U.S. equity markets continued their advance on Thursday. Driven by new results above expectations, the Dow Jones gained 0.15% to 12,470.23 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.46% to 2815.33 points and the S & P 500 advance from 0.41% to 1335.86 points. Last night, Wall Street has ended the highest in almost three years, driven primarily by technology stocks after a new burst of better than expected results in the area.
This morning the Asian market also finished in the green. The Nikkei rose 0.82% especially at 9685 points. The OECD has released its updated forecast on the Japanese economy after the earthquake that devastated parts of the archipelago.The organization believes that after an increase of sound, gross domestic product by 3.9% in 2010, Japan will only show 0.8% growth this year and 2.3% in 2012.
The dollar still s'affablit
On the foreign exchange market, the euro climbed against the dollar ever. In early afternoon in Paris, the euro bought 1.4573 dollars against 1.4521 dollars late Wednesday. The greenback lost ground against all major currencies amid renewed optimism in financial markets.
Oil prices were progressing on Thursday at the market opening in New York, a barrel of benchmark rose 21 cents to 111.66 dollars, still worn by a weak dollar but limited by a disappointing indicator on employment in the U.S. .
On the macroeconomic front, new jobless claims fell for the second week of April at 403,000 according to figures released by the Labor Department.Analysts had forecast a return below the bar of 400,000 to 390,000 exactly.
At 16 hours, the composite indicator of economic activity will be unveiled in March, and the index of activity in the Philadelphia area in April, traditionally a leading indicator of economic conditions in the United States.
Apple in its sights
Apple: 2.97% to 352.59 dollars
Apple has posted a net profit almost doubled (+95% to 5.99 billion euros) and well above expectations for the second quarter of fiscal offset, worn by the continued success of iPhones.The sales increased for its 83%.
Schlumberger: 3.08% to 90.60 dollars
In the oil sector, the services group Schlumberger has seen its net profit jumped 40% in the first quarter to 944 million, without return to its previous quarter and meet market expectations because of bad weather and tensions in the Middle East.
Qualcomm: 3.55% to 57.23 dollars
The chip maker Qualcomm for mobile ad a profit of 999 million dollars in the first quarter, also well above analysts' expectations.The turnover of 3.9 billion also exceeded expectations.
BP: 0.69% to 46.23 dollars
The British oil company BP, which is listed on Wall Street announced Thursday that it filed a complaint with the U.S. against the American company Halliburton, accusing him of having contributed to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, more prosecutions launched against Transocean and Cameron International. According to various analysts BP would claim $ 40 billion in specialist offshore oil drilling
American Express: -1.19% to 46.44 dollars
Large U.S. banks have significantly improved their performance, but mainly due to reversals, as shown by figures published yesterday by American Express and Wells Fargo. The financial services group announced a 33% increase in profits to 1.2 billion.Turnover was up 7% to $ 7 billion.
Wells Fargo: -0.54% to 28.68 dollars
The U.S. bank has issued a profit "record" for the first quarter, up 51% over a year and better than expected thanks to a drop in provisions for credit losses. In contrast, the turnover reached 20.3 billion, down 6% year on year, due to a decline in revenue "from the mortgage and interest rates."
Yum! Brands: 6.48% to 54.89 dollars
Also after the close-food chain Yum! Brands (Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell) announced an increase of 10% of its profit to 264 million.The group benefits from the strong growth of the Chinese economy but the U.S. market remains difficult.
NYSE Euronext: 0.51% to 39.28 dollars
Also note, the Director General of the transatlantic exchange operator NYSE Euronext, Duncan Niederauer, has defended its proposed merger with Deutsche Börse, the finding most relevant to the strategic plan a takeover by Nasdaq and the ICE documentation he said decommissioning.
McDonald's: -1.90% to 76.91 dollars
The fast food giant McDonald's on Thursday posted a net profit of $ 1.2 billion for the first quarter, up 11% year on year, while analysts had forecast a profit of 1.19 billion.The group's turnover amounted to 6.1 billion, up 9% year on year (7% excluding currency effect) and slightly higher than the projected $ 6.0 billion on average by analysts.
