Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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The French group displays and street furniture, JCDecaux, released on Thursday its sales in 2009, amounting to 1, 92 billion euros, down 11.5% compared to 2008.
This figure reflects the sharp drop in advertising business, the more cyclical activity of the group and the only fully established in Europe. She has indeed recorded a decline in organic sales of 16.1%. Activities Furniture Urban Transport and proved somewhat more resistant, their respective sales down 12.1% to 934 million euros and 6.3% to 589.6 million euros. Organic growth at constant scope and exchange rates, amounted to -10.9%, while the group expected a decline of 12.5%.
"The reduction in advertising budgets and a strong pressure on prices led to a decline in global advertising market, including internet, expected around 10%," said Jean-Francois Decaux, CEO and Co-CEO JCDecaux.
2009 the worst year since 1964
The annual report for France, compiled Wednesday by Kantar Media Institute, revealed growth "historically low" advertising market (+1.4%), outdoor (posters and street furniture) is the medium most affected (-8.7%).
In the fourth quarter, sales fell by 7.2% to 561.6 million euros. A perimeter and constant exchange rates the growth was -4.9%.
"2009 is undoubtedly the toughest year that JCDecaux has faced since the inception of the company in 1964, said Jean-Francois Decaux instant payday loan . The reduction in advertising budgets and a strong pressure on prices led to a decline in global advertising market, including on-line, expected around 10%.
Sales in Asia and North America most resistant
Europe, excluding France and the United Kingdom, presented a decrease in turnover from 16.7% to 650.9 million euros. La France has decreased its turnover by 8.7%, despite a difficult advertising environment and a strong performance in 2008 (organic growth of 4.8%).
The United Kingdom is the area that experienced the largest decline in fiscal 2009 (-25.5%), improving economic conditions, however, clearly in the fourth quarter. Asia-Pacific and North America have been stronger with declines of 6.7% to 300.9 million euros and 6.5% to 146.2 million euros.
"The group has benefited in the fourth quarter with a slight recovery in advertising spending and increased its exposure to emerging markets. The more positive view of advertisers found on some markets in September, seems to continue in the first quarter of this year. This allows us to be, for now, confident in the ability of JCDecaux to reach a rate of positive organic growth in the first quarter of 2010, "concludes Jean-François Decaux.
The annual results 2009 JC Decaux will be published pre-market March 10, 2010.
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The financial crisis has undoubtedly reduced the weight of the United States and Europe to Asia. Suddenly, the latter will take the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the world.
From this Friday until Sunday evening, leaders of ten ASEAN countries (Association of the South-Eastern Asia) met in Thailand. They are joined this morning by China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia. Countries whose recovery from crisis is much faster than in the West and for many of them are already preparing to abandon their recovery plans.
All concerned now the weak dollar, which they provide relief whenever necessary.And none of them has any interest in seeing the U.S. financial system to deteriorate, while exports remain the primary engine of growth.
"Stress tests" for Chinese banks
But the crisis was already moving lines. The model was that the United States absorb massive exports to Asia is in the process of shifting. In China and India, consumption explodes and is progressively taking over from the American buyer. ASEAN and its 600 million consumers will take over.
However, to enjoy the recovery, Asia should not repeat the mistakes of the Americans. Beijing has understood that today called for Chinese banks to conduct stress tests, stress tests each quarter to better manage credit and liquidity supply in the country.
It must also strengthen its cohesion.If in ten years exports of ASEAN have been multiplied by three, 1 700 billion, and its trade with China by ten, the regional bloc to just build a true economic community. Theoretically scheduled for 2015, it would then be extended to China, South Korea and Japan.
A dream which currently faces the political weakness of ASEAN. Nobody can believe the Committee on Human Rights that it has put in place, while Burma is a dictatorship where every opponent is going to jail and that Laos and Vietnam are two blocks Communists closed.
But Asia is a force. She has already lived through the 1998 crisis and emerged stronger than before.
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
"Tokyo is seeking a new motor recovery
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Yogurt machine is restarted. Thanks to price cuts, promotions and new standards more accessible, sales of Danone's dairy products rose 7% in volume in the third quarter. It's the largest increase since mid-2007.
So far, Danone had mostly favored the move upmarket with its brands Activia, Actimel and Danacol and rate increases. These were also made compulsory by the soaring price of milk. But the crisis had led to an alarming decline in volumes last year. In January, the group has initiated a program called reset ( "reset"). To boost volumes, each subsidiary has revised its product positioning and pricing in each of its markets (yoghurt, water, infant nutrition and medical nutrition).
Franck Riboud, Danone's boss has welcomed the success of these "operational adjustments."We did not only correct, but have been effective and rapid implementation, said without false modesty, the CEO. We have completed the repositioning of our products before the end of the year. "
A year ago, Danone was advised that because of the deteriorating economy, growing its sales in 2009 would be "less than a few points" in its medium-term target of between 8 and + + 10%. According to details made this Friday, the group table in fact now an annual growth of 2.8%.
While this is a very sharp slowdown in growth of sales, Danone has proven its ability to react and managed to accelerate the pace since January.In the third quarter, all regions are growing, even Europe, which was down in the first half.
Volvic and Evian in progress
Above all, "we gained market share in the three quarters of our markets," insists Peter Andre Térisse, the CFO. He also noted that milk prices would increase, "but return to significant increases in 2008." Danone may therefore increase some of its prices, "while remaining competitive."
Other good news: the return to form of the bottled water division, which is experiencing its strongest growth since early 2008. "Danone has its strong presence in Asia, the area that draws economic recovery," said Lee Linthium, head of research for Euromonitor.The institute predicts that sales of bottled water will increase by 8% in Asia this year, thanks to economic recovery in urban areas, where consumption of these products is higher.
Even in developed countries, Danone waters are rising again this summer, especially in France, the United Kingdom and Germany. With the impact of weather, but not only. "The sales made under Volvic promotion grew by 40%," says one Danone. In recent weeks, the promotion efforts made on Evian, the brand's flagship division, are even more important. Here again, priority is given to the volumes to boost sales.
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