Tuesday is likely to be as calm Monday in the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 session begins at equilibrium, up slightly from 0.10% to 3907.51 points. The London Stock Exchange opened from 0.20% to 5618.01 points while the Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange began the session down slightly from 0.05% to 5872.57 points.
Yesterday, the Paris markets have ended on a slight decline of 0.18% despite opening in the green (0.35%). In Asia, the situation calmed after the euphoria of Monday. The numbers of U.S. employment, less worse than expected, to cease their invigorating effect. Monday already, Wall Street closed haphazardly in a sitting motionless.
The wait dominates before the publication of figures and important clues on the weekend.French side, there will be foreign trade figures for January and industrial output (Wednesday), the French deficit figures, the trade balance and the number of weekly unemployment in the United States (Thursday), and finally, the much anticipated index of U.S. consumer confidence (Friday).
Today's meeting will be hosted by the new corporation. Two publications of annual results of companies in particular should lead the market: those of Eurotunnel and EADS, the latter having also announced that he threw the towel in the bidding on ravitalleurs for the U.S. Army .
EADS in the collimator
EADS announced on Tuesday a loss in 2009 of 763 million euros against a profit last year of 1.5 billion.The group expects a 2010 EBIT of $ 1 billion against 2.2 billion (before provisions) last year, and a stabilization of sales to 42.8 billion euros. Furthermore, EADS and its U.S. ally Northrop Grumman said the night they did not submit a bid for the tanker contract from the U.S. Air Force, saying it benefits their competitor Boeing payday advance low fees .
April said Monday up 20% of its net 2009 profit 72.7 million euros. Financial products have more than doubled to 18.6 million. The insurer expects for 2010 a double-digit growth in its gross margin, with a positive impact on its operating margin (13% in 2009).
Total confirmed yesterday the closure of the refinery at Dunkirk and the fulfillment of its participation in the construction of an LNG terminal with EDF.
In addition, the electrician announced a collaboration with Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy giant, in the development of reactors for third countries. Other partnerships are being negotiated with Russia in the field of electricity and fuel.
Sanofi Aventis and Merck announced Tuesday the creation of a joint venture equally owned in the area of animal health together their subsidiaries Merial and Intervet / Schering-Plow. The agreement created should be finalized within the next twelve months.
Eurotunnel remained in the black in 2009, with net income of 1.4 million euros but a turnover of 571 million euros, down 16%. Jacques Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO, recalls in an interview with Le Figaro, his intention to "market share" in the future. The group will pay the same dividend as last year, ie 4 cents per share."The payment of a dividend reflects our confidence and determination in 2010," commented Jacques Gounon.
Vicat release after market close.
"INTERVIEW – J. Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO comments on 2009 results
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Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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After the sharp market downturn in Paris last weekend, with the Cac 40 lost nearly 7% in 48 hours, optimism is in order at the beginning of the week Award paris.le CAC 40 is up 0.89% to 3595 points.
On the macroeconomic front, gross domestic product (GDP) of France is expected to grow by 0.5% in first quarter 2010, according to a first estimate of the Banque de France (BdF) on Monday.
The latest forecast from the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) published December 17, the economic recovery in France will confirm in early 2010 but will be "laborious and delicate, with a growth of around 0.3 % to 0.4% per quarter until midyear.
The government recently revised upward its growth forecast for this year, rose 0.75% to 1.4% in the revised budget.
INSEE has published Friday its first figures on French growth in the last quarter of 2009. The government forecasts a GDP drop of 2.25% over the last year.
The detailed values to follow.
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The "opinion leaders" have not yet digested the crisis. The distrust that policymakers feel about financial institutions and banking remains strong, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer 2010 *. The distance is widening not just with the general public. The confidence rating of banks has melted most of the 22 countries of the investigation by the public relations agency. In the United States, for example, has dropped 39 points in three years, falling from 68% in 2007 to 29% in 2010. It is even lower in France, 21% in 2010 (against 41% in 2007).
The technology sector has the symbol
More generally, the confidence of elite companies to progress (54% of "opinion leaders" interviewed). Except in France, where it remains at a very low level (37% this year against 36% last year). If the banking and insurance are at the bottom of the table, the technology sector is racing ahead.Nearly 80% of elites trust it globally, and 70% in France. "The elites can not forgive the banking sector's responsibility in the crisis," Journet analysis Isabelle Rahe, president of Edelman France, in presenting the study. "Beyond the economic impact, it is the lack of transparency that is punished quite heavily."
