Barely recovered from the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 in Japan, car makers now face the wrath and flooding currently affecting Thailand and have already killed at least 300 people and damaged 10% of rice fields in the country. "It's like the tsunami in Japan who also had an impact on plants in Thailand because of shortage of spare parts," warns Payungsak Chartsutthipol, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, fearing the "massive losses" for an industry that will "several months to recover."
Regional Centre for the automotive industry with nearly 2 million units per year over the Su-East Asia, the Kingdom is home to the factories of Toyota, Ford or Honda. These floods are a blow to companies that relied on plants abroad to recover their losses in Japan.Toyota has already announced that it extended until 22 October to suspend its activities in Thailand. "The Japanese drama have exhausted by forcing them to close their factories for two months. And now, flooding slow down production in Thailand, "says Hans Greimel, Asia editor of Automotive News.
An estimated cost of 3.5 billion euros
High technology are not spared. American groups Seagate Technology and Western Digital have warned that their production would be affected hard drives. Chipmakers and électroniquesON Semiconductor Microsemi have suspended them.Finally, the Japanese electronics giant, Nikon, arrested one of its States, and its competitor Canon has transferred the production of inkjet printers to a site in Vietnam payday advance lenders.
More than the car – which represents 11% of GDP in Thailand – and electronics, the whole economy that is fragile. The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated the total cost of flooding to about 150 billion baht (3.5 billion), or between 1.3% and 1.5% of GDP in with agriculture, tourism and trade. "If Bangkok is flooded again, the losses will be even greater," warns Thanawat Polwichai, head of the forecast center at the university. According to the President of the Federation of Thai Industries, Sing Tangcharoenchaichana, quoted by the Bangkokpost, a local newspaper, the damage could even reach 190 billion baht (4.4 billion).He said the financial cost could even double if the floods continued for another two months or more. In comparison, the Japanese government had estimated the financial impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to 147 million euros.
Even if the authorities is confident in their ability to protect the megalopolis of 12 million, the Central Bank should lower its growth forecast for 2011, currently 4.1%. "The experience in Japan of a fairly rapid recovery of production after the tsunami of March offers hope, but the experience in Thailand may be less happy, say consultants IHS Global Insight. Not only the affected area is much larger, but many areas suffer the consequences. "
Lefigaro.fr – Can we say that Kweku Adoboli is "the new Kerviel"?
Frederic Boulier – It is true that there are many similarities with the Kerviel affair. The amounts are lost in the same order of magnitude. Jerome Kerviel lost 4.9 billion euros at Societe Generale, but before the "unwinding" of his positions, the loss amounted to 1.5 billion euros. In addition, two young traders of thirty years who do not leave the harem and who have a priori not studied mathematics attacks.If such solutions were introduced to Jérôme Kerviel, the fraud was detected nine months in advance.
The laxity of financial institutions will he accelerate the reform of British banking system?
I do not see because the British government stand by to this new fraud. Today, a single trader can place a financial institution to its knees if there is not an effective risk control upstream. It should probably expect the introduction of special measures to strengthen the role of authorities to monitor the control of financial institutions.Since the Kerviel affair and the "subprime" mistrust vis-à-vis banks is clearly went crescendo.
Why banks have not they learned from the Kerviel affair?
It is difficult to generalize and say that the lessons of the Kerviel affair were not included. This is not the financial system is to question, even if it is true that there are likely other fraud of this magnitude. Moreover, according to statistics, there are all two or three years. We can not avoid all financial frauds. However, one can detect some with software solutions that I advanced earlier and limit losses to a few million or tens of millions of euros.
Is it the fabulous bonuses which encourage traders to take risks as important?
It is true that greed can push market participants to take some unnecessary risks. But in 99% of cases of fraud, be aware there is no direct personal gain. Traders are sometimes victims of runaway losses due to the desire to "chasing" in the jargon of traders.
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»IN PICTURES – The largest financial fraud
Shortly before the opening on Tuesday on Wall Street index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, yielded 0.74% to 1199.20 points and 2207.50 points to 0.56%. The Dow Jones was waiting for his part, down 0.59% at 11,449 points.
