Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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The "opinion leaders" have not yet digested the crisis. The distrust that policymakers feel about financial institutions and banking remains strong, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer 2010 *. The distance is widening not just with the general public. The confidence rating of banks has melted most of the 22 countries of the investigation by the public relations agency. In the United States, for example, has dropped 39 points in three years, falling from 68% in 2007 to 29% in 2010. It is even lower in France, 21% in 2010 (against 41% in 2007).
The technology sector has the symbol
More generally, the confidence of elite companies to progress (54% of "opinion leaders" interviewed). Except in France, where it remains at a very low level (37% this year against 36% last year). If the banking and insurance are at the bottom of the table, the technology sector is racing ahead.Nearly 80% of elites trust it globally, and 70% in France. "The elites can not forgive the banking sector's responsibility in the crisis," Journet analysis Isabelle Rahe, president of Edelman France, in presenting the study. "Beyond the economic impact, it is the lack of transparency that is punished quite heavily."
Pessimism about the lessons learned from the crisis
The opacity of the financial system is well and truly under fire from critics. For 67% of respondents in 22 countries, transparency is a major asset in building the reputation of a company to the responsible management of human resources (63%) and civic attitudes (50%)."The elite give more confidence to businesses that engage in society beyond the creation of wealth and employment," says Antoine Harary, director of StrategyOne, the subsidiary of Edelman specializes in studies and assessments Marketing and Public Relations free credit report online .
But transparency and civic engagement are not everything. As stressed in the barometer makers fear that companies will not return to their "old habits", ignoring the lessons of the crisis. They are 68% internationally and 74% in France to expect that the famous "business as usual" make a comeback after the crisis. Pessimism up to nourish the hope that the elite opinion.That's about profound changes in their working methods that companies will be judged in the future.
* The 11th edition of the Edelman Trust Barometer was conducted among 4875 opinion leaders in 22 countries. The "opinion leaders", according to the criteria of Edelman, are graduates, who earn high incomes and are closely watching the news business and politics.
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Companies that have lost or gained the confidence of French in 2009
Edelman StrategyOne France and joined the research institute OpinionWay to conduct a further study with a sample of 1,000 French.These forty companies have found French or international, citing those in which they more or less confident today than in 2008. Notably, the Post is named in both charts.
• Winners
Google: 31%
E. Leclerc: 26%
Post: 26%
EDF: 24%
France TV: 21%
• Losers
France Telecom: 36%
Societe Generale: 33%
SNCF: 32%
Post: 30%
Total: 30%
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Expenses related to health care, absenteeism, business closures and premature death: the National Institute for Research and Safety and the School of Arts and Crafts feel that the cost of stress at work has reached 1.9 to 3 billion euros in France in 2007. "An evaluation minimum, the study did not take into account only one stressor," the combination of strong pressure on (the tasks performed at rapid rates and subject to deadlines) and a lack of autonomy in carrying out the work. " This would represent a third of cases of stress, excluding for example the lack of support or recognition. Moreover, only cardiovascular disease, depression and musculo-skeletal disorders have been identified as diseases resulting from stress.
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China moves away from deflation. With a rise in the index of consumer prices for the first time since January (0.6% in November, a year), the figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics announced the end of a deflationary movement, or at least its slowdown. Of the first eleven months of the year, the index remains in negative territory -0.9%.
This index, which goes into the green could bring the Chinese government economists to rethink the current monetary policy is highly flexible to support the recovery.
Industrial production for its share jumped 19.2% yoy in November, after rising 16.1% in October.Jing Ulrich of JPMorgan said that "industrial activity will continue to grow thanks to strong domestic demand and improving exports.
With 19.09 billion dollars more in November, the trade surplus since the beginning of the year totaled 177.96 billion. Regarding investment in fixed assets in urban China, they rose 32.1% year on year between January and November, against 26.8% over the same period of 2008, according to NBS figures.
In November 2008, before the Chinese government launched an ambitious plan to revive the economy on some 400 billion euros of expenditure, particularly in large infrastructure projects.For many economists, the recovery of activity, coupled with rising exports and strong growth in Chinese gross domestic product in 2009, could lead to an appreciation of the yuan in 2010.
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