Traditionally, the post of IMF Managing Director is awarded every five years to a European. Except that this time, the so-called "emerging", such as China or Brazil, hoping to appear in the landscape of global governance.
If emerging markets do not seem to agree on the way to propose a single candidate set, Europe, she intends to show its unity to maintain this position against the Americans, who they feel are the president of the World Bank. Especially since the situation of public finances in European countries, including South shudder markets for over a year. The Greeks, but also the Irish and Portuguese need a Fund that helps them, as was the case with Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Overview of possible candidates for the general direction of the International Monetary Fund, replacing Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
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"Today, we can not take action without evaluating and communicating the results to the French. Otherwise they feel cheated, "said Liberal MP Claude Gloasguen. Photo credits: Jean-Christophe Marmara / Le Figaro
Friday morning presentation of the broad guidelines of the economic program of FN required three hours of explanation. Declined by Francis, an "economist in a private financial institution" who did not want his identity, this project is at odds with "one of the WSPU who repeats the same stale receipts, what does not and Yet that attention be given to apply for 30 years, "Marine Le Pen hammered.
The base of the FN program revolves around the gradual exit of the euro. "France is the 5th world power, it has the means to manage its own currency as it has done for 600 years," François considered. If Marine Le Pen was elected in 2012, it will give six months to persuade other countries to abandon the euro zone single currency. "If they do not, we will go out alone," warned the president of the FN.In case of attack against the franc (reintroduced to parity 1 franc = 1 Euro), the government will leave "float" or will "exchange control temporarily. As for the risk of inflation due to devaluation "necessary", it is not proven by the FN.
The party of Marine Le Pen proposes to restore the "border protection" to fight against unfair competition that we deliver the low cost countries. This patriotism newlook rely on import quotas, tariffs or health standards on certain products.
"To ensure the recovery of the middle class and SMBs," his two priorities, the FN suggests reindustrialise France in investing in certain sectors and certain renationalizing strategic sectors (energy, transport …). Marine Le Pen also promises to rebuild a large public banking division."We will wait until fall for the banks to redeem them," admitted publicly any of his relatives, who requested anonymity.
In fiscal matters, the FN promises a "revolution for social justice": the merger of income tax with the CSG, simplifying the corporate tax, eliminating tax loopholes … "We want to go to 5 taxes instead of 1000 today, "said Marine Le Pen. On the expenditure side, the FN wants to reduce bureaucracy and cut in social benefits. "You have to book some social protection, including the French," she said, promising also the "national preference" in employment. "If a stranger does not find work, he did not intend to stay in the country," she conceded.
The FN will also remove the 35 hours but not repeal the tax exemption of overtime.It will end in "1 of 2" in the state civil service and reserve one third of public recruitment for over 45 years. It will allow learning from 14 years and establish a retirement card from "40 years, full".
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Portugal always pays more dearly for his obstinacy in refusing the help offered her the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. On Wednesday, the country has issued 1.005 billion euros of treasury bills (short term) to investors, who demanded interest rates high. One for the issuance of 455 million euros in 12 months stood at 5.902%, 1.5 points higher than during the previous operation. 550 million in vouchers to 6 months were issued against a rate of 5.117%, well above the 2.984% of the last similar exercise in early March.
Still, the government said for the first time since the crisis began, he was "able to ensure its financial commitments." Resigned, the Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates steadfastly refuses to resort to the European financial stability and the International Monetary Fund.And despite a high public deficit and growth conspicuously absent.
Borrow short term
In response, the rating agencies have deteriorated in recent days the debt rating of the