The approach of Christmas has meant a return to stability for the Paris financial market. The CAC 40 has almost regained the level Friday it had reached the end of 2009, surpassing the 3,900 points of accuracy. It is true that after months of tension, the French index shows a nice rebound by 8% since the beginning of the month. This makes December the most brilliant of the Paris Bourse for ten years.
Several reasons for this surge. Firstly, a lack of love for the bond market causing transfers of liquidity in equity markets, a phenomenon particularly noticed by the managers for two weeks. This is the first time that the phenomenon occurs since the beginning of the financial crisis in autumn 2008.
Rather favorable outlook also served markets. The company forecasts are positive and well-oriented macroeconomic indicators.Finally, the current undervaluation of the Paris stock attracts more and more foreign investors. This has led to the week before Christmas with a leap of ACC, at its highest level this month on Tuesday, followed by three days of quiet consolidation.
Ambiguous attitude of investors
The average values have led the market. The specialist video games Ubisoft has gained 9.8%, and the group of utilities Derichebourg 9 low fee payday loans.3%. While on the foreign exchange market, where volumes were very low, the euro was stable against the dollar Friday. Not surprisingly, most markets were sluggish last week.This has also enabled ads stringent rating agency, on Portugal and Hungary in particular, to go unnoticed …
By December 31, some U.S. indicators, highly anticipated, would instead take out the financial markets of their torpor. This could be the case for the index of consumer confidence for December, which will be unveiled tomorrow, or that of economic activity in the Chicago area over the same period, published Thursday. Statistics will be added real estate, housing prices and promises of home sales in November. In all cases, the year ending reflects an ambivalent attitude of investors, shared between firms rather satisfactory results and concerns about the strength of the euro area, notably with the debt crises in Greece and Ireland .It should confirm the ability of some values, especially in luxury, to hold their own in the game LVMH is up 64.3% year on year, and PPR of 43.9%. Opposite, the rout will fit certain heavy finance, Axa losing 22.9% over the year and Crédit Agricole, 19.6%.
The euro seemed to stabilize after the Irish record. Appeasement has indeed installed these days on the single currency, while the European sovereign debt crisis does not appear to invade Portugal in the short term. But on Wednesday, ratings agency Moody's placed the debt rating of Spain's long-term negative watch, that will see any lowering of its Aa1 rating.
Thus, the euro resumed the downward slope: towards half-past twelve on Wednesday, the exchange rate euro / dollar fold from 0.45% to 1.3319 dollars after a foray to below $ 1.33 earlier this morning. As for equity markets, European stock markets are affected by the announcement from Moody's, and instead of Madrid falls more than 2%, breaking the symbolic and psychological 10,000 points.
Belgium under supervision
Other disappointing news in Europe, this time concerning Belgium.The rating agency Standard and Poor's placed the country on Tuesday notes on negative watch, paving the way for a potential degradation "within six months" if a government is formed "soon".
"Concerns related to the peripheral countries should continue to weigh on the euro over the next three months, although the EU summit this week could provide some support," commented Sara Yates, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
Thursday and Friday, is held in effect an EU summit in which Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup President, does not talk about his idea of Euro-bonds, because "'to a systemic crisis, it requires a systemic response.The "no" Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to draft Eurobonds issued by the Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker and the Italian Giulio Tremonti yet seemed to have framed this summit no fax cash loans.
General strike in Greece
Meanwhile, in Greece, the general strike in full swing. The country is deprived of this Wednesday, air, sea and rail, and its activity is idling, as part of a general strike against the rigors of 24 hours and two labor market reforms and public companies voted in the night .
For the third consecutive day after initially stoppages in transport, Athens was engaged in massive traffic jams by work stoppages subways, buses and trams, and in anticipation of a demonstration in the center by late morning.
A global economy plagued
On Tuesday, the euro was able to take a little height Parès publication of the ZEW index of German investor confidence, the better. And Tuesday night, the Committee of the Fed has not changed his address: the Federal Reserve found that the economic recovery in the United States was still not enough to cause a sustained fall in unemployment, led to the conclusion that reaffirm its quantitative easing program. The Federal Reserve kept its key rate and confirmed its intention not to raise it for a long period.
