What is the waiting period?
The waiting period is the period at the beginning of the sickness, during which Social Security does not compensate the employee. For those in the private sector, this period is currently three days. They are beginning to reach compensation only from the fourth day of absence. As part of the austerity plan, this period will be increased to four days in the private sector, and one day in the three public functions no fax payday loans. But in practice, only a minority of employees do not receive anything in the first three days, most companies shall bear all or part of the time (see below).
The waiting period have the same impact for all employees?
For many employees, it is painless. According to the Ministry of Budget, 70% of them are covered by a collective agreement that provides for the assumption by the employer of all or part of the waiting period.
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Barely recovered from the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 in Japan, car makers now face the wrath and flooding currently affecting Thailand and have already killed at least 300 people and damaged 10% of rice fields in the country. "It's like the tsunami in Japan who also had an impact on plants in Thailand because of shortage of spare parts," warns Payungsak Chartsutthipol, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, fearing the "massive losses" for an industry that will "several months to recover."
Regional Centre for the automotive industry with nearly 2 million units per year over the Su-East Asia, the Kingdom is home to the factories of Toyota, Ford or Honda. These floods are a blow to companies that relied on plants abroad to recover their losses in Japan.Toyota has already announced that it extended until 22 October to suspend its activities in Thailand. "The Japanese drama have exhausted by forcing them to close their factories for two months. And now, flooding slow down production in Thailand, "says Hans Greimel, Asia editor of Automotive News.
An estimated cost of 3.5 billion euros
High technology are not spared. American groups Seagate Technology and Western Digital have warned that their production would be affected hard drives. Chipmakers and électroniquesON Semiconductor Microsemi have suspended them.Finally, the Japanese electronics giant, Nikon, arrested one of its States, and its competitor Canon has transferred the production of inkjet printers to a site in Vietnam payday advance lenders.
More than the car – which represents 11% of GDP in Thailand – and electronics, the whole economy that is fragile. The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated the total cost of flooding to about 150 billion baht (3.5 billion), or between 1.3% and 1.5% of GDP in with agriculture, tourism and trade. "If Bangkok is flooded again, the losses will be even greater," warns Thanawat Polwichai, head of the forecast center at the university. According to the President of the Federation of Thai Industries, Sing Tangcharoenchaichana, quoted by the Bangkokpost, a local newspaper, the damage could even reach 190 billion baht (4.4 billion).He said the financial cost could even double if the floods continued for another two months or more. In comparison, the Japanese government had estimated the financial impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to 147 million euros.
Even if the authorities is confident in their ability to protect the megalopolis of 12 million, the Central Bank should lower its growth forecast for 2011, currently 4.1%. "The experience in Japan of a fairly rapid recovery of production after the tsunami of March offers hope, but the experience in Thailand may be less happy, say consultants IHS Global Insight. Not only the affected area is much larger, but many areas suffer the consequences. "
It's a real bolt from the French audiovisual landscape. Wednesday morning the competition authority has simply removed the authority granted to Canal + in 2006 to buy its rival TPS. Result, Canal + and its parent Vivendi will re-notify their proposed acquisition of TPS before the competition authority in a one-month periods. In addition, the authority sanctioning Canal + up to 30 million euros.
The reason for this? The Competition Authority considers that Canal + has not complied with several of the 59 commitments made during this operation.These commitments were supposed to ensure that the encrypted string abuses its dominant position in pay TV.
Among the reasons for this heavy penalty, the Competition Authority Canal + accuses of not having available to third party distributors (telecom operators and their channel packages on ADSL) in a timely manner the seven channels mentioned in the commitments. Worse, the Canal + group would deliberately degraded the quality of TPS Star, the only pay channel capable of competing with its own channel Canal +. Finally, the group led by Bertrand Meheut failed to comply with certain commitments regarding relationships with independent channels business cards.Clearly, it takes advantage of its dominant position to impose commercial conditions "opaque and potentially discriminatory"
Gendarme Competition
All of these unfulfilled commitments had been badly negotiated in 2006, on the redemption of GST. Telecom operators, Orange had in mind battled against Canal +. The competition authority had imposed severe conditions, but Canal +, no one has apparently ignored it.
With this decision, the Competition Authority comes on strong. She returns to the operation which allowed Canal + to eliminate competition in the market for pay television. Above all, the competition watchdog the fact at a time when Canal + ready to leverage its position in pay television to attack the free TV market with the acquisition of Direct 8 Direct and Star.