Pessimism about the lessons learned from the crisis
The opacity of the financial system is well and truly under fire from critics. For 67% of respondents in 22 countries, transparency is a major asset in building the reputation of a company to the responsible management of human resources (63%) and civic attitudes (50%)."The elite give more confidence to businesses that engage in society beyond the creation of wealth and employment," says Antoine Harary, director of StrategyOne, the subsidiary of Edelman specializes in studies and assessments Marketing and Public Relations free credit report online .
But transparency and civic engagement are not everything. As stressed in the barometer makers fear that companies will not return to their "old habits", ignoring the lessons of the crisis. They are 68% internationally and 74% in France to expect that the famous "business as usual" make a comeback after the crisis. Pessimism up to nourish the hope that the elite opinion.That's about profound changes in their working methods that companies will be judged in the future.
* The 11th edition of the Edelman Trust Barometer was conducted among 4875 opinion leaders in 22 countries. The "opinion leaders", according to the criteria of Edelman, are graduates, who earn high incomes and are closely watching the news business and politics.
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Companies that have lost or gained the confidence of French in 2009
Edelman StrategyOne France and joined the research institute OpinionWay to conduct a further study with a sample of 1,000 French.These forty companies have found French or international, citing those in which they more or less confident today than in 2008. Notably, the Post is named in both charts.
• Winners
Google: 31%
E. Leclerc: 26%
Post: 26%
EDF: 24%
France TV: 21%
• Losers
France Telecom: 36%
Societe Generale: 33%
SNCF: 32%
Post: 30%
Total: 30%
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The United Kingdom is concerned that a boomerang effect will weaken his come back. On January 1, VAT is in fact rise to 17.5%, having been exceptionally lowered to 15% for a year to boost consumption. Economists from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think again increase the VAT rate could be "stalling a recovery in its infancy."
The Center for Economic Research, which called in July 2008 a decrease of 5% tax, advance that have prolonged the VAT at 15% until July 2010. Joerg Radeke, economist at CEBR, said that the consumer will still need a boost in the first half. Inflation should indeed start rising, exceeding the 3%, which should lead to a decrease of 0.7% of household spending.In 2010, consumption would fall by 0.2%, according to economist.
The test balances
The effects of the rise in VAT rates could soon be visible through balances. If the high shopping season has started on the Bleeding Edge, economists fear it is only a deadweight, consumers rushing to the shelves before the tax goes back to 17.5 %. "They certainly have some early purchases in November and December," Analysis Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, senior economist at BNP Paribas.
The decline in consumption expected in early 2010 should still be written off by the pricing of retail giants such as Tesco. The largest British retail group has decided not to pass on the rising rate of VAT on certain non-food products.This should enable consumers to save another 12 million pounds (13.4 million euros), according to the distributor. The Sainsbury and Home Retail, among others, have also decided to sacrifice their margins.
Beneficial effects difficult to measure
In total, Jörg Radeke the CEBR believes that the rise in VAT rates, premature, and likely to "wipe out most of the benefits had been reduced fee. Still, it is difficult to estimate what were these "benefits" in 2009. According to the CEBR, reduced VAT rates contributed 0.5% to growth of British GDP.
The effect has not been miraculous. While passing the reduced rate, in the first quarter of 2009, "Private consumption fell 1.5% from fourth quarter of 2008, after a similar decline over the previous period," said Caroline Newhouse-Cohen.A decrease which stabilized until July. But economists agree that even if the measure has cost 4.3 billion pounds (4.8 billion euros) to the Treasury, the economic situation would have been worse without it.
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When the SGC prepares to launch a takeover market … the powerful Caisse centrale social activities (CCAS) of electricity and gas industries, the equivalent of a supercomité company EDF and GDF, managed by the communist union , the well would hand over the Compagnie Internationale Andre Trigano (CIAT), publicly traded company valued over 80 million euros. The company, better known under its consumer brand Campéole, is a specialist camping and tent.
The operation should be discussed at the Board of Directors of the CCAS Wednesday. It creates a stir internally. One branch of the CGT, the CGT union Ectam-Staff headquarters EDF and social organizations, objects."The case is disproportionate," denounces the union in a statement.