Also note the recent rise in the Swiss franc against the dollar. The Swiss currency took a breather on Wednesday but was chained up for five sessions in a row before. Swiss franc recovers its role as a refuge for excellence in global economic turmoil.On Wednesday, the rate dollar / Swiss franc 0.9631 rating. The pattern was the same against the euro, even more pronounced.
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Heavily criticized for his handling of the debt crisis, Angela Merkel can at least count on the support of Nicolas Sarkozy, will host today at Freiburg on the occasion of the thirteenth Cabinet Franco-German. On Thursday, the Elysee said there was "no place" to discuss the issue of Eurobonds, "while the Euro has come to an agreement on a permanent mechanism for crisis . The Chancellor strongly opposed on Monday the creation of "Eurobonds" advocated by Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup, and Giulio Tremonti, Italian Minister of Finance in order to pool European debts. "Such obligations do not allow competition among interest rates," Critical Angela Merkel, who considers the principle of common obligation contrary to the European treaties.
Annoyed, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg held the refusal of Berlin "anti-European", immediately attracting the wrath of the Chancellery. "That does not Europe, if its members qualify each other of anti-Europeans", replied the voice of Angela Merkel. These passages of arms between euro zone leaders bodes ill for the European Council next week will be devoted to the debt crisis.
Position "tactical"
Cabinet francoallemand Day aims to resolve differences through a united Franco-German.Without being hostile, in essence, the creation of Euro-bonds, or increase the Fiscal Stabilization Fund, advocated by the IMF, Paris, Berlin household, whose agreement is necessary to enter into a treaty European mechanism of stability (MES) enabling the rescue of a state of the eurozone, even impose on the private sector "restructuring" of the debt.
"The attitude of France is mostly tactical, because it has an obvious interest in having these Eurobonds" says Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian prime minister, MEP and astute observer of the Franco-German.Germany believes it has no incentive to let the Eurobonds, but if the pressure on the euro continues, it can not avoid it. "
By pooling some of their debts, most states in the euro area, including "PIIGS"-Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, would benefit from higher interest rates and a financial incentive to comply the Stability Pact. But Germany, she is afraid to pay more for debt issued jointly with unscrupulous borrowers. "If the German bond rate is lower than in the Eurobond, it must be a mechanism for financial compensation for Germany," says Guy Verhofstadt.
In this debate, France was careful to make revolutionary proposals, likely to hit Germany. "The Elysee is dedicated primarily to influence the German position, which is already not bad," says a diplomat.In Germany, the positions are already moving. On Thursday, a key government economic advisers, Peter Bofinger, expressed support for Eurobonds.
lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – Growth at half-mast, high public deficits and high volatility in financial markets. What management "value" is an attractive option for investors?
Benedict Schouler – By taking away the values called "glamorous" that everyone talks about, the operator "value" (management of buying undervalued companies and neglected by the financial markets, Ed) resists market pressure. Investing in such companies and allows investors to avoid speculative bubbles. By construction, management "value" is the best managements in the long term. (*)
Mary Ballorain, director of development in France Sparinvest
After a month spent in the hospital, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, was in Paris on Tuesday to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the reunification of Germany, before an audience of students, politicians and businessmen French gathered for the occasion at the Sorbonne. Negotiator of the treaty of reunification in 1989, a pillar of the Christian Democrats, German Finance Minister Angela Merkel has mostly used his visit to Paris to discuss the highly topical, especially the debt crisis in the euro area.
Ardent advocate of financial orthodoxy, and strong supporter of strong medicine to cure the ills of Euroland, Wolfgang Schäuble has detailed his vision of the mechanism for resolving crises, decided last week by the European Council.The bloc have agreed on principles, but have left two months to reveal its details, which does not fail to worry the markets (see below).
