The luxury sector is doing decidedly. PPR has surpassed analyst expectations by announcing on Friday, thanks to the acceleration of group sales in the period, net income Group share up 113.3% over one year to 403 million euros. His real turnover in the first half is also in an increase of 3.6% over the first half of 2009 to 8.139 billion euros.
"Our strong reaction from the outset of the crisis to maintain our competitiveness and the development of offensive trade allow us to benefit from the initial effects of the global economic recovery," said Francois-Henri Pinault President and CEO of PPR said in a statement. Earnings from operations also increased from 20.7% to 708 million euros.
"Good prospects"
The weight of the activity of PPR International has indeed continued to grow in the first half, representing 60.5% of the turnover of the group against 59.7% a year ago. Emerging countries in particular have contributed to make the results of PPR, with trading up 11.3%. Gucci now 40% of its sales in emerging countries, against 36% a year ago.
As its competitors in the luxury, like Hermes, LVMH and Burburry PPR announces results improved versus the first quarter 2010, reflecting the fact that the sector enjoys full recovery. The luxury division of PPR, Gucci Group (Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Boucheron …) recorded an increase of 11.1% of its turnover to 1.82 billion euros. Less than Hermes, however, who announced last week a turnover up 23% over the first half of 2009.Francois-Henri Pinault, however, anticipates "good prospects", in the short and medium term.
Often criticized by customers, the outsourcing of call centers to foreign countries is becoming a government priority. According to Le Parisien on Sunday, the record has been taken over by the Secretary of State for Employment Laurent Wauquiez. The latter is studying a plan of action to fight against the leakage of these jobs outside French territory.
To emphasize the installation of these centers in France, the Secretary of State may well introduce a surcharge "of calls from sites located abroad.Conversely, companies deciding to keep their call centers in France would receive the "nudges" as aid in recruitment, training, installation in rural areas or relief from social security contributions, believes Learn daily.
More transparency
Laurent Wauquiez would generally aim to "make practices more transparent" left to prepare "a list of poor performers. The fight against the relocation, however, looks very difficult. According to latest estimates, dating to 2008, the Union of professional contact center (SP2C), an employee of a call center Morocco is for example paid between 400 and 450 euros a month against a minimum of 1320 euro gross France (including bonuses and thirteenth month).The battle is also likely to face the refusal of the Commission in Brussels which could object to these tax measures.
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"The Post: public facing an unprecedented challenge, a necessary change." The title of the report of the Court of Auditors formally released Thursday speaks for itself. The government agency at a critical juncture. In debt and facing a collapse of its top market, mail, the Post will benefit from a capital increase of EUR 2.7 billion, provided by the State and the Caisse des depots. The two sides are negotiating the valuation of the company and hope to find common ground in late July.
In this context, the report of the Court was awaited. The sages of the Rue Cambon had already studied the Post in 2003.Returning to their audit work, they were able to measure the progress accomplished: modernization of industrial facilities, improved management of the company's … very positive developments, but that might not be sufficient "to deal deep and structural decline in the mail and opening the postal market on 1 January next competition within the Community. "
The dividends of La Banque Postale
To catch up, according to the Post Office should the Court's experts work on the cost of its network, delays in productivity and quality of its service. Especially as the company's management has adopted a strategic plan, "Ambition 2015", which assumptions are deemed voluntary by the Court. When The Post estimated the reduction in mail volumes between 2008 and 2015 to 30%, the Court suggested that he perform simulations starting with a scenario of a decline of 40%.
Jean-Paul Bailly, CEO of La Poste considers this as severe in 1 hour payday loans. For a leader, the company has shown, given the information available at the time of any possible reactivity to adapt to the collapse of mail. He recalled that in late 2007, "Nobody could anticipate the crisis" mail since, between 2003 and 2007, the total decline in traffic addressed had not exceeded 2.3%. Regarding the criticism on the quality of service, the CEO noted that the objectives set by the government have been exceeded in 2008 and 2009.
The banking subsidiary of La Poste, La Banque Postale, is also discussed. While the Court emphasized an increase in net banking income lower than expected, Jean-Paul Bailly emphasizes the exceptional resistance of La Banque Postale to the financial crisis.He returned to the strategy of developing new business banking (consumer finance, property and casualty …) partnerships. The choice "was in no way constrained by the priority given by the group to other investments."