The central fund social activities is the biggest works of France, with a budget of nearly half a billion euros and over 3 000 permanent employees. Its management has been pinned in the past by the Court of Auditors. As part of its operations in recreation for employees of EDF and GDF, it already manages 60,000 beds in holiday resorts, including 48 000 of which he owns. By placing hands on the Trigano group, it would greatly enhance its ability to host. To become the first player in the sector. The CIAT is the leader in three-star campsite with 43 sites and 14 000 places, which would correspond to about 72 000 beds. It also has a second activity: the manufacture of tents and canvas bungalows.In total, the company achieved a turnover of 43 million euros last year and suffered a loss of nearly one million.
Several applications
The story begins at the time of the first paid leave, with a workshop created by Raymond tarpaulins Trigano, father of Andrew, who is developing the "triganette, a family tent where you can stand. Andrew continues the adventure after the war, while his brother Gilbert resumed Club Mediterranee, which leases its tents in the family business.
The founder and his family still control over 30% stake in the company whose majority shareholder is the fund managed by Groupama Acto. Its Listed raises other applications than the CCAS. Bernard Laporte is interested too, so that Promeo, which owns the Village Family camping.
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Turbulence, again, for the U.S. economy yesterday, the Financial CIT Group, a key player in SME finance – with more than one million customers – said he put himself under the protection of Bankruptcy Law. The figures speak for themselves: the extent of ILC assets are valued at about five billion dollars, it is the fifth largest bankruptcy in history of the United States. After those of Lehman Brothers (2008), Washington Mutual (2008), WolrdCom (2002), and General Motors (2008). However, CIT said in a statement that the process concerns only the parent, who hopes to reduce its debt of 10 billion dollars. The agencies of CIT and its subsidiaries should be able to continue operating. The group's difficulties have sharply accelerated in July.After having already injected 2.3 billion dollars in December, Washington has refused this time to rescue CIT.
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Nicole who? Nicole Notat. The former boss of the CFDT has perhaps gone the media landscape, it nevertheless remains active. She who was the first woman to lead a trade union confederation in France is now CEO of Vigeo, a rating agency social enterprises. She oversees a team to issue ratings of companies based on criteria that are not only financial but also social (wage policy, governance, …) or on sustainable development. Member of the High Authority against Discrimination and for Equality (Halde) – three half-days per month we entrust Does she paid 100 euros each to examine possible cases of discrimination, it is also Member of the Century, a renowned think tank.
Invited Talk Friday on France Info Net (in partnership with lefigaro.fr with lexpress.fr this week), she initially welcomed the decision "wise and good" Jean Sarkozy not to run for the presidency of the Institution public management of Defense (EPAD). "He did not measure what it meant to be called Sarkozy" Justice does, arguing that the case was "ill-fitted" but that its outcome could ultimately serve the individual. In contrast, it rose against the argument of youth and inexperience of the son of the Head of State that would preclude taking the head of the EPAD.
On another topic, suicide France Telecom, Nicole Notat said it was "shocked at the debate on the statistical approach", triggered this week by a statistician INSEE Cross.Asked about the citizen voting held recently on the future of La Poste, she said: "I would not have voted in the sense of loss'. To recall, almost all of the voters said no to the question "The government wants to change the status of La Poste to privatize, do you agree with this project?" A formulation challenged by the right.
Member of the commission that reflects the future large loan, Nicole Notat said, personally – but said this should be the amount suggested by the committee that it should be between 30 and 50 billion euros . A committee should also recommend to borrow at lower cost, ie banks rather than at French.Direction as already outlined by Alain Juppé as Michel Rocard, who headed the commission.
Watch this first sequence devoted to the news of the week:
In the second part of the show, Nicole Notat deplored the continuation of overseas banking practices on the bonus. "Distressing and disturbing," she said while welcoming the steps in the right direction made during the last G20. The President of Vigeo also substantially clarified the mission of his company, his metodes work. A relatively new, little known to the French, who suffered from the financial crisis. "If only we had already criticized," she implored on the tone of the joke, measuring the long road to go to educate the French investissemnt socially repsonse (SRI).Asked about the social ratings of France Telecom, hit by a wave of suicides, in terms of criteria Vigeo, she conceded that it should find it deteriorated.The report on the public company is "being finalized".
The second part of the show:
During the latter part of the show, Nicole Notat responded to questions from users: use of older (she presented a report to Laurent Wauquiez and believes that companies will be behind the goals set by the government), evolution CFDT, role of media work Halde, etc..
The end of the show:
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Before Christmas is the time for chocolate. While the cocoa harvest in full swing, the courses of the famous bean reach new levels. In New York, a ton is trading at historical prices, around 3 390 dollars per tonne, as in London where 2 150 pounds per tonne have been exceeded. A steep climb in a short time.
