If the crisis is undermining the morale of French households as a whole, those who are wealthy are not immune, far from it. The TNS Sofres auscultates regular relations of people with a financial wealth than 75,000 euros-the tributaries in the jargon-marketing with their bank. The final component of this study in October with 500 people shows that they live particularly bad crisis make quick cash.
The stock market turmoil of recent months are probably a part of the explanation. Indeed, in the previous survey in May, 55% of wealthy households thought that the decline in the stock market was behind them, and 44% felt that there was no risk of another financial crisis …
Since then, things have changed dramatically.
Holiday, many employees do not know forget their work. Smartphones and laptops supporting a two-mails regularly consult professionals at these times, for many every day. A sign of the growing influence of the company on its employees? Yes, but not necessarily on its own initiative. A recent study * TripAdvisor for an overwhelming majority of its employees addicts (80%) said to themselves, without solicitation particular employer, which in their words do not even expect that that they work during their holidays.
For a majority of these employees, it is to make a first selection of the many emails received in the meantime. A study of Orse (Observatory on Corporate Social Responsibility) published earlier this month, 38% of employees receive because more than 100 emails per day.The study TripAdvisor has to figure as a disturbing one-third of employees, read emails professionals is the sine qua non for a good holiday. "It is clearly of addiction, said Gerald Demortière, doctor. The employee loses the ability to abstain, to free himself from his business, as a smoker of cigarettes. " The desire to control everything, to feel indispensable, the fear that the important things in our absence to play, grow never win.
Burn-out
The vast majority of employees is estimated not to spend less good holiday so far. But this dependency has its drawbacks. "This adds to stress, and does probably not more effective," said Eric Albert, founder of the French Institute of action against stress (IFAS). Worse, these "workaholics" may ultimately psychic exhaustion.
Not surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards its growth forecast for the global economy to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April. "4% may seem not too bad, but the recovery is very unbalanced: in 2011 we see a 6.4% growth for emerging countries, but only 1.6% for advanced economies," said Olivier Tuesday Blanchard, IMF chief economist, introducing the new World Economic Outlook (WEO).
That is not this shift, now usual between the North and South, which most worries economists in Washington. "The risks are clearly downward," acknowledged Olivier Blanchard.Referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades, he admits that there is now a risk of recession with a probability of 38% in the U.S. and 17% to 18% in the United Kingdom and France, if one believes the econometric calculations.
For its part, the IMF has produced an alternative scenario combining three ingredients, "the uncontrolled financial turmoil in the euro area, combined with a deteriorating growth outlook for the medium term in the United States and a financial backlash on the real estate sector in emerging Asia. " Given the limited room for maneuver of monetary and fiscal advanced countries, the United States and the euro area might then go into recession, with activity levels less than 3% in 2012 to what is seen in the baseline scenario of WEO.Japan is not free, losing 1.5% growth compared to the central projections, or even emerging Asia, which would end 2 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% lower than expected.
If the IMF raised the specter of recession it is best to exorcise it. And governments to launch "a fervent call to action". "The leaders (politicians) are set back one step on the evolution of markets," said the economist of the IMF. "Europe can not provide the luxury of waiting three or four months to implement the plan of July 21 and in particular the reform of the European financial stability."
Accordance with his duties as conductor of globalization, the IMF presented a roadmap in three points. "The first fiscal policy. Consolidation can not be too fast because it would kill growth. It can not be too slow because it would undermine its credibility. "Olivier Blanchard and insist that the tempo has to be adapted to each country. It also considers that there are three ways to support domestic demand in the country with low interest rates, the ability of banks to distribute loans and solutions to real estate (in the U.S. ).
The second is financial. The IMF again sang the anthem of the recapitalization of banks. "For a number of banks, especially in Europe, this requires the contribution of new capital, preferably private and public sources if necessary."
Third field of action, "the international rebalancing." In this regard the ball is in the court of Asia, which should replace the U.S. consumer as the engine of global growth. "Even if this can not happen overnight," conceded Olivier Blanchard.
Lefigaro.fr – Can we say that Kweku Adoboli is "the new Kerviel"?
Frederic Boulier – It is true that there are many similarities with the Kerviel affair. The amounts are lost in the same order of magnitude. Jerome Kerviel lost 4.9 billion euros at Societe Generale, but before the "unwinding" of his positions, the loss amounted to 1.5 billion euros. In addition, two young traders of thirty years who do not leave the harem and who have a priori not studied mathematics attacks.If such solutions were introduced to Jérôme Kerviel, the fraud was detected nine months in advance.
The laxity of financial institutions will he accelerate the reform of British banking system?