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Not surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards its growth forecast for the global economy to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April. "4% may seem not too bad, but the recovery is very unbalanced: in 2011 we see a 6.4% growth for emerging countries, but only 1.6% for advanced economies," said Olivier Tuesday Blanchard, IMF chief economist, introducing the new World Economic Outlook (WEO).
That is not this shift, now usual between the North and South, which most worries economists in Washington. "The risks are clearly downward," acknowledged Olivier Blanchard.Referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades, he admits that there is now a risk of recession with a probability of 38% in the U.S. and 17% to 18% in the United Kingdom and France, if one believes the econometric calculations.
For its part, the IMF has produced an alternative scenario combining three ingredients, "the uncontrolled financial turmoil in the euro area, combined with a deteriorating growth outlook for the medium term in the United States and a financial backlash on the real estate sector in emerging Asia. " Given the limited room for maneuver of monetary and fiscal advanced countries, the United States and the euro area might then go into recession, with activity levels less than 3% in 2012 to what is seen in the baseline scenario of WEO.Japan is not free, losing 1.5% growth compared to the central projections, or even emerging Asia, which would end 2 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% lower than expected.
If the IMF raised the specter of recession it is best to exorcise it. And governments to launch "a fervent call to action". "The leaders (politicians) are set back one step on the evolution of markets," said the economist of the IMF. "Europe can not provide the luxury of waiting three or four months to implement the plan of July 21 and in particular the reform of the European financial stability."
Accordance with his duties as conductor of globalization, the IMF presented a roadmap in three points. "The first fiscal policy. Consolidation can not be too fast because it would kill growth. It can not be too slow because it would undermine its credibility. "Olivier Blanchard and insist that the tempo has to be adapted to each country. It also considers that there are three ways to support domestic demand in the country with low interest rates, the ability of banks to distribute loans and solutions to real estate (in the U.S. ).
The second is financial. The IMF again sang the anthem of the recapitalization of banks. "For a number of banks, especially in Europe, this requires the contribution of new capital, preferably private and public sources if necessary."
Third field of action, "the international rebalancing." In this regard the ball is in the court of Asia, which should replace the U.S. consumer as the engine of global growth. "Even if this can not happen overnight," conceded Olivier Blanchard.
The U.S. equity markets finished the session lower as investors showed disappointment with the Fed's proposals to end the crisis. The Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 and retreat of 1.06% in 1185, and 88 points from 0.78% to 2529.14 points. For its part, the Dow Jones lost 1.04% to 11,296.24 points.
U.S. investors have expressed disappointment with the speech elusive Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the attitude that the institution intends to adopt to restore growth and employment. "The Federal Reserve has a variety of instruments that can be used to increase financial support to the economy," he said flatly. In the same vein, he says he "discussed the merits and costs of these instruments at a meeting in August."And clarify that he and his "colleagues on the Committee's monetary policy the Fed (FOMC)" continue to study these possibilities in September.
In anticipation of Obama's plan for employment
Still hesitant, most investors are waiting impatiently for the speech Barack Obama (1 hour on Friday, French time), which is expected to announce tonight a plan of some $ 300 billion to reduce unemployment and avoid a recession threatens. Markets, which had initially welcomed the prospect of the announcement, began to appear less enthusiastic. They question in particular its financing and its impact on the U.S. deficit.
On the macroeconomic front, the weekly jobless claims rose in the U.S., whereas they were expected to decline.During the week to September 3, these amounted to 414,000, against 412,000 (revised) the previous week. For its part, the trade deficit fell sharply in July to $ 44.8 billion after two consecutive months above 50 billion, with an unexpected surge in exports. In addition, crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, announced the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA). They fell 3.96 million barrels to over 353 million, while economists had forecast a decline of 1.9 million barrels. The consumer credit in turn increased more than expected in July. According to the Federal Reserve, the stock rose by 11.97 billion dollars (8.61 billion euros) after an increase of 11.35 billion dollars in June
OECD pessimistic
According to the OECD, economic growth in developed countries could slow sharply, see stalling in the second half and central banks must be prepared to ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates or intervening in the markets. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that growth in the G7 should not exceed 1.6% annualized in the third quarter and is expected to fall to 0.2% over the last three months of year paydayloans.The United States should expand at a 1.1% annualized in the third quarter and 0.4% in the fourth.