It is a voluntary process that aims to accelerate the implementation of its services. In this regard, the Governor of the Bank of France in his own response to the report, asked the Post Office to ensure that its subsidiary "has the human skills and techniques required to address this market." The Governor also noted that the distribution rate of 45% of its income in the form of dividend proposed by the strategic plan of the Post Bank, would penalize a period "where capital must be strengthened."
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While industrial countries emerging from crisis levels weighted with historically high public debt, emerging markets display patterns much healthier. Their good resistance during the recession of 2009 and an underlying trend towards greater stability has attracted the interest of investors.
"We see a positive snowball effect on emerging market debt: a dozen countries have been under positive outlook by rating agencies, which herald a recovery of notes, analytical Anne-Sophie Girault, a specialist in this Market Aviva Investors. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and others see a positive view of the low debt ratio of developing countries, which averages less than 40% of gross domestic product. Twice as less developed countries.
The emerging markets have also gained credibility in the markets."They have improved their fundamentals, the local central banks are becoming more independent, inflation is under control and steering of public finances is good," Frank J. Nicolas, Natixis AM. And the economic outlook is much better than in Europe, for example.
Result: institutional investors have been interested for nearly ten months to market, providing stability. They take long positions. So far, only hedge funds were present in the short term, making the market very volatile. Today, the market is 360 billion of debt issued in dollars and 1.4 trillion dollars of debt issued in local currency.
Record demand
In this context, the demand for emerging market debt from the investment fund has beaten all records in the first half, according to the calculations of Aviva.At $ 31 billion, it almost reaches the levels of previous years in just five months.
Emerging now are they safe? "These are pseudo-safe investments," says Franck Nicolas. "Beware of Loved tobacco." Clearly, the emerging countries are always a risk of sudden reversal of the situation. And if their fundamentals, growth, inflation, debt-positive, "markets, very nervous now, can still cause a contagion" of the debt crisis in emerging countries, recognizes Anne-Sophie Girault.
"If we do not change policy, we will in the wall." Jacques Attali, President of PlanetFinance and author of a book entitled "All ruined in ten years? Public debt: the last chance "does not beat around the bush. After a week when financial markets are worried about the emergence of a new recession, former adviser to Francois Mitterrand and confirms that the government must halt the rise in public debt. And for this, a policy of austerity. "We're on the brink of a global deflation as it has ever seen for a century and a half," he said.
In alarm that has not failed to react as President of the European Central Bank (ECB). "I do not think the risk of a recession.Globally, it is clear that we are in a recovery phase, confirmed particularly in the emerging world, but also in the industrialized world, "said Jean-Claude Trichet. That did not stop to be careful. "Growth is not written in the industrialized world, it depends on the ability of countries to strengthen the confidence of households, firms and enterprises," he says.
Grand European loan
Europe is not doomed to stagnation. According to economists, big bosses and politicians gathered in Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum for the Old Continent has to reform, reduce deficits and build on innovation. "Without policy change, the growth potential of Europe for the next ten years will be around 1.3% to 1.5% per year.We would then take years to regain the levels of unemployment pre-crisis, "says economist Christian de Boissieu.
For this, the Circle of economists in favor of a large loan eueuropéen, referring to the one established last year by Nicolas Sarkozy. The idea is, like its sister French, invest in innovation, green technology or education. "Innovation and services are crucial. The deindustrialization of the United States had no areas of very high technology, because they have attracted the intelligence world, "says Louis Welsh, president of EADS.
"Place of Culture and Tourism
The question is how to articulate these priorities, fiscal consolidation and sustaining growth -. Hence the idea of an overhaul of EU policies.In short, Europe must "change the growth model," according to former Prime Minister Alain Juppe. "The EU lacks coherence between its short and medium term focus on reducing deficits, and the long term that seeks to promote investment in the knowledge economy," says economist Agnes Benassy-Quere.
Far from being able to display growth rates comparable to those of emerging countries, Europe has every interest to agree on next steps. Otherwise it will be reduced to "a place of culture and tourism," says Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, President of Circle of economists.
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Gold broke his own record
Like last week, the attraction of gold can not be denied on the markets. Despite the aid plan of 750 billion euros earmarked by the European heads of state, investors worried and rushed to gold. The gold chains the record: the rising price ended at 1249.40 dollars, never seen on the London market which serves a global reference. On the London Bullion Market, an ounce of gold ended Friday at 1236.50 dollars at auction Friday night, cons 1202.50 dollars the previous Friday.