Travelers: 2.99% to 60.90 dollars
The insurance company Travelers U.S. net earnings up sharply (+29%) in the first quarter to 839 million, above expectations in favor of increased investment income.
Blackrock: 1.06% to 195.78 dollars
The first asset manager worldwide, BlackRock, did better than expected by the markets during the first quarter with a jump of 34% (yoy) in net profit to 568 million, without repeat performance of the previous quarter.
Dupont: -0.38% to $ 23.50
The U.S. chemical group DuPont, who tried to seize the Danish manufacturer of food additives Danisco, saw its profit rise to 1.43 billion dollars against 1.13 billion a year earlier. Thomson Reuters gave consensus earnings per share of $ 1.36. Turnover grew 18% to 10 billion dollars for a consensus of 9.19 billion.
General Electric: -1.64% to 20.05 dollars
The U.S. conglomerate General Electric on Thursday posted a net profit after minority interests up 80% to $ 3.36 billion for the first quarter (consensus $ 2.8 billion).Turnover was up 6% to 38.45 billion dollars, as investors had expected a 5% reflux.
Morgan Stanley: 3.38% to 26.92 dollars
The U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley on Thursday posted a net profit after minority interests fell sharply by 48% YoY to 736 million. Turnover declined by 16% year on year to 7.6 billion over the first three months of the year, below analysts' forecasts which averaged $ 7.9 billion.
Verizon: -1.98% to 37.04 dollars
The U.S. telephone company Verizon on Thursday issued a profit, group share more than tripled in the first quarter and just above expectations of 1.44 billion.Turnover rose by 0.3% to 26.99 billion dollars, while the market expected a decline of 0.1%.
United Continental: -1.47% to 20.72 dollars
The U.S. airline Continental United has cut its net loss in the first quarter to 213 million, but that came out below expectations of Wall Street and who was accompanied by an increase in turnover and better than expected.
The success of touch pads for the first time contributes to the decline in sales of computers. That is what the preliminary results of a study conducted by Gartner. The global PC market was 84.3 million units in the first quarter 2011, down 1.1% over the same period last year. These figures show a decline in sales of computers, first for 18 months. And this, when Gartner expected a rise of 3% for the first quarter of 2011.
"The low prices of consumer computers, which had long sustained growth, failed to attract buyers. Consumers have turned to the shelves and other multimedia devices in place, "says the study report, Gartner analyst, Mikako Kitagawa, noting however that the business market can limit the overall decline."With the launch of the iPad 2 in February, consumers turned to the purchase of alternative devices, or have simply chosen to buy a computer. We are studying whether this trend will have a long-term effect on the PC market. "
Declining sales due to currency
The general downward trend is however subject to disparities. If the European and Middle East is showing the first signs of decline "since the end of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, computer sales in Asia were up by 4.1% with 28.2 million computers for the first quarter of this year. Japan, devastated by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11, recorded the biggest drop in sales with -13.1% with only 4 million computers sold. In contrast, sales of computers in the Asia-Pacific are still growing.The Latin American market shows him the strongest momentum with an increase of 5.4% to 8.1 million units.
A lifetime of computers longer
"The consequences of events in the Middle East and Japan do not directly affect sales, but still a factor influencing the market in the short term, the findings by Gartner joins Jay Chou, senior analyst firm IDC Worldwide. "However, good quality computer products have become a reality today, with the advent of laptops, and more recently, multimedia tablet," he said in a statement. Bob O'Donnell, IDC wordlwide, is more reserved: "It is tempting to attribute the entire decline (the market) to the development of multimedia tablet, but we believe that other factors such as life longer PCs have had roles as important. "
Over the full year, Gartner predicts that sales of computers continue to "support" from their 2010 level. The upgrading of computer equipment should make it possible to support the market until late this year or early 2012.
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LE FIGARO – What are the economic consequences for Japan?