In the same tone, the IMF said on Thursday that "the economic situation of a global perspective has deteriorated, and the risks increase, which is what we have said so far," d According to a spokesman.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro declined to 1.3883 dollars (-1.50%). The course of the black gold they have closed lower Thursday, undermined by the fluctuations of the dollar and weak equity markets.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October down 0.32% to 89.05 dollars.
The side of values, the Chinese government pledged Thursday not to make higher bid by "politicizing" an oil spill in the northeast of the country about which the U.S. company ConocoPhillips (-2.124% to 65.880 dollars) has agreed to to endorse its "full responsibility".
The Taiwanese HTC (filed a complaint in the United States against Apple yesterday.The number two mobile phone in Asia accuses the giant of violating patents that Google has to give him.
For its part, Credit Suisse, the bank is considering to withdraw its private banking business in the United States, where the establishment is facing pressure from the U.S. authorities decided to fight against tax evasion, said Thursday the press Switzerland.
Also note, the South Korean group Samsung Electronics will release a new digital tablet under Windows environment, equipped with the Windows operating system developed by Microsoft 8, reported Thursday the Korea Economic Daily, citing a source familiar with the matter.Analysts say South Korea wants to reduce its dependence on Android operating system Google after its acquisition by the American giant of internet mobile phone manufacturer Motorola Mobility.
The Chinese authorities have renewed the license authorizing the operation of the U.S. site Google (0.174% to 534.960 dollars) in China. This decision indicates that Beijing wants to maintain Google in the country, despite its decision to reduce its operations in place against the backdrop of criticism of the policy of censorship. Also note, the infringement proceedings initiated against Google in May by three French publishers, Gallimard, Flammarion and Albin Michel, will not on at the moment, said Thursday the magazine Livres Hebdo online.
The American group messaging FedEx (-1.510% to 74.990 dollars) wants to buy 50 aircraft to modernize its aging air fleet, according to Bloomberg.Fedex is the competing Boeing 767 and Airbus A330, but will make its decision in several months.
We suspect, given the global economic slowdown taking place, the government would be forced, sooner or later, to revise downward its growth forecast for 2012 (2.25%). But given the very poor GDP figures in the second quarter that were published this morning, one wonders now if the forecasts for 2011 will be held, too.
The government plans to officially 2% growth this year. According to Insee, the carry-over of 2011 (that is to say that France would increase if the activity was stagnant until the end of the year) is 1.4%. From 1.4% to 2% going to have to know the activity a dramatic rebound in the second half, which is far from certain.Balances were mediocre and above all a financial crisis that could fill a strong business investment bodes poorly for consumption and industrial production in the third quarter.
All in a context of slower public investment, fiscal discipline requires. At Bercy, yet it refuses for now to revise down forecasts payday loans guaranteed no fax. But he will have to solve it or risk losing credibility.
Huge consequences
The consequences of the stagnation of GDP in the second quarter are huge: the estimated government deficit to 5.7% of GDP at end 2011 and end 2012 4.6% are threatened. The government has pledged to do everything to achieve this intangible. He has no choice: the slightest deviation will be severely punished by financial markets.
In order to reduce the deficit in 2012 the state was counting on three billion euros in savings in tax loopholes. This figure is outdated. The aim should be 5 billion, at least, to save on niches, according to the general rapporteur of the budget Gilles Carrez. The MP also recommends additional 3 billion of cuts in public spending. Rigor looks for this winter.
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In the wake of Wall Street, the indices showed last green. The U.S. indices were offered a breath of oxygen, the ones who had suffered a Monday night session black. But did not count on the intervention of the Fed, which ended the great rebound: the Central Bank of the United States (Fed) announced Tuesday it would keep its key interest rate near zero " at least until mid-2013 "and that it was considering new stimulus package to help the economy. These ads have been justified by growth 'considerably slower' than expected and risks "have increased".
What investors consolidate their fear that the U.S. economy slow down seriously. Around 20:30, the Dow Jones clawing over 0.04% to 10,814 points, still below 11,000 points, after crossing the water line briefly.The Standard & Poor's 500 and 100 Nadsad, highly volatile, yet amounted respectively to 1.21% and 1.98%, whereas increases were much more frank queqlues minutes before the Fed speaks. The Fed should seek a delicate compromise between indications that reassure investors around the world, and a formulation that is acceptable to the enemies of inflation.