In its wake, the money is increased to a level it had attained over the past two years.The gray metal rose Thursday to 19.64 dollars, not far from $ 20 per ounce reached in March 2008, to finally finish the week at 19.64 dollars Friday.
Stimulated by the gold and silver, platinum group metals have rebounded after falling last week, victims of the strengthening dollar. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, an ounce of platinum finished in 1721 dollars Friday. In turn, an ounce of palladium finished $ 536.
The dominant concern in oil markets
The continued turmoil in oil markets. The prices fell Friday to their lowest levels in three months to 70.83 dollars. On the Nymex, a barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery finished at 71.61 dollars, down 2.79 dollars compared to Thursday. Prices have been a difficult week, leaving more than $ 5 in four sessions.They are well below the levels of early April, when the barrel was mounted to $ 87. In London, Brent crude ended Friday at 77.20 dollars, yielding 2.93% on the week.
As the equity markets, the euphoria that had raised prices Monday has not taken very long. The markets saw a dim announced the austerity policies that could lead to a slowdown in oil demand. Moreover, the continuing fall of the single European currency, which fell Friday to its lowest level since October 2008 (1.2359 dollars), weighs heavily on the markets.
In addition, crude oil reserves rose 1.9 million barrels during the week ended May 7, two times more than expected.
Week of mixed fortunes for base metals
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), the week has been more troubled.Investors fear the rigors of European policies that could dampen growth. In addition, China has caused confusion by announcing lower than expected macroeconomic data: the rate of growth of China's industrial output slowed in April, rising 17.8% year on year, after 18.1% March.
Copper, considered a barometer of the market ended the week slightly up to 6955 dollars per tonne. The aluminum stabilized this week at 2,093 dollars per tonne against 2,090 dollars the previous week.Zinc, nickel and lead have declined by 1.8% to 2.050 dollars per tonne, from 3% to 21,650 dollars per tonne and 2.4% in 1950 dollars.
Agricultural raw materials: sugar recovers
On Liffe in London, a tonne of white sugar for August delivery was worth 470 pounds on Friday against 435.80 pounds a ton for the same term last Friday. On the NYBOT U.S. a pound of raw sugar for July delivery was worth 14.88 cents against 13.64 cents a week earlier. But the euphoria is unlikely to last. The International Sugar Organisation (ISO) said Thursday he expected a surplus in 2010-2011 of nearly 2.5 million tonnes. Production is expected to grow in Brazil, India, Mexico.
For his part, cocoa was penalized by the strengthening dollar and profit taking. There is also an expected production increase in Brazil.Prices fell to 2,212 pounds per tonne in London and 2852 dollars in New York, respectively, the lowest since three weeks and a month. They ended the week at 2,232 pounds on Liffe and 2858 dollars on NYBOT.
Moreover, prices of wheat, corn and soybeans fell this week in Chicago, penalized by the rapid advance of planting in the United States. May 2, 68% corn, 60% of spring wheat and 15% of soybeans had been planted against respectively 40%, 47% and 8% on average over the past five years. In addition, the rising dollar makes U.S. production less attractive to export than those in Europe. The contract of corn for July delivery ended Friday at $ 3.63 and lost 2.4% on the week.The contract of soybeans in the same maturity fell to 9.53 dollars per bushel (-0.7%) while the wheat contract ended at U.S. $ 4.71 (-7.6%).
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In an interview published Tuesday in the daily Les Echos, Christine Lagarde, economy minister, said France will contribute "approximately 90 billion euros" to support fund for countries in the euro area in need. The Minister said that this figure was calculated "based on the share of France in the capital of the European Central Bank, about 20%.
In an environment where financial markets are concerned about the explosion of debt and deficits States, Christine Lagarde said that this contribution has "no direct impact on either the level of deficit or the debt according Maastricht, since these are the guarantees that would be activated in case of default. "
The economy minister also reaffirmed that France "will take its commitment to reduce the deficit to 6% of GDP in 2011 and 3% in 2013.
Meeting in Brussels this weekend, the EU finance ministers agreed on a total of 500 billion euros. This plan includes a large fund of 60 billion euros plus a special mechanism of 440 billion euros in loan guarantees.
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LE FIGARO. – ArcelorMittal escapes shortly after the first loss in its history. Are you satisfied with this performance?
Lakshmi Mittal. – No, although, given the circumstances, we are very far out. We achieved all our objectives of lowering costs, reducing debt, adjusting our production, and have negotiated with the various unions in the world … while 2009 was one of the most difficult years for thirty years the capitalist world. The crisis is not over. The recovery will be slow and gradual. But we managed to overcome the crisis successfully.