Unsurprisingly, Wolfgang Schäuble defended a vision of strict European rescue mechanism. In addition to financial penalties, it is favorable to the deprivation of voting rights in the European Council for countries that do not meet the fiscal discipline imposed by their peers.The term "orderly bankruptcy" or "restructuring" is not pronounced, but it transpires between the lines.
"The rescheduling of debts of a disorderly country should be avoided," said the German minister, but the states that are experiencing financial difficulties can not be expected that the Community aid without conditions. "
After 2013, the European rescue will no longer be synonymous with full insurance, as is currently the case with the Fiscal Stabilization Fund low fee payday loans. "The private sector must be a central element of the mechanism," he assures.Holders of bonds receive a risk premium, but in case of crisis, they actually have to bear this risk, the household at the same time the taxpayer. "
Stop the Speculators
Leaves to increase the volatility of markets, which fear capital losses for holders of government bonds on the occasion of future bailouts, Wolfgang Schäuble launches: "Monetary union was never designed as a model Enrichment for financial speculators. This is not a system of distribution from rich to poorer countries as part of a union transfers. "The German version of the next amendment to the treaty is put. It is very clear.Attached to the clause "no bail out" (principle of non-bailout) that will go down in the Treaty, Berlin wants to add a mechanism for restructuring, which will not allow free private bond holders, including banks and insurance.
Wolfgang Schäuble has also benefited from his presence in Paris to defend the excellence of German economic model, based on exports and competitiveness, but criticized in France because it neglects the wages and consumption. "Germany has imposed structural reforms that have contributed to the competitiveness of the European Union," he said. A polite way of saying that Germany, with its renewed growth will not abandon his model, the displeasure of his neighbors.
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The Senate has largely adopted Friday night raising the legal age of retirement from 60 to 62 years by 186 votes against 153. The UMP and centrist senators voted for the measure of the bill on pensions, and their colleagues Socialists and Communists voted against. The vote in line by the Senate, this provision has already been adopted by the Assembly gives final. It is no longer possible to change the course of parliamentary procedure, except to abandon the entire bill.
This highly symbolic vote comes amid a new day of strikes and demonstrations will take place Tuesday. Speakers Socialists and Communists had numerous requests to explain his vote. "If you live longer is because we work less!" Thundered John Desessard (Greens, Paris)."I repeat that 62 years from 2018 will weigh less heavily biologically than 60 years since 1982, replied Eric Woerth. In past centuries, it was old at 45 or 50 years, "said Minister of Labour.
"Right almost fundamental"
Pierre Mauroy, first prime minister Francois Mitterrand from 1981 to 1984, defended in a calm voice retirement at age 60 he had himself established by ordinance in 1982. "We think this is a fundamental right almost," said Senator North PS. The 1982 Act establishing the retirement age of 60, "is the most important law may be of the Fifth Republic, the French have been waiting for," he said. "The wind on the sly that way, it is not possible."
For Pierre Mauroy reform will hurt primarily the employees who perform hazardous occupations."Everyone is faced with his duty, Mr. Prime Minister, Eric Woerth told him. We face a situation of reality. "
Amendment adopted on Disability
The Upper House was then engaged in Friday night to Saturday Review of Article 6 of the bill that postpones 65 to 67 years of age to obtain a full pension regardless of the number of guaranteed approval cash advance loans quarters assessed. The government amendment to this Article 6, which remains at 65 years of age to retire without discount for parents of disabled children, for its part has been adopted. This is one of two amendments announced Thursday by the government.
A sub-amendment group president Nicolas About Centrist Union, who extends this measure to the parents of a disabled adult in their care at home, has also been voted.
"The number of beneficiaries will be considerably clipped," but noted Isabelle Pasquet (PCF). It is "a trickle" Guy "added Fischer (PCF). Bernard Frimat (PS) ruled that the amendment "very inadequate" regretting his "lack of generosity." The PS, however, voted for the amendment of the Government "while saying as much harm as possible" while the communist group abstained.
Right, the vote was not unanimous. Jacqueline Panis (UMP) found the advanced "inadequate" and announced that she abstained.Alain Millon (UMP) has also expressed reservations saying "anxious" to the government amendment.