After the flight of the day, the New York Stock Exchange and could catch his breath at the opening on Tuesday. Profit taking, mixed with caution always appreciated by investors, seem to encourage U.S. stock markets to begin the session backwards. Even if the words, held last Friday by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured, prompting indexes rebounded strongly yesterday, investors remain worried.As recalled in a note Tuesday that Jean-Michel Six, chief Europe economist for Standard & Poor's, a "recession" double-dip "is preventable, but the risk increases."
Real Estate and Consumer Menu
Investors monitor more than ever the various macroeconomic indicators of the week free credit report and score. Both are on the agenda for this Tuesday: the Case-Shiller real estate index of house prices for June, from 15.00. Then will come at 16:00, the numbers of consumer confidence for August.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes of the last meeting of 9 August, the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. central bank will also be observed under the microscope, after market close, at 20:00 Paris time .
On the corporate side, no major publication on Tuesday.Bank of America on Monday launched a new large-scale operation to strengthen its capital by selling about half its stake in China Construction Bank, which allows him to approach the future requirements of rules known as "Basel III". The bank will retain 5% stake in the establishment of China (BCC) after this transaction, which must be completed by the end of September. The sale includes 13.1 million shares of the CCB to a group of investors.
Christine Lagarde keeps its promises and thus confirms the rise of China on the international economic and international. The new executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has appointed a Chinese Zhu Min, the Director-General, a third managing director created for the occasion. It will work well alongside a Japanese and an American. The Chinese were far special adviser to Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
At age 58, Min Zhu has a strong resume: he went through the World Bank, the Central Bank of China and Bank of China business establishment. He "brings a wealth of experience in administration, politics and international financial markets, but also strong leadership skills and communication, and an understanding of institutional funds, Christine Lagarde said in a statement.In his capacity as Executive Vice President, he will play a decisive role in our work, in collaboration with other members of my team and myself. "
Elected by the unit of European leaders and the agreement of the United States, Christine Lagarde has focused during his campaign for the highest office of the IMF to receive the support of emerging countries. The latter, in much better shape economically developed countries, intend to carry more weight in the decisions of the IMF, busy to participate in rescue of Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
An Obama adviser appointed
To secure the support of China (3.82% of votes in the IMF), the former French Minister of Economy visits in Beijing, hinted that it could appoint a Chinese by his side.At its inaugural press conference, she said she would continue the policy of his predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn by giving more weight to emerging within the Fund.
Christine Lagarde has not forgotten the former shareholders of the Fund, namely the United States, which were the key to his appointment. She announced that David Lipton, an economic adviser to the White House, take over from his compatriot John Lipsky as Director General."Combining international expertise, experience in public policy and private sector and a strong track record in managing economic crises, David brings to the Fund's long experience in the design of policies and negotiating skills," said Christine Lagarde said.
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The government is very worried by the drought that has spread to 61 French departments and is willing to provide aid to farmers. Nicolas Sarkozy, who is in the Charente on Thursday presented a plan to help farmers affected by drought which includes a "shift one year" repayment of loans granted to farmers in 2009, and waived the Tax on undeveloped land.
"It is essentially a cash flow problem is (…), you repay your debts, or you pay for your food animals," said Nicolas Sarkozy after visiting the operation of a cattle farmer Montemboeuf . "We will find you some leeway and we will shift all the payments of a year," he added. "Essentially this is a map of deferments," stressed the head of state.He stressed that the "encryption" of this measure, the state will take over the payment of interest owed by farmers, could not be established "now" does not exclude other measures if necessary .
A budget of 500 million
At a roundtable in La Rochefoucauld, the Head of State later clarified that this related only to the reimbursement of aid paid under the plan launched in 2009 Poligny (Jura). "I just do not tell the difference repayment of all loans in French agriculture, it must be serious," he said. During the roundtable, the president also said that "farmers in the affected areas would benefit from an exemption from tax on undeveloped land (…) which represents 300 million euros."
In the process, he said that the state would pay the national guarantee fund against agricultural disasters, mobilized by the Minister of Agriculture, Bruno Le Maire, a budget of around EUR 200 million to enable the payment Advance compensation "from the month of September business cards." "On 12 July there will be a first test session files (…) the first payments will be held in September," he said.
Facilities of National Defence made provisions
Finally, Nicolas Sarkozy has announced, next week, a meeting of professional agricultural organizations with the Ministers of Agriculture, Ecology and Defense, as well as the CEO of SNCF to adjust logistical problems posed by the movement of fodder from farmers in difficulty."The problem is less a production problem at those you book (fodder) that a massive logistical problem," he said, adding that "national defense facilities" will be made available to allow storage straw and fodder.