Using your production capacity from 50% in late 2008, to 70%. Do you anticipate this year?
Our production planning is based on the request of our customers. In 2009, only 10 of its 25 blast furnaces were in production. Now, twenty are active.There remain four or five who are temporarily stopped and restarted when demand recovers. At the end of 2010, our plants should operate at 85% of their capacity. The automotive market is expected to improve slightly over fourth quarter 2009 in Europe and strong growth in emerging countries. We organize days of innovation with our major customers. We present our new products, our development programs. They are still waiting for better products, steel both stronger and lighter, and more services.
How do you make 5 billion cost-cutting announced in 2012?
This total includes 5 billion of the savings already achieved (2.7 billion Editor's note). We have implemented many measures to improve our productivity.ArcelorMittal is a great company so we can make a "benchmark" in the group! We have implemented a continuous improvement plan which aims to save $ 30 (or 20 euros) per tonne of steel produced. There were hundreds of initiatives in this area. In 2009, we managed to save 13 euros per tonne. We still have to win 7 euros. At group level, it will represent an additional saving of 1.4 billion euros. And we can still reduce our administrative costs and expenses. This will include a specialization of production sites that could be devoted to one type of product payday advance . That does not mean that we will close …
… Or that you will continue to reduce your workforce?
The group has 35 000 employees less in 2009 than in 2008.We have plans in place starting in early retirement, voluntary severance schemes … We have nothing planned as of this year. We have just completed what was started. There is no excess production capacity in Europe. In China, yes.
You also talked about the resumption of investment.
Yes. We will resume mining projects and investment in developing countries, including Brazil. We do not expect to make further acquisitions in the steel. The cost would be higher than the expansion of existing capacity. We focus on the latter solution.
The introduction of carbon tax is a threat to your business in France?
We will be less competitive in Europe. We are in discussion with the French Government, to explain the impact of this tax on our costs.I met President Nicolas Sarkozy a few weeks ago. He says he wants a strong industry in France. We'll have to find solutions. European policy in terms of CO2 is already a burden for the European steel industry, compared to our competitors in China or India. This clearly represents an additional cost, difficult to quantify but very real. Finally, the carbon tax would be inconsistent with a strong industry. But both will have to coexist.
Chinese production of steel which starts again on the rise is a threat to your industry?
Last year, net exports of Chinese steel amounted to 10 million tonnes. This year, they should not exceed 25 million tonnes. First, because the Chinese domestic demand has picked up.Then, because Chinese steel production depends on imports of raw materials, making it less competitive for export. Finally, China mainly exported to South-Eastern Asia. Nevertheless, we are always attentive. If China's exports, it can make European prices down, it already happened before 2008. There is always a risk.
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China moves away from deflation. With a rise in the index of consumer prices for the first time since January (0.6% in November, a year), the figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics announced the end of a deflationary movement, or at least its slowdown. Of the first eleven months of the year, the index remains in negative territory -0.9%.
This index, which goes into the green could bring the Chinese government economists to rethink the current monetary policy is highly flexible to support the recovery.
Industrial production for its share jumped 19.2% yoy in November, after rising 16.1% in October.Jing Ulrich of JPMorgan said that "industrial activity will continue to grow thanks to strong domestic demand and improving exports.
With 19.09 billion dollars more in November, the trade surplus since the beginning of the year totaled 177.96 billion. Regarding investment in fixed assets in urban China, they rose 32.1% year on year between January and November, against 26.8% over the same period of 2008, according to NBS figures.
In November 2008, before the Chinese government launched an ambitious plan to revive the economy on some 400 billion euros of expenditure, particularly in large infrastructure projects.For many economists, the recovery of activity, coupled with rising exports and strong growth in Chinese gross domestic product in 2009, could lead to an appreciation of the yuan in 2010.
"China is emerging OECD recession
Paris, Palais des congr?s. This Thursday, the huge amphitheater, Pierre Gadonneix presided as expected its last general meeting of shareholders of EDF. Re-elected director of the group with 96.5% of the votes, Henri Proglio, already designated by the State, has been inducted as the new chairman of EDF. His appointment should be approved definitively by the Council of Ministers on 25 November. The person will thus serve as head of the electrical lights at the end of the month.
Henri Proglio Photo credits: AFP
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