Also very anxious before the meeting with the Fed, the European and Asian stock market finally closed in the red after a session yoyo. In Paris the CAC 40 fell below 3,000 points for the first time since July 2009. But the trend seems to have subsided, the indices being pressed into the green in the afternoon.
Plummeting after the deteriorating U.S. debt rating last Friday, the Dow ended Monday down 5.55%, falling to 10,809.80 and the lowest level in 10 months. It dropped below the 11,000 points for the first time since October. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology, more copiously unscrewed further, down 6.90%. The speech of President Barack Obama yesterday at the meeting, has little reassured the markets, which have severely plummeted, from both sides of the Atlantic. Furthermore, degradation, on Monday, Standard & Poor's, unsecured notes of Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, organizations refinancing home loans, a, yesterday, still darkened the picture.These organisms probably were punished because of their dependence on the U.S. federal government.
Global oil demand to decrease
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Tuesday lowered its forecast for growth in global demand for crude in 2011, citing deteriorating macroeconomic outlook in most advanced economies. In its monthly report, OPEC reduced its forecast of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) now and plans for this year growth in global demand of 1.21 million bpd of crude.In financial markets, oil prices were up Tuesday at the opening in New York (13 cents to 81.54 dollars), offering an impressive rebound Oil prices were up Tuesday at the opening New York, offering an impressive rebound after falling to levels seen since September.
Earlier this afternoon, investors are aware of a new better than expected, but still not glorifying to the future of U.S. growth. Productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at an annual rate of 0.3% over the period April to June after falling 0.6% the previous quarter (revised from 1.8%). The market expected it folds down from 0.8% in the second quarter.
Face communication at high risk of the Fed tonight, "it is clear that the average productivity of U.S. companies in the second quarter is very far from the concerns of the market and will go unnoticed" analysts suggest Aurel BGC. Especially since the figure is clearly negative, the victim of an increasingly weakened growth.
The market capitalization of U.S. computer maker Apple has briefly exceeded that of the oil giant ExxonMobbil Tuesday, becoming the most expensive company in the world, said a specialist told AFP. The market capitalization of both groups were around 340 billion dollars in the afternoon in New York, told AFP Volokhine Gregory, head of markets for the company portfolio management Meeschaert New York. That of Apple rose temporarily above that of ExxonMobil to 7:20 p.m..
Cyprus is on the brink both economically and politically. Many speculate that the country, which joined the euro in 2008 to become the fourth of the area to apply for financial support.
The situation worsened with the explosion on July 11 last of a shipment of arms on a naval base. The tragedy left 13 dead and destroyed the main power plant on the island that produced 60% of its electricity. Since the disaster, Cyprus is facing a government crisis. Daily demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Demetris Christofias. To calm discontent, the latter requested the July 28 resignation of the government to conduct a reshuffle.
In addition, the economy ends up weaker than ever. The rating agency Moody's has revised its forecast for GDP growth of 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2012 down after the explosion.It provides stability in 2011 and a 1% growth in 2012. In addition to the cost of rebuilding the plant and import of electricity in the interval – valued at over one billion euros – daily cuts disrupt an economy already weakened by the crisis. As a result, Standard & Poor's and Moody's both lowered the rating last week in Cyprus due to budgetary concerns of the country.
The banks are the Achilles heel of the Cypriots. Bank of Cyprus, the largest financial institution on the island, called earlier this week the government in Nicosia to take prompt action to prevent the country does need a financial rescue plan. "Unless we act, we risk the ability of the state to refinance and the consequences will be immediate and serious," the bank said in a statement.
The deficit is widening
Especially since the official debt of Cyprus – which is about 61% of GDP – may actually be higher according to some experts. End of 2010, the agency Stock Watch estimates that the debt was around Cyprus 105% of GDP, if we include the debt of social security funds. Enough to feed all the speculation? The spokesman of the Commissioner of Financial Services, Chantal Hughes said Tuesday he was "no question of an assistance plan" because the country is "determined to do what is necessary in terms of fiscal consolidation" . However, the deficit in the first half widened sharply, reaching 3.5% of GDP against 1.9% a year earlier.
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The record turns Greek puzzles. In Brussels on Tuesday, finance ministers of the Eurogroup have once again gathered to discuss a new rescue plan, with the stumbling block of how to involve private creditors.