Jean-Pierre Petit – Contrary to what we believed in the early hours of the earthquake, the impact is probably greater than that of Kobe in 1995, which cost 10,000 billion yen, or 2.5% of GDP. The affected area this time, north-east, weighs 8% of GDP against 4% for Japanese Kobe, and it includes many production units and automotive electronics. But the most serious is the risk that nuclear has a direct impact on energy resources, since the nuclear provides 25% of national electricity consumption.This is the novel aspect of this tragedy is still not able consequences even if they tend to be exaggerated by the markets.
Could there be a rapid rebound in the economy?
It's terrible to say but disasters still have a stimulating effect in the short / medium term impact on the economy when the state starts rebuilding. Japan's GDP rose by 5% annualized rate during the three quarters that followed the disaster in Kobe. Provided that the nuclear situation eventually stabilized, it will be the same this time all the opposition has indicated it would follow the government's economic stimulus projects.In absolute terms, Japan has a debt problem, which represents 200% of its GDP, but this does not prevent him from borrowing in good condition because 95% of this debt is held by the Japanese.
What are the consequences for the global economy?
A Japanese recession would not have much impact on the global economy. At its peak in the early 1990s, Japan accounted for 18% of global GDP in current dollars. Today, it represents only 9%. Japan – with U.S. – the least open of the major developed countries, it acts early in the production chain and there is a net exporter. A slowdown in its economy weighs little on final demand and global activity.Viewed differently, global growth amounted to 3.6% since 2000 and Japan is almost no contribution!
The succession of disasters threat does not resume?
The paradox is that the number of natural disasters is rising trend since the early 1950s, as they have been multiplied by 20 in fifty years, before breaking a bit since the early 2000s. At the same time, the average unit cost of natural disasters has remained stable, amounting to $ 240 million on average between 1950 and 2010. For the total cost of natural disasters (including the growing number), it has increased, but at a pace close to that of U.S. GDP (6% per year).In other words, the cost of disasters relative to GDP is stable world since 1900: the events are more frequent but the risks better managed and the impact remains low overall.
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Since 2007, the state is restructuring in all directions, under the spur of the general revision of public policies (RGPP). This is the recasting of the judicial system, which increased the number of jurisdictions between 1206 and 819, the establishment of bases Defense or the merger of Taxation and the Treasury, which will develop 750 wickets tax unique to individuals in late 2011. Wednesday, Baroin, the budget minister, will present a new Cabinet status report of this RGPP. The balance is positive. According to documents Bercy Le Figaro that was procured, 86% of the measures argue correctly. Only 4% are significantly behind.Among them, simplifying applications for rights for disabled or rationalization of the location property of the Department of Justice, which the wolves have triggered the ire of MPs.
Real savings on payroll
Above all, the Budget Ministry estimated 7 billion savings through RGPP from 2009 to 2011. To him, only the non-replacement of staff on two retiring has generated gross savings of 2.7 billion thanks to 100,000 job cuts from 2009 to 2011. Of these 2.7 billion, 1.4 billion were returned to staff as categorical measures. The return rate of 50% has been met by the Budget Ministry. The Court of Auditors is not of that opinion: for it, the annual savings do not exceed 100 million, due to the slippage of compensation granted to employees.Response Bercy: Court wrongly took into account the categorical measures taken before 2007 unsecured personal loans. The controversy will bounce!
Baroin also announce on Wednesday a series of new measures. Their philosophy: audit and management improvement. A review of resources allocated to the external action of the State is done, the policies of outsourcing and transfer those duties to the GSEs will be assessed. Audits of these bodies will continue, including that of the Paris Opera. Furthermore, internal audit will be strengthened in the ministries. Investments in real estate and IT will be a systematic expertise-cons.Finally, some expenditures will be scrutinized: the Ministry of Ecology will ensure that the cost of the tax credit for sustainable development (heat pump, insulation for the home) from slipping further.
The RGPP also aims to improve service to the French, by developing online services, reducing processing times (from 12.6 days in 2009 to 5 days for passports now). Baroin will present the second edition of barometer of the quality of public services. With an innovation: the degree of user satisfaction. Thus, while 77% of patients are cared for in less than four hours emergencies – rates stable against the barometer of June – only 49% of users are satisfied with their lap times to emergencies. It will take time for the French to realize improvements.
