk more than 170 billion pounds (about 185 billion euros), which is scheduled for completion in November.
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