A vote Monday on the postponement to 67 years
The meeting was then adjourned at approximately 3:15. A compromise was reached between the President of the Senate UMP Gérard Larcher, and the opposition, which intended to continue its guerrilla cons parliamentary reform. Right and left have finally agreed that Article 6 be voted on Monday afternoon.
The PS group welcomed "the vote on the heart of the text should wait until next week." "The president had set the media schedule on Thursday morning:" concessions "announced at the last minute and adopted before the weekend to undermine social protest. This strategy has backfired.Indeed, the government's amendments were met with fierce resistance from the left, "he adds.
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The euro has surpassed the $ 1.40 on Thursday, reviving concerns of Europeans for their exports in a world tempted by competitive devaluations. For a month, the euro has gained 9% against the dollar, and over 10% against the yuan. "At $ 1.40 per euro, it's tough to 1.50, it's terrible," said Patrick Artus, head of research at Natixis. "Louis Welsh recalled recently: at that price, it no longer manufactures Airbus in Europe," added the economist.
This increase in European currency falls even more ill, with the exception of Germany, the eurozone is significantly lagging behind the global recovery, mired in its deficits and unemployment. The IMF forecasts 1.7% growth in the euro zone this year, against 2.7% in the United States.
The European Commission has sounded the alarm on Thursday."We currently estimate that the euro will bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment of exchange rates in the world and that (…) this could affect the economic recovery, exports, said Thursday the spokesperson of Olli Rehn Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs.
After requesting a significant reevaluation of the yuan, the European Union looks to the United States, suspected of letting slip the dollar by deliberately lax monetary policy to help exports. "For Europe, the current monetary imbalances is a crucial issue in the context of a fragile recovery and uncertainties. We will continue to tell the Chinese but also to the Americans and Mr. Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary, said the European Commission.
The "war of currencies" will be at the heart of the meeting of finance ministers of G7 countries in Washington on Friday.The yuan and the dollar are not the only ones in the dock: the yen is also covered, while the Bank of Japan, which is massively intervened in the foreign exchange market, resumed this week with the zero interest rate policy and redemptions to combat deflation, the yen and lower business card templates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which holds its annual meeting this weekend in Washington, is committed, through the voice of its director general Dominique Strauss-Kahn, to make "proposals" to avoid war exchange. But the task is not easy.
Reflect fundamental
Even in Europe, all capitals are not on the same wavelength, which complicates the task of Jean-Claude Trichet, the guardian of monetary stability."Excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse effects on economic and financial stability," he said Thursday the president of the ECB at the end of the meeting of the Board of Governors.
Translation: After the fall of the spring, the euro rises too quickly, even to countries traditionally attached to the strong euro: Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Questioned at length on the current price of the euro, a subject he usually takes care to avoid, Jean-Claude Trichet dropped a comment that did not fail to awaken the markets. "More than ever, I believe that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals," he said.
But the "fundamentals" – growth, current account surpluses – are still more favorable to the U.S. as the euro area."I agree with the American authorities when they believe they reaffirm a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States of America," said Jean-Claude Trichet. "We will have the opportunity to exchange views on the subject with, in particular, the authorities, central bank governors and finance ministers of major floating currencies in Washington," he added, suggesting that G7 could make a statement on currencies may push up the dollar. It did not take more for the euro falls to $ 1.39 by midday Thursday.
After the fifth day of action since late March against the pension reform, a clear line separates the central unions.
There is one side the "diehards" who hope no progress senators. FOR, FSU and Solidarity (SUD) are calling the "withdrawal" of the bill, "non-negotiable, non-amendable" to them. These three centers offer to move to the next level and call for renewed strike. CGT rocking slowly in the camp, while not requiring the withdrawal of the text, and relies on the mobilization to roll back government.
While rejecting this reform "unfair and unequal", the other unions are expecting a number of advances to the Senate. "They understood that the government would not back on the fundamentals of the law and they try to improve at the margin", decrypts an expert in social relations.This is particularly the case of the CFDT, a duet with the UNSA.