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"Tax reform: life insurance last contribution
The week starts expected to see a little clearer in the reform of the taxation of wealth. Thursday will hold a symposium at Bercy in which Baroin, the budget minister, and Christine Lagarde, Minister of Economy, reveal what options are open to reform.
We already know that the track, a time referred to, of taxing the gain on the sale of a principal residence will not see the day. February 10, TF1, Nicolas Sarkozy has said clearly. Moreover, the tax benefits accorded to regulated booklets (Booklet A, sustainability …) and regulated savings (savings plan housing, housing savings account …) should not be affected by the reform.
There remains the thorny case of life insurance. Some imagine that her income, taxed at only 7.5% after eight years of detention, are taxed more.This increase would apply only to contracts exceeding a certain amount in order to protect small savers. Another idea, less taxing contracts more heavily invested in equities (eg 5.5%) and more others (eg 8.5%). However, many within the majority and the government feel suicidal to touch the life insurance to fourteen months of the presidential election. Their plea for the status quo tax seems to hold the rope.
More fundamentally, by early May and the presentation of the reform in the Council of Ministers, the executive will decide on a simple layout of the ISF or her disappearance. The first option is to remove the first slice (the one from 800 000 to 1.3 million in assets), increase the rebate on the principal residence and to strengthen the ceiling of the ISF.Advantage: the removal of the tax shield – the only point gained from the reform – finance or less relief EWB. Conversely, the disappearance of the tax on capital means finding 3.2 billion euros of alternative resources. Supporters of this option believe it is possible to concentrate the necessary increase in taxation of unearned income (capital gains, dividends, interest) on the very wealthy households. For example by subjecting the scale of income tax (IR) products of capital in excess of 100,000 euros per year.
Franco-German convergence
Should we also create an additional tax on income (IR) to 45% for very wealthy households? Many MPs want. But Nicolas Sarkozy, who has the last word on reform, there is so far away. Germany has yet created a slice of IR at 45%.But the reform is supposed to be under the banner of fiscal convergence with our neighbor. The ECA will announce Friday its report on the subject. Only problem: it should conclude that the property taxes are not a key factor of competitiveness gap between the two countries. Taxes and social charges on companies play a far greater role. The report should advocate a reconciliation of the bases of corporate income tax (CIT). And noted that comparisons are difficult. An example: 80% of German companies are taxed at the IR, not the SI.
In reality, the site of the Franco-German tax convergence, and the big bang that it is post-presidential.
The approach of Christmas has meant a return to stability for the Paris financial market. The CAC 40 has almost regained the level Friday it had reached the end of 2009, surpassing the 3,900 points of accuracy. It is true that after months of tension, the French index shows a nice rebound by 8% since the beginning of the month. This makes December the most brilliant of the Paris Bourse for ten years.
Several reasons for this surge. Firstly, a lack of love for the bond market causing transfers of liquidity in equity markets, a phenomenon particularly noticed by the managers for two weeks. This is the first time that the phenomenon occurs since the beginning of the financial crisis in autumn 2008.
Rather favorable outlook also served markets. The company forecasts are positive and well-oriented macroeconomic indicators.Finally, the current undervaluation of the Paris stock attracts more and more foreign investors. This has led to the week before Christmas with a leap of ACC, at its highest level this month on Tuesday, followed by three days of quiet consolidation.
Ambiguous attitude of investors
The average values have led the market. The specialist video games Ubisoft has gained 9.8%, and the group of utilities Derichebourg 9 low fee payday loans.3%. While on the foreign exchange market, where volumes were very low, the euro was stable against the dollar Friday. Not surprisingly, most markets were sluggish last week.This has also enabled ads stringent rating agency, on Portugal and Hungary in particular, to go unnoticed …
By December 31, some U.S. indicators, highly anticipated, would instead take out the financial markets of their torpor. This could be the case for the index of consumer confidence for December, which will be unveiled tomorrow, or that of economic activity in the Chicago area over the same period, published Thursday. Statistics will be added real estate, housing prices and promises of home sales in November. In all cases, the year ending reflects an ambivalent attitude of investors, shared between firms rather satisfactory results and concerns about the strength of the euro area, notably with the debt crises in Greece and Ireland .It should confirm the ability of some values, especially in luxury, to hold their own in the game LVMH is up 64.3% year on year, and PPR of 43.9%. Opposite, the rout will fit certain heavy finance, Axa losing 22.9% over the year and Crédit Agricole, 19.6%.
