LE FIGARO. – ArcelorMittal escapes shortly after the first loss in its history. Are you satisfied with this performance?
Lakshmi Mittal. – No, although, given the circumstances, we are very far out. We achieved all our objectives of lowering costs, reducing debt, adjusting our production, and have negotiated with the various unions in the world … while 2009 was one of the most difficult years for thirty years the capitalist world. The crisis is not over. The recovery will be slow and gradual. But we managed to overcome the crisis successfully.
Using your production capacity from 50% in late 2008, to 70%. Do you anticipate this year?
Our production planning is based on the request of our customers. In 2009, only 10 of its 25 blast furnaces were in production. Now, twenty are active.There remain four or five who are temporarily stopped and restarted when demand recovers. At the end of 2010, our plants should operate at 85% of their capacity. The automotive market is expected to improve slightly over fourth quarter 2009 in Europe and strong growth in emerging countries. We organize days of innovation with our major customers. We present our new products, our development programs. They are still waiting for better products, steel both stronger and lighter, and more services.
How do you make 5 billion cost-cutting announced in 2012?
This total includes 5 billion of the savings already achieved (2.7 billion Editor's note). We have implemented many measures to improve our productivity.ArcelorMittal is a great company so we can make a "benchmark" in the group! We have implemented a continuous improvement plan which aims to save $ 30 (or 20 euros) per tonne of steel produced. There were hundreds of initiatives in this area. In 2009, we managed to save 13 euros per tonne. We still have to win 7 euros. At group level, it will represent an additional saving of 1.4 billion euros. And we can still reduce our administrative costs and expenses. This will include a specialization of production sites that could be devoted to one type of product payday advance . That does not mean that we will close …
… Or that you will continue to reduce your workforce?
The group has 35 000 employees less in 2009 than in 2008.We have plans in place starting in early retirement, voluntary severance schemes … We have nothing planned as of this year. We have just completed what was started. There is no excess production capacity in Europe. In China, yes.
You also talked about the resumption of investment.
Yes. We will resume mining projects and investment in developing countries, including Brazil. We do not expect to make further acquisitions in the steel. The cost would be higher than the expansion of existing capacity. We focus on the latter solution.
The introduction of carbon tax is a threat to your business in France?
We will be less competitive in Europe. We are in discussion with the French Government, to explain the impact of this tax on our costs.I met President Nicolas Sarkozy a few weeks ago. He says he wants a strong industry in France. We'll have to find solutions. European policy in terms of CO2 is already a burden for the European steel industry, compared to our competitors in China or India. This clearly represents an additional cost, difficult to quantify but very real. Finally, the carbon tax would be inconsistent with a strong industry. But both will have to coexist.
Chinese production of steel which starts again on the rise is a threat to your industry?
Last year, net exports of Chinese steel amounted to 10 million tonnes. This year, they should not exceed 25 million tonnes. First, because the Chinese domestic demand has picked up.Then, because Chinese steel production depends on imports of raw materials, making it less competitive for export. Finally, China mainly exported to South-Eastern Asia. Nevertheless, we are always attentive. If China's exports, it can make European prices down, it already happened before 2008. There is always a risk.
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The case of the possible relocation of the future of Renault Clio in Turkey is still rising a notch. Nicolas Sarkozy has expressed Wednesday his irritation with his vows to parliamentarians at the Elysee, "We do not put so much money to support our manufacturers to ensure that all plants go outside." And this message the head of state has to pass directly to Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault, he will receive Saturday at the Elysee.
Wednesday Christian Estrosi, Minister of Industry, has shown the same firmness after a meeting with Patrick Pelata Bercy, the CEO of Renault. The Minister has shelled the long list of grants awarded since the beginning of 2009. Three billion loan was granted to Renault (all PSA).Flins received aid from 100 million euros for the production of Zoe, electric cars Renault (launch scheduled in 2012) and 150 million euros from the ISP for its project to produce batteries. In addition, there are 600 million euros bonus for breaking, which allowed the sale of 600 000 additional cars and the abolition of the tax.
"The government has enough evidence to say an industrial strategy," says the minister said that the state holds a 15% shareholding in Renault and two posts. It is also possible that the state seeks more seats on the board.But the number of directors is proportional to the percentage of equity held by an Act of October 30, 1935.