"Elected officials are saying that we are right"
The plant led by Francois Chereque wishes to grant to all employees, automatically, a year "free" premium for ten years of exposure to psychosocial strain at work (night work, noise, vibration, contact with carcinogenic … ). It also calls for maintaining 65 years of retirement without discount, at least for women and casual workers for careers fragmented. This measure would cost about 3 billion euros per year, with the Central Reform also proposes to save by limiting the increase of 10% of the pensions paid to fathers and mothers of three or more children same day payday loans. "We can redeploy unfair to finance family benefits some progress," explains Jean-Louis Malys, M. Retreats CFDT."There's a real openness on these issues," he hopes. Senate President Gerard Larcher, has been an open time for reflection, but the Elysee slows the four irons.
The CFE-CGC plays his own music. She seeks to create new resources, as in the public, a "shield retirement guaranteeing private sector employees a specific replacement rate (pension amount from the previous salary).
The union executive has two other claims: taking into account the contribution period, years of study or, alternatively, qualifying periods (the Assembly has agreed in principle but referred its terms of entry in force to a report published in 2011 by the government) and the abolition of the income ceiling for receiving a widow's pension in the private sector (which prevents widows and survivors earn income from work).
Two themes "on which many politicians from the majority tell us that we are right," says Daniele Karniewicz, the representative of the CFE-CGC, but not among the flexibilities envisaged at the Elysee. "For the Senate to show that they have a genuine autonomy, as they claim," says Daniele Karniewicz … without excessive optimism.
Finally, the CFTC hopes to persuade senators to raise the CSG and allocate the resources generated in the pension industry.
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Wall Street should open very cautious on Monday, before the employment figures expected later in the week. The index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.08% respectively at 1064.50 points and 1791.75 points to 0.14%.The Dow should open almost at equilibrium.
Friday, already, the New York Stock Exchange had closed up, apparently reassured by the downward revision in less severe than expected U.S. growth in the second quarter U.S. GDP in fact increased by 1.6% in the second quarter against 1.4% expected recently, but against 2.4% expected in the first estimate.
Despite a speech by Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole somewhat mixed, the U.S. stock market saw on Friday, the Dow Jones climbing 1.6% to 10,150 points and the Nasdaq 1.6% to clinch also 2153 points.
Expenditure and household income to menu
The macroeconomic agenda this week on horseback in August and September will be followed by particular investors. From this Monday, are expected before the opening of trading, will be announced at 14:30, expenditure and household income for the month of August.On Tuesday, it will house prices and economic activity in the Chicago area in August and, finally, the consumer confidence that will be published. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be dominated by such employment with, successively, the ADP employment figures, entries weekly, and finally unemployment figures and the August employment savings account payday advance.
On the corporate side, the spectacle of mergers acquisitions poursuit.3Par soared 25% to 32.5 million.As for her suitors, HP has increased its prices by 3 to 27-30 dollars, Dell has aligned its offer Friday morning on $ 27.
The German manufacturer Infineon Semiconductor announced Monday the sale of his division's wireless, which makes components for mobile phones, to Intel for U.S. $ 1.4 billion (nearly 1.1 billion euros).
The CEO of Sanofi-Aventis, which formalized Sunday his intention to acquire U.S. biotech Genzyme to $ 18.5 billion, said that "some time may elapse" by launching a offer, in an interview with Voices dated Monday.Sanofi-Aventis announced on Sunday a proposal for acquisition of U.S. biotech group Genzyme for a price of 69 dollars per share, totaling $ 18.5 billion (14.5 billion euros).
The Indian government was to meet Monday officials from the Canadian manufacturer of BlackBerry (RIM) to try to break the deadlock over access to encrypted data from the phone, on the eve of the ultimatum on the blocking of two services mail.
French insurer Axa has reduced by almost half its share in the prestigious U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs, the center of criticism for his role in the Greek crisis, according to documents from the regulatory authority of the U.S. markets (SEC) .
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