In his speech, the head of state has ruled out any direct assistance to farmers in difficulty. "Do not fall back into bad habits to give you benefits that would be declared illegal (by Brussels, ed) in a few months," he said.
In addition to these economic measures, Nicolas Sarkozy also announced the establishment of a five-year plan to create water reservoirs and reduced volumes of water used by agriculture. "We must learn how to use the water," he concluded.
(With AFP)
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Small form for Wall Street to start the week. At the close, the Dow Jones lost 0.50% to 12,089.96 points, the Standard & Poor's was down 1.08% at 1286.17 points and the Nasdaq dropped 1.11% to 2702.56 points.
The scheduled end of the second program of quantitative easing (QE2) of the Federal Reserve also weighed on the trend on Wall Street. Started last August, the program of monetary easing had allowed the S & P 500 gain 30% over a period of eight months through April. The S & P 500 has since lost 5% from its peak last month.
The absence of major economic indicators or corporate earnings later in the week also makes investors excited.
Portugal calls for calm
Concerning the problems of sovereign debt in Europe, the new Portuguese government appealed for calm on markets.The President of the Social Democratic Party, Pedro Passos Coelho, who succeeded Jose Socrates, has assured creditors on Sunday night that his country would not be "a burden" for them, promising to "do everything" to "honor the commitments" the Portuguese State.
As a result, U.S. banks suffer: Bank of America loose 3.99% to 10.83 dollars, Citigroup dropped 4.47% to 38.07 dollars and Morgan Stanley sells 2.60% to 22.52 dollars.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro declined slightly against the dollar on Monday after climbing to its highest level since a month after the release of new funding for Greece, while the greenback suffered from concerns about the strength of U.S. economic recovery. In the evening in Paris, the European single currency was worth 1.4570 dollars against 1.4637 dollars on Friday night.The euro climbed to 1.4658 dollars in early morning, its highest level since May 5
Apple introduced its icloud
The side of values, the airline sector is battered on Monday. Delta Airlines coward 3.01% to 9.33 dollars. Forecast company profits will be halved in 2011 because of high oil prices, unrest in the Arab world and natural disasters in Japan, said today the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Apple: -1.57% to 338.04 dollars
On Monday, Steve Jobs, the boss of Apple announced the service icloud cloud computing. The Cupertino company creates a new front against Amazon, Google and Microsoft.For the "cloud" is expanding.
Goldman Sachs: -1.06% to 133.90 dollars
For its part, the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs will make public internal documents on its activities in the mortgage before the crisis, to counter the charges against her in the Senate, says the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).Also according to the American newspaper, the United States are studying the possible impact on competition in the acquisition of patents from bankrupt Canadian telecoms equipment maker Nortel giants of the computer and the internet like Google or Apple.
Fiat: -0.56% to 10.72 dollars
Sergio Marchionne said on Saturday on the sidelines of a conference in Venice, having made an offer to the Canadian government to buy back its share from 1.7% of Chrysler for about $ 125 million, or the same terms as the takeover announced on Thursday from 6% U.S. Treasury for $ 500 million. Two years after taking 20% stake in Chrysler, Fiat Group will officially become the majority in the third of the U.S. Big Three. The price for crossing the symbolic threshold of 50% was indeed set Friday: Fiat will spend 560 million dollars for the last 6% stake held by the U.S. Treasury.This enables him to climb to 52% of capital.
Microsoft: 0.44% to 24.01 dollars Yahoo!: -1.47% to 15.45 dollars
The e-mail services from Microsoft and Yahoo have in turn been the subject of infiltration attempts. The U.S. wants global rules against piracy.
Hiring picked up in April in the United States. Based on the highly anticipated monthly report from the Labor Department released this Friday, 244,000 net jobs were created, when adjusted for seasonal variations, or 10.4% more than in March. It's the largest increase in employment since May 2009. The figure for March was also revised upward to 221,000 against 216,000 originally announced.
This acceleration was driven by the dynamism of the private sector has created 268,000 jobs, the highest since February 2006. Economists predicted, however, a plateau in improving U.S. labor market and had forecast 186,000 new jobs.
Unemployment rate to 9%
However, this improvement was not enough to prevent a surprise rise in unemployment.After four months of decline, it was 9% in April against 8.8% the previous month.