"In the lull of summer, we were only 1 400 pounds per tonne. The market has changed dramatically since the funds are interested. It is not uncommon to see variations of 8% in one day, "says Jean-Paul Burrus, president of Salpa family group, owner of Chocolatier La Marquise de Sevigne. "Previously, that happened only when the coup. But now, the market became very volatile and there are more rules.We need to cover by buying futures a year, "says the businessman who uses each year 1 000 tonnes of cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire, Trinidad or Venezuela.
Global consumption is around 3 million tonnes per year, representing 3 to 4 billion euros turnover per year. What makes cocoa the third tropical agricultural commodity exchanged most, behind sugar and coffee.
Several factors explain the high rating current cocoa prices. First of growing speculation. "Since late August, there is renewed interest in risky markets and hence for agricultural commodities, said Vincent Geiger COUTIER at New Edge. They have the attraction of funds, because they represent a good bulwark against the inflationary pressures in a recovery scenario and good coverage on the foreign exchange market.The currency in which they are denominated, the dollar and the pound collapsed. "
Tensions on the course
In addition, there are factors specific to the cocoa market. "For five days, a strike is raging in Côte d'Ivoire, the largest producer with alone one third of the world's cocoa, and it is unclear whether the country will produce the psychological threshold of one million tonnes. Enough reason for a little more tension on the course.
Demand side is the explosion. Celebrations New Year approaching. "We sell more than half of our chocolates at Christmas," said Jean-Paul Burrus. Furthermore, new players entered the market with a consumption curve exponentially. "With rising living standards, demand is increasing in China and India," says Vincent Geiger.In Europe, sales also rose, perhaps because of the crisis, chocolate is considered by many as the best antidepressant!
In fifteen years, the French consumption has almost doubled from 4 to 7.5 kilograms per year per capita. It is still a few bars of Swiss, European champions with 11 kg. But ahead of Italy and Spain, with only two kilos.
Finally, the greedy have to fear a surge in prices of the tablet or small box? Hard to say, for Vincent Geiger. This will vary from one industry to another, as was more or less well covered against the higher prices for financial instruments and is ready or not to trim its margins. Strategies very secret. The Marquise de Sevigne excludes any increase in the short term, being forearmed against this risk.In addition, prices are fixed for a long time for some commands, such as works councils.
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Yogurt machine is restarted. Thanks to price cuts, promotions and new standards more accessible, sales of Danone's dairy products rose 7% in volume in the third quarter. It's the largest increase since mid-2007.
So far, Danone had mostly favored the move upmarket with its brands Activia, Actimel and Danacol and rate increases. These were also made compulsory by the soaring price of milk. But the crisis had led to an alarming decline in volumes last year. In January, the group has initiated a program called reset ( "reset"). To boost volumes, each subsidiary has revised its product positioning and pricing in each of its markets (yoghurt, water, infant nutrition and medical nutrition).
Franck Riboud, Danone's boss has welcomed the success of these "operational adjustments."We did not only correct, but have been effective and rapid implementation, said without false modesty, the CEO. We have completed the repositioning of our products before the end of the year. "
A year ago, Danone was advised that because of the deteriorating economy, growing its sales in 2009 would be "less than a few points" in its medium-term target of between 8 and + + 10%. According to details made this Friday, the group table in fact now an annual growth of 2.8%.
While this is a very sharp slowdown in growth of sales, Danone has proven its ability to react and managed to accelerate the pace since January.In the third quarter, all regions are growing, even Europe, which was down in the first half.
Volvic and Evian in progress
Above all, "we gained market share in the three quarters of our markets," insists Peter Andre Térisse, the CFO. He also noted that milk prices would increase, "but return to significant increases in 2008." Danone may therefore increase some of its prices, "while remaining competitive."
Other good news: the return to form of the bottled water division, which is experiencing its strongest growth since early 2008. "Danone has its strong presence in Asia, the area that draws economic recovery," said Lee Linthium, head of research for Euromonitor.The institute predicts that sales of bottled water will increase by 8% in Asia this year, thanks to economic recovery in urban areas, where consumption of these products is higher.
Even in developed countries, Danone waters are rising again this summer, especially in France, the United Kingdom and Germany. With the impact of weather, but not only. "The sales made under Volvic promotion grew by 40%," says one Danone. In recent weeks, the promotion efforts made on Evian, the brand's flagship division, are even more important. Here again, priority is given to the volumes to boost sales.
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