Wednesday, Patrick Pelata played the card of appeasement, saying that "no decision has yet been taken regarding the future production of Clio in 2013. Several scenarios are possible. The production will be maintained at Clio Flins, "as Zoe does not saturate the capacity of the site, which would be a fantastic scenario," said the skipper of the brand. However he also said that "production in France is good for vehicles with high added value. It is difficult in the low range. A shade as the government seems unwilling to consider.
A Clio for France
He asked three requirements to Renault, which has only a few days to find answers.Firstly, the group must incorporate as possible suppliers and subcontractors French to its industrial. More components must be manufactured in France.
Then, Christian Estrosi does not decrease production or declining enrollment in Flins, which currently produces 150 000 Clio. Finally, the Government intends to maintain the territory the production of Clio, regardless of the success of Zoe. Renault will have to determine what other sites the French Clio IV could be fabricated. No way to transfer the production in Bursa in Turkey, which are currently produced 180 000 Clio.Christian Estrosi does not want the share Flins parte in Bursa, but remains in France.
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The United Kingdom is concerned that a boomerang effect will weaken his come back. On January 1, VAT is in fact rise to 17.5%, having been exceptionally lowered to 15% for a year to boost consumption. Economists from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think again increase the VAT rate could be "stalling a recovery in its infancy."
The Center for Economic Research, which called in July 2008 a decrease of 5% tax, advance that have prolonged the VAT at 15% until July 2010. Joerg Radeke, economist at CEBR, said that the consumer will still need a boost in the first half. Inflation should indeed start rising, exceeding the 3%, which should lead to a decrease of 0.7% of household spending.In 2010, consumption would fall by 0.2%, according to economist.
The test balances
The effects of the rise in VAT rates could soon be visible through balances. If the high shopping season has started on the Bleeding Edge, economists fear it is only a deadweight, consumers rushing to the shelves before the tax goes back to 17.5 %. "They certainly have some early purchases in November and December," Analysis Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, senior economist at BNP Paribas.
The decline in consumption expected in early 2010 should still be written off by the pricing of retail giants such as Tesco. The largest British retail group has decided not to pass on the rising rate of VAT on certain non-food products.This should enable consumers to save another 12 million pounds (13.4 million euros), according to the distributor. The Sainsbury and Home Retail, among others, have also decided to sacrifice their margins.
Beneficial effects difficult to measure
In total, Jörg Radeke the CEBR believes that the rise in VAT rates, premature, and likely to "wipe out most of the benefits had been reduced fee. Still, it is difficult to estimate what were these "benefits" in 2009. According to the CEBR, reduced VAT rates contributed 0.5% to growth of British GDP.
The effect has not been miraculous. While passing the reduced rate, in the first quarter of 2009, "Private consumption fell 1.5% from fourth quarter of 2008, after a similar decline over the previous period," said Caroline Newhouse-Cohen.A decrease which stabilized until July. But economists agree that even if the measure has cost 4.3 billion pounds (4.8 billion euros) to the Treasury, the economic situation would have been worse without it.
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The financial crisis has undoubtedly reduced the weight of the United States and Europe to Asia. Suddenly, the latter will take the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the world.
From this Friday until Sunday evening, leaders of ten ASEAN countries (Association of the South-Eastern Asia) met in Thailand. They are joined this morning by China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia. Countries whose recovery from crisis is much faster than in the West and for many of them are already preparing to abandon their recovery plans.
All concerned now the weak dollar, which they provide relief whenever necessary.And none of them has any interest in seeing the U.S. financial system to deteriorate, while exports remain the primary engine of growth.
"Stress tests" for Chinese banks
But the crisis was already moving lines. The model was that the United States absorb massive exports to Asia is in the process of shifting. In China and India, consumption explodes and is progressively taking over from the American buyer. ASEAN and its 600 million consumers will take over.
However, to enjoy the recovery, Asia should not repeat the mistakes of the Americans. Beijing has understood that today called for Chinese banks to conduct stress tests, stress tests each quarter to better manage credit and liquidity supply in the country.
It must also strengthen its cohesion.If in ten years exports of ASEAN have been multiplied by three, 1 700 billion, and its trade with China by ten, the regional bloc to just build a true economic community. Theoretically scheduled for 2015, it would then be extended to China, South Korea and Japan.
A dream which currently faces the political weakness of ASEAN. Nobody can believe the Committee on Human Rights that it has put in place, while Burma is a dictatorship where every opponent is going to jail and that Laos and Vietnam are two blocks Communists closed.
But Asia is a force. She has already lived through the 1998 crisis and emerged stronger than before.
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
"Tokyo is seeking a new motor recovery
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