This rise, which goes against forecasts of analysts, was foreshadowed by the poor figures published this week: a monthly survey of firm ADP, released Wednesday, showed a slowdown in job creation in the private sector April. The next day, figures released by the Labor Department showed a surprise rebound in weekly jobless claims at 474,000 against 431,000 the previous week free online credit report.They thus reach a high of eight months.
This apparent distortion between the two statistics can be explained by the fact that the unemployment rate and the number of hires are made after two separate investigations, the first conducted with a sample of households, with the second of a sample of firms.
It could be a sign that the number of jobs created have benefited people who already have a job or it could signal an adjustment of the figures next month.
European stock markets have increased their earnings from these figures, a sign that the health of the U.S. economy is not as bad as that. In Paris the CAC 40 gained 1.26% in 4055 to 15 hours, 34 points. On the foreign exchange market, the dollar has increased its progress against the euro at 1.4547.
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Billing the rent receipt, inventory costs, closing costs account … Despite the tightening of laws in recent years, many property managers continue to charge tenants for illegal payments, according to the latest study of the consumer association CLCV, as Le Figaro has procured. "We conducted an initial study on the illegal and improper billings in 2006. Since very little has changed, "says David Rodrigues, a lawyer in the CLCV. Some deviations, such as billing receipt of rent paid by check and billing renewal of the lease (up to 95 euros), however, virtually disappeared.
But other practices, though illegal, remain. Several large agencies charge and the rent receipt (between 0.53 cents and 3 euros per month). Yet it is a gratuitous act, as recalled by the 2009 law.Some managers have found a solution by charging these fees under other names. "Typically, managers prefer to play on words, citing" administrative fees "," expenditure "or" fresh chancery, '"said the study of CLCV. Others go even further, by puncturing 1.20 Access to the receipt on the Internet.
Another classic, the cost of inventory input and output (between 40 and 100 euros) imposed by some agencies, so that this act must be free in the absence of litigation.
Charges artificially undervalued
In some agencies, the tenant must pay the costs of recovery in case of late payment of rent allowed by law (about 20 euros on average). Moreover, he charges our account closure at the end of the lease (up to 60 euros).Some managers even collect 34.38 euros to reassess the annual rental charges.
Aware of some potential problems in some firms, the U.S., the largest union of property managers, regrets these abuses. "Those who do not obey the law are punishable," says Serge Ivars, President of the United States. Thus, some agencies still require the tenant to make a check (corresponding to one month's rent excluding charges) for a good book. A deposit will not recover if he changes his mind. This practice has become less frequent, but it has not totally disappeared. Yet, "since March 2007, the law prohibits Dalo the lessor to claim a reservation check.But this kind of practice continues, "the study says.
The CLCV also points out certain abuses, such as voluntary understatement of rental charges for "bait barge" and artificially lowering the rent. The study cites the example of a lease signed in 2006 with a provision for charges 30 euros per month. At the first adjustment, which occurred in 2010 (!), The provision has been revalued to 148 euros (an increase of 393%). After the tenant leaves the end of 2010, housing has been rented with a provision for expenses … 30 euros.
Why such abuse? The first reason is economic."A rent receipt charged 2.5 euros per month represents a heritage of 500 houses for example the tidy sum of 15,000 euros per year," says the study, said that property managers are already paid by the owner housing.
However, all management professionals are not housed in the same boat. "The abuses are more frequent in larger groups than in small firms," said David Rodriguez, who would like to be displayed in agency fees that a tenant does not pay.
The week starts expected to see a little clearer in the reform of the taxation of wealth. Thursday will hold a symposium at Bercy in which Baroin, the budget minister, and Christine Lagarde, Minister of Economy, reveal what options are open to reform.
We already know that the track, a time referred to, of taxing the gain on the sale of a principal residence will not see the day. February 10, TF1, Nicolas Sarkozy has said clearly. Moreover, the tax benefits accorded to regulated booklets (Booklet A, sustainability …) and regulated savings (savings plan housing, housing savings account …) should not be affected by the reform.
There remains the thorny case of life insurance. Some imagine that her income, taxed at only 7.5% after eight years of detention, are taxed more.This increase would apply only to contracts exceeding a certain amount in order to protect small savers. Another idea, less taxing contracts more heavily invested in equities (eg 5.5%) and more others (eg 8.5%). However, many within the majority and the government feel suicidal to touch the life insurance to fourteen months of the presidential election. Their plea for the status quo tax seems to hold the rope.