The coming days ahead crucial step after the meeting convened in emergency Tuesday night. The future plan for assistance must be discussed Monday during a Eurogroup long planned – this one – in the context of the EU summit on 23 and 24 JuneMeanwhile, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel should also mention the issue in Berlin on Friday.
Crushed by the weight of a huge debt of 350 billion euros, Athens has already obtained a loan of 110 billion last year, and creditors are preparing to give a hand to the pocket extension could be around 90 billion euros, according to figures frequently mentioned.
Reactions conservative banks
"The German government is ready to take additional measures," said Tuesday the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, while holding that "of course" private sector participation was "an element" of any additional program.His Dutch counterpart, Jan Kees de Jager, for his part felt that the private sector should shoulder more than 30% of a new assistance plan.
But the European Commission, the ECB and France in particular, warn against any commitments forced march of banks and other pension funds, which could have a destabilizing effect on markets. "We are against the involvement other than a voluntary private creditors," was repeated before MEPs Mario Draghi, who should succeed Jean-Claude Trichet in November.
For its part, the Commissioner of Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn, has talked about the preparation of an "Agreement on the basis of the Vienna initiative, under which banks extend the term of their loans and do so voluntarily."For the Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, "all sorts of authoritarian measures likely would include a risk for Portugal or Ireland, a risk for the euro area."
Several options are on the table. Berlin calls for an exchange of bonds, which would lengthen the debt maturity of seven years. The other track to the study is a continuation of voluntary debt maturities (rollover).
The ground is shifting, investors can quickly interpret a conscription as a step toward bankruptcy. As a warning, the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded three notches Monday note of Greece, to "CCC".
From the banking side, the reactions are currently cautious.The German Banking Federation Saturday approved the principle of private sector participation, without specifying the terms, while the governor of the Bank of France showed its confidence in the financial system driver (see below). French and German institutions are most at risk from international creditors.
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The World Health Organization has classified the mobile phones in the category of products whose use is "possibly carcinogenic". If their harmfulness is not formally demonstrated, scholars have already shown that heavy users appeared to have a greater risk of developing cancers in the head (brain, parotid gland, inner ear). It is therefore necessary to minimize, at least as a precaution, exposure. Lefigaro.fr present you some tracks.
Use the speakerphone or handsfree
The amount of air absorbed by the body decreases rapidly when leaving the phone (decrease proportional to the square of the distance separating the receiver from the transmitter). The use of loudspeaker used to limit its exposure. Similarly, hands free kits are very effective even if a very small waves propagate along the wire.
Bluetooth kits work them on the same frequency range as laptops (or Wi-Fi). But they emit more than 200 times less safe. From the moment the end user's team for that call, they are commendable. Otherwise, they can instead make things worse.
Limit conversations moving
The phones do not emit systematically with the same power. When you start a conversation when the phone connects with the relay antenna, it is more important example.
When you are moving (subway, car, train), your phone also emits more strongly to search for nearby antennas. And when you pick wrong, your phone tries to compensate by sending more powerful waves.In both cases, it is better to avoid spending long shots son.
Call from a fixed maximum
The best way to avoid exposure to wave the phone is still … not to use it. Behind this lies a profound truism commercial development: since December 2010, the major ISPs offer for very reasonable money, unlimited plans to laptops. We can call his friends without breaking the bank since its fixed.
Note that cordless phones and son (also known as DECT) operate on the same wavelength range but emit about ten times times less power.
Prioritize mails and SMS
Speak no more: write. In this way, you keep your laptop away from your ear and you limit the amount of waves it emits. The introduction of SMS packages and mails Unlimited makes this alternative economically viable.As for phones, they are more likely to have full keyboards that facilitate the writing of messages. Some users have already integrated this new way of communicating.
Do not keep your laptop close to you
Your phone emits at very short intervals to keep in touch with the network (or 3G telephony). Better to leave your laptop on your desktop in your pocket, in your living room on your bedside table. Most phones now have a function "airplane" that lets you disconnect your terminal from the network and benefit from other applications (alarm clock, games, etc.).
Buy a phone with a small SAR?
Cell phones all have a SAR (Specific Absorption Rate) which gives the amount of absorbed wave by human tissues for a maximum emission.Limited to 2 W / kg in Europe (1.6 W / kg in the U.S.), it is measured by the manufacturer itself has a legal obligation to mention it in the manual. Some websites will enumerate the values to allow comparisons. Critics point out that a DAS phone can be clamped to get a hint when he issues an average of more waves than cameras with a high SAR.
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