I do not see because the British government stand by to this new fraud. Today, a single trader can place a financial institution to its knees if there is not an effective risk control upstream. It should probably expect the introduction of special measures to strengthen the role of authorities to monitor the control of financial institutions.Since the Kerviel affair and the "subprime" mistrust vis-à-vis banks is clearly went crescendo.
Why banks have not they learned from the Kerviel affair?
It is difficult to generalize and say that the lessons of the Kerviel affair were not included. This is not the financial system is to question, even if it is true that there are likely other fraud of this magnitude. Moreover, according to statistics, there are all two or three years. We can not avoid all financial frauds. However, one can detect some with software solutions that I advanced earlier and limit losses to a few million or tens of millions of euros.
Is it the fabulous bonuses which encourage traders to take risks as important?
It is true that greed can push market participants to take some unnecessary risks. But in 99% of cases of fraud, be aware there is no direct personal gain. Traders are sometimes victims of runaway losses due to the desire to "chasing" in the jargon of traders.
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»IN PICTURES – The largest financial fraud
The magazine Wired has signed the death warrant of the Web in September 2010. "The Web is dead," was titled the Bible in a high-tech. Provocative, the statement was intended to signal the end of the exploration of the Internet by a browser (Firefox, Safari, Internet Explorer …) in favor of a consumption of digital content for mobile applications from a smartphone or multimedia tablet.
In the U.S., the consultation of mobile applications already widely prevails (67%) on access to mobile sites (33%) in the heart of Android smartphone users, revealed a study released Friday by the Institute Nielsen.Applications dominate all other uses of the smartphone, representing 56% of the activity of a mobile terminal, as against 19% for email, 15% for calls and … 9% devoted to the Web browser.
This trend has important implications for content publishers. Indeed, they become dependent on the conditions imposed by the guardians of these ecosystems built, defining the rules, the terminal to the platform for downloading through the operating system. Apple, with its IOS and its terminals iPad or iPhone is the most obvious incarnation.The firm at the apple has chosen to abandon the format in favor of Flash HTML5 – making it unreadable number of animations and videos on the Internet – and imposes conditions of payment (30%) to content providers who sell subscriptions or applications from its platform.
The "surf neutrality"
Google, Motorola, now has the means to replicate this model of vertical integration. He recalled the "walled garden" (walled gardens) built in the early hours of the Web by companies such as AOL and CompuServe. These providers offer their subscribers a selection of content offered Pardes partners, before gradually breaking down barriers and open wide to the Web world.
The return of the closed logic could push regulators to question certain practices.It happens and a mobinaute seeking to visit a Web site on the iPad, via the Safari browser, it means to be denied access and sent automatically to the mobile application site in question on the App Store. Practices that seem to hinder the freedom of surfing. The "surf neutrality" could well be the new frontier to defend after the "Search neutrality" and Net neutrality.
"Apple against the disadvantaged." The title of the last note on the market shelves DisplaySearch force hardly relate. Competitors of the iPad accumulate disappointments.
Motorola announced last week it sold 440,000 of its shelves Xoom in the last quarter, which is better than expected. But it has revised downward its objectives for 2011. He no longer expects to sell 2 million in the year, but between 1.3 million and 1.5 million. Even though Motorola has introduced an offer to pay 100 euros for the purchase of the tablet, initially at 579 euros. "Apple has set the benchmark price for a tablet of 16 GB Wi-Fi is 499 euros – or dollars – no more," says an analyst. And even at that price, it does not. Motorola is far from the only one to have experienced. Acer has drastically revised its ambitions.Taiwan is now focusing on the annual sales of between 2.5 million and 3 million, far 5 to 7 million initially planned. Others could follow, including RIM. The manufacturer of the BlackBerry Playbook sold 500,000 in one quarter, but sales have slowed rapidly.
The price cuts and promotions of all kinds pose another risk in the market: consumers lose the notion of "fair price".
The tablets could have been a generator margins for manufacturers, but by reviewing their rates too quickly, they may have already lost the opportunity. "Brands and retailers that compete with Apple running after him, and in their desperation, they might be digging their own graves, says a study by DisplaySearch guaranteed payday loans.This gives the impression that these products are not completely finished. "So, with 9 million iPad sold in three months without any price cut, Apple seems unassailable, fumbling away the beginnings of the iPhone and revisions price.
Fade margins
Competition does not, however, weakens. Samsung will launch two new versions of the tablet at the end of the month, the Galaxy Tab 10.1 and the Galaxy Tab 8.9. They will be sold, respectively, to 489 euros and 459 euros for the 16 GB Wi-Fi, exactly the price of an iPad. By choosing a price positioning similar to Apple, Samsung is also taking a big risk in case of commercial failure, it will have little excuse. And while the competition on the market shelves is expected to increase further by year-end.Other players will enter weight, such as Sony and Fujitsu.