More fundamentally, by early May and the presentation of the reform in the Council of Ministers, the executive will decide on a simple layout of the ISF or her disappearance. The first option is to remove the first slice (the one from 800 000 to 1.3 million in assets), increase the rebate on the principal residence and to strengthen the ceiling of the ISF.Advantage: the removal of the tax shield – the only point gained from the reform – finance or less relief EWB. Conversely, the disappearance of the tax on capital means finding 3.2 billion euros of alternative resources. Supporters of this option believe it is possible to concentrate the necessary increase in taxation of unearned income (capital gains, dividends, interest) on the very wealthy households. For example by subjecting the scale of income tax (IR) products of capital in excess of 100,000 euros per year.
Franco-German convergence
Should we also create an additional tax on income (IR) to 45% for very wealthy households? Many MPs want. But Nicolas Sarkozy, who has the last word on reform, there is so far away. Germany has yet created a slice of IR at 45%.But the reform is supposed to be under the banner of fiscal convergence with our neighbor. The ECA will announce Friday its report on the subject. Only problem: it should conclude that the property taxes are not a key factor of competitiveness gap between the two countries. Taxes and social charges on companies play a far greater role. The report should advocate a reconciliation of the bases of corporate income tax (CIT). And noted that comparisons are difficult. An example: 80% of German companies are taxed at the IR, not the SI.
In reality, the site of the Franco-German tax convergence, and the big bang that it is post-presidential.
The siege is perhaps not what we think. In the battle between Alassane Ouattara and Laurent Gbagbo President of Cote d'Ivoire, do not be fooled by appearances. Certainly, Ouattara, who won the presidential elections of 28 November, can not leave the hotel Gulf surrounded by military forces loyal to Gbagbo. But the latter, which does not release the power, is increasingly isolated from its financial resources by the strategy of suffocation of his opponent.
"Without military intervention impossible, the only weapon Ouattara is the economy," said Vincent Darraque, associate researcher at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). "The goal ultimately is to divide the clan on fund bankruptcy." Alassane Ouattara and its international allies have thus closed one by one all the valves supplying the cash war chest of the outgoing president.
"Gbagbo tinker"
But each time, "Gbagbo crafter, artisan economy develops and it seems impossible to reduce to zero its resources," says Rinaldo Depagne, the International Crisis Group (ICG). The camp Ouattara example decreed the suspension of exports of cocoa, Gbagbo has the upper hand in the industry. The European Union has followed, as well as large multinationals in the sector. But, warns an observer working for a French bank, the president turns the embargo through the ways of smuggling.
The hardest blow dealt to the clan Gbagbo went more unnoticed: printing money has been confiscated by the Central Bank of African States (BCEAO). Ally at the head of the guardian of the CFA franc, the common currency for countries in the region, was ousted in mid-January no fax payday loan. His replacement, a pro-Ouattara, immediately closed the antenna of the institution in Abidjan.Gbagbo then organized the robbery of the branch that hosts 268 billion CFA francs (408 million). According to the magazine Jeune Afrique, he could pocket as 8 billion, can not open the coffers, "the access codes are managed from Dakar, Senegal, and changed daily."
Extortion tax
Short of forcing the doors armored reserves of the BCEAO, Gbagbo can always count on one of its main resource: oil. Nearly a third of production would be siphoned off by his clan, or about 20,000 barrels / day. Besides the black gold, Gbagbo controls the direction of Ivorian taxes. Businesses are at once caught in the crossfire. Ouattara called them not to pay their taxes to the Treasury, but hurry up now Gbagbo armed men for extortion. More sources of cash are scarce Gbagbo, his reactions are more extreme.Latest: the requisition of banks, including subsidiaries of BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, which closed this week.
How long will even the outgoing president? "Gbagbo has already dipped into its reserves before his election to buy votes. He sprinkled a lot, "says geographer Christian Bouquet. The UN estimates that he must find each month to 150 million dollars to pay 104,000 civil servants and 55,000 soldiers. Clan of the outgoing president said he could take two months "without problem". Impossible to verify. Meanwhile, the Ivorian economy, deprived of its banks is disintegrating.
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