The euro seemed to stabilize after the Irish record. Appeasement has indeed installed these days on the single currency, while the European sovereign debt crisis does not appear to invade Portugal in the short term. But on Wednesday, ratings agency Moody's placed the debt rating of Spain's long-term negative watch, that will see any lowering of its Aa1 rating.
Thus, the euro resumed the downward slope: towards half-past twelve on Wednesday, the exchange rate euro / dollar fold from 0.45% to 1.3319 dollars after a foray to below $ 1.33 earlier this morning. As for equity markets, European stock markets are affected by the announcement from Moody's, and instead of Madrid falls more than 2%, breaking the symbolic and psychological 10,000 points.
Belgium under supervision
Other disappointing news in Europe, this time concerning Belgium.The rating agency Standard and Poor's placed the country on Tuesday notes on negative watch, paving the way for a potential degradation "within six months" if a government is formed "soon".
"Concerns related to the peripheral countries should continue to weigh on the euro over the next three months, although the EU summit this week could provide some support," commented Sara Yates, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
Thursday and Friday, is held in effect an EU summit in which Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup President, does not talk about his idea of Euro-bonds, because "'to a systemic crisis, it requires a systemic response.The "no" Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to draft Eurobonds issued by the Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker and the Italian Giulio Tremonti yet seemed to have framed this summit no fax cash loans.
General strike in Greece
Meanwhile, in Greece, the general strike in full swing. The country is deprived of this Wednesday, air, sea and rail, and its activity is idling, as part of a general strike against the rigors of 24 hours and two labor market reforms and public companies voted in the night .
For the third consecutive day after initially stoppages in transport, Athens was engaged in massive traffic jams by work stoppages subways, buses and trams, and in anticipation of a demonstration in the center by late morning.
A global economy plagued
On Tuesday, the euro was able to take a little height Parès publication of the ZEW index of German investor confidence, the better. And Tuesday night, the Committee of the Fed has not changed his address: the Federal Reserve found that the economic recovery in the United States was still not enough to cause a sustained fall in unemployment, led to the conclusion that reaffirm its quantitative easing program. The Federal Reserve kept its key rate and confirmed its intention not to raise it for a long period.
Also note the recent rise in the Swiss franc against the dollar. The Swiss currency took a breather on Wednesday but was chained up for five sessions in a row before. Swiss franc recovers its role as a refuge for excellence in global economic turmoil.On Wednesday, the rate dollar / Swiss franc 0.9631 rating. The pattern was the same against the euro, even more pronounced.
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Heavily criticized for his handling of the debt crisis, Angela Merkel can at least count on the support of Nicolas Sarkozy, will host today at Freiburg on the occasion of the thirteenth Cabinet Franco-German. On Thursday, the Elysee said there was "no place" to discuss the issue of Eurobonds, "while the Euro has come to an agreement on a permanent mechanism for crisis . The Chancellor strongly opposed on Monday the creation of "Eurobonds" advocated by Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup, and Giulio Tremonti, Italian Minister of Finance in order to pool European debts. "Such obligations do not allow competition among interest rates," Critical Angela Merkel, who considers the principle of common obligation contrary to the European treaties.
Annoyed, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg held the refusal of Berlin "anti-European", immediately attracting the wrath of the Chancellery. "That does not Europe, if its members qualify each other of anti-Europeans", replied the voice of Angela Merkel. These passages of arms between euro zone leaders bodes ill for the European Council next week will be devoted to the debt crisis.
Position "tactical"
Cabinet francoallemand Day aims to resolve differences through a united Franco-German.Without being hostile, in essence, the creation of Euro-bonds, or increase the Fiscal Stabilization Fund, advocated by the IMF, Paris, Berlin household, whose agreement is necessary to enter into a treaty European mechanism of stability (MES) enabling the rescue of a state of the eurozone, even impose on the private sector "restructuring" of the debt.
"The attitude of France is mostly tactical, because it has an obvious interest in having these Eurobonds" says Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian prime minister, MEP and astute observer of the Franco-German.Germany believes it has no incentive to let the Eurobonds, but if the pressure on the euro continues, it can not avoid it. "
By pooling some of their debts, most states in the euro area, including "PIIGS"-Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, would benefit from higher interest rates and a financial incentive to comply the Stability Pact. But Germany, she is afraid to pay more for debt issued jointly with unscrupulous borrowers. "If the German bond rate is lower than in the Eurobond, it must be a mechanism for financial compensation for Germany," says Guy Verhofstadt.
In this debate, France was careful to make revolutionary proposals, likely to hit Germany. "The Elysee is dedicated primarily to influence the German position, which is already not bad," says a diplomat.In Germany, the positions are already moving. On Thursday, a key government economic advisers, Peter Bofinger, expressed support for Eurobonds.
lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – Growth at half-mast, high public deficits and high volatility in financial markets. What management "value" is an attractive option for investors?
Benedict Schouler – By taking away the values called "glamorous" that everyone talks about, the operator "value" (management of buying undervalued companies and neglected by the financial markets, Ed) resists market pressure. Investing in such companies and allows investors to avoid speculative bubbles. By construction, management "value" is the best managements in the long term. (*)
Mary Ballorain, director of development in France Sparinvest
After a month spent in the hospital, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, was in Paris on Tuesday to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the reunification of Germany, before an audience of students, politicians and businessmen French gathered for the occasion at the Sorbonne. Negotiator of the treaty of reunification in 1989, a pillar of the Christian Democrats, German Finance Minister Angela Merkel has mostly used his visit to Paris to discuss the highly topical, especially the debt crisis in the euro area.
Ardent advocate of financial orthodoxy, and strong supporter of strong medicine to cure the ills of Euroland, Wolfgang Schäuble has detailed his vision of the mechanism for resolving crises, decided last week by the European Council.The bloc have agreed on principles, but have left two months to reveal its details, which does not fail to worry the markets (see below).
Unsurprisingly, Wolfgang Schäuble defended a vision of strict European rescue mechanism. In addition to financial penalties, it is favorable to the deprivation of voting rights in the European Council for countries that do not meet the fiscal discipline imposed by their peers.The term "orderly bankruptcy" or "restructuring" is not pronounced, but it transpires between the lines.
"The rescheduling of debts of a disorderly country should be avoided," said the German minister, but the states that are experiencing financial difficulties can not be expected that the Community aid without conditions. "
After 2013, the European rescue will no longer be synonymous with full insurance, as is currently the case with the Fiscal Stabilization Fund low fee payday loans. "The private sector must be a central element of the mechanism," he assures.Holders of bonds receive a risk premium, but in case of crisis, they actually have to bear this risk, the household at the same time the taxpayer. "
Stop the Speculators
Leaves to increase the volatility of markets, which fear capital losses for holders of government bonds on the occasion of future bailouts, Wolfgang Schäuble launches: "Monetary union was never designed as a model Enrichment for financial speculators. This is not a system of distribution from rich to poorer countries as part of a union transfers. "The German version of the next amendment to the treaty is put. It is very clear.Attached to the clause "no bail out" (principle of non-bailout) that will go down in the Treaty, Berlin wants to add a mechanism for restructuring, which will not allow free private bond holders, including banks and insurance.
Wolfgang Schäuble has also benefited from his presence in Paris to defend the excellence of German economic model, based on exports and competitiveness, but criticized in France because it neglects the wages and consumption. "Germany has imposed structural reforms that have contributed to the competitiveness of the European Union," he said. A polite way of saying that Germany, with its renewed growth will not abandon his model, the displeasure of his neighbors.
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