Why this craze for tablets, while only Apple seems to succeed at the game? Because more and more industry players are convinced that very quickly supplant the PC shelves in homes. Joseph Reger, CTO of Fujitsu, said he was "convinced that sales of Tablet PCs will exceed those of (netbooks and notebooks) to consumers by 2016." He also said that Amazon could launch a $ 299 tablet: "A consumer could afford them two for the price of a PC." Shelves would meet the main expectations of individuals, more likely to consult the content to create. They therefore prefer the portability and ease of use. Used in any room of the house, they would disappear the concept of office. Saves space in store!
The European Central Bank has pointed out as planned today its main interest rate from 1.25% to 1.5%, at meeting of its governing council in Frankfurt. The financial markets were convinced that since Jean-Claude Trichet, its president, expressed his "great vigilance", vis-à-vis inflation, June 30, before the European Parliament. It reached 2.7% year over year, according to Eurostat.
This will be the second time this year that the ECB interest rates rises and the eleventh increase since Jean-Claude Trichet took charge of the institution in 2003.
Not since the single currency is "European economic growth has been uneven," noted economists, however, Societe Generale. Industrial production rose 9.6% year on year in Germany (2.6% in France), whereas it fell by 10.9% in Greece.Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to speak on the role of rating agencies include difficulty many observers that the ECB does not it stands out more openly to their own decisions refinancing of banks.
GDF SUEZ announced Friday in a statement that "the general meeting of shareholders of Compagnie du Vent has decided to replace" its chairman and founder Jean-Michel Germa by Thierry Conil, "over 30 years experience in GDF Suez ". "A major strategic dispute," the statement continued, between GDF Suez, which owns 56.8% of Compagnie du Vent and its founder Jean-Michel Germa, which owns 43.2% is the origin of this separation.
Problem: Jean-Michel Germa judicially contest his dismissal, even though he knew his scheduled departure. First on the form. Feeling the dispute with its powerful shareholder grow for months, Jean-Michel Germa had sought this week the protection of the commercial court of Montpellier (seat LCV).He had requested the postponement of Thursday's meeting but GDF Suez has received the same day, the Tribunal de Commerce "authorization" to conduct this meeting. Jean-Michel Germa considers that the meeting "was not held." The founder of the company that employs 156 employees (sales: 27 million) is "very shocked" by the group methods.
On the merits, the proposed wind farm on both coasts, off Tréport is at the heart of the dispute between the two parties. "I wore this folder on the baptismal font for more than six years," says Jean-Michel Germa. Since 2005, he sought a major partner, not being able to invest only 2.5 billion euros of this pharaonic site of more than 100 offshore wind GDF Suez said this in 2007.Only offshore project in France to have passed the stage of public debate and to have obtained permission trunking park on both sides to eventually be included in the five zones affected by the imminent bidding of the government. Germa estimated that his company could legitimately respond to the bidding as prime contractor, with GDF Suez and all interested partners.
Regain control
The group Mestrallet which just announced an alliance with Areva and Vinci to participate in the tender intends to resume the hand and accuses Jean-Michel Germa its "independent development approach." "We do not aim to be your bank, it is argued in the entourage of the group.GDF Suez eyes, only the creation of a true industrial sector will invest successfully niche offshore wind: "Between the amounts required and the risks to assume the financial stakes are so huge it takes deploy a comprehensive strategy. "
Other disputes have marked the common path of CTA and its controlling shareholder. Today, Jean-Michel Germa figure at 490 million euros loss suffered by his company, counting the resumption of the park on both sides by GDF Suez.
Energia says victim of the same strategy
While the government prepares to launch the tender on offshore wind farms and to renew some concessions hydraulic group Mestrallet began to gather around "a great center" activities in the Renewable France previously dispersed in several subsidiaries.The group, which currently has a portfolio of 1000 megawatts (MW) wind farm, wants to double within five years. The multinational company has invested 135 million euros in CTA believes it was time to take complete control. Jean-Michel Germa denounces what he sees as a strategy of GDF Suez, which is "to transfer the assets of companies that the group claims to have bought too much, empty them of their substance out minority shareholders on the cheap."
Fabrice Crobbedu, former head of Energia, a small business specializing in heating, acquired by GDF Suez in 2008 to 54% consider themselves victims of this same strategy. Revoked in 2009, it remained a minority shareholder. At GDF Suez, the response by explaining that Fabrizio Crobbedu is suspected of abuse of corporate assets. The judicial successive episodes.Until this year, going back to Friday when Fabrice Crobbedu grabbed the Commercial Court to challenge Nevers, too, holding a general meeting.
"Asia, the Mecca of luxury groups. This could be the slogan applied to Gucci, Prada, Burberry, Hermes, Dior and others at the end of the financial and economic crisis that has shaken the past three years the global economy. For all these companies, if they were not spared by the crisis, have largely absorbed the shock by taking advantage of the growing appetite of Asian markets for luxury, chic, and know-how almost craft of some European countries.
This appetite, the luxury sector was well integrated, making the Asian market including China and Japan, their main growth drivers. For example, the French LVMH in 2010 from nearly 35% of its turnover in Asia (25% excluding Japan).In the first quarter 2011, excluding sales of the Japanese archipelago (affected by the tsunami on 11 March), billings Asian group Bernard Arnault grew 24% and 30% on the only Chinese territory.
Finally, by 2015, China should be the first global luxury goods market in all sectors according to consulting firm Pricewaterhouse Coopers. And to develop there, Western societies today are choosing bulk of trading in Hong Kong, the gateway to become known in China. "With its historical heritage, the Hong Kong is much more attractive than that of Shanghai, details of William Corbiac, emerging equities manager at Axa IM. It is much more liquid, accounting standards are long Anglo-Saxon, there are many financial analysts, fewer permissions and cheaper.In Hong Kong, Western investors feel almost like home. "
Making a name
This is the typical case of American Coach, specializing in accessories (shoes, bags, sunglasses, jewelry …) who announced in early May will be doubling its side by the end of the year, Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and its place of origin, New York. For all the luxury groups, for historical reasons or qualitative, not in Asia have the notoriety of LVMH or Hermes. The goal of Coach is clearly stated: "better brand awareness among consumers and investors in the Chinese market and throughout Asia," according to its CEO Lew Frankfort said in a statement.
This Friday, the luxury goods group Burberry has come to swell the ranks of contenders.Already present in London Stock Exchange, the British group would try to seek a listing in Hong Kong by Hong Kong Economic Journal, to "increase the interest of Asian investors."
The idea is not new. "Many Chinese entrepreneurial companies, including Internet companies and in renewable energy, are parties in the 2000s to seek a listing on Wall Street to take advantage of both technologies and to conquer the U.S. market, said William of Corbiac. We can now do the exact parallel with these Western groups visionary who want to be closer to the markets they want to grow. " A listed company must indeed comply with the requirements of disclosure and / or related to its activity, which increases its exposure to the media and therefore the general public.What support development activity in new geographical area. A strategy that seems to have also adopted in another sector, BNP Paribas. Initially, the French bank will not undertake a capital increase at its eventual listing and just want to "enjoy a better visibility in China."
A significant influx of capital
But watch it only as a matter of image. For BNP Paribas may, in a second time, make an appeal for funds on the Hong Kong site, thus killing two birds with one stone. For their part, the intruding Western luxury brands in Hong Kong are also looking to take advantage of capital and investors who flock to this place. In 2010, according to data from PricewatershouseCoopers, nearly 45 billion euros have been raised, an increase of almost 80% over one year.And for 2011, the firm estimated 30 billion funds in Hong Kong through introductions. A total of one hundred companies are entering the stock each year, more than half are Chinese.
This is the case of the Italian Prada, which recently received the green light from authorities in Hong Kong market. Pending the final IPO price (June 16) and the introduction scheduled for 24 June, the Italian company hopes to raise about 2 billion dollars (1.4 billion euros). After three failed attempts, Prada therefore preferred to Hong Kong to Milan, saying "better" opportunities offered by the international capital market.
Before her, and with the same motivations, the French L'Occitane has chosen Hong Kong to make his first public offering, there is just one year.One way for the group operating on the cosmetics market is very dynamic in Asia and almost treated as a luxury brand, to raise 532 million euros. What repay debt and finance part of its development. This gamble on the brand image now appears successful, while Reinold Geiger, President of L'Occitane, explained that he initially had great difficulty to prevail in Taiwan and Hong Kong. And for investors who subscribed to the introduction, the operation has also been very positive, because despite the turbulent early sessions, the stock rose over 30% year on year.
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Traditionally, the post of IMF Managing Director is awarded every five years to a European. Except that this time, the so-called "emerging", such as China or Brazil, hoping to appear in the landscape of global governance.
If emerging markets do not seem to agree on the way to propose a single candidate set, Europe, she intends to show its unity to maintain this position against the Americans, who they feel are the president of the World Bank. Especially since the situation of public finances in European countries, including South shudder markets for over a year. The Greeks, but also the Irish and Portuguese need a Fund that helps them, as was the case with Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Overview of possible candidates for the general direction of the International Monetary Fund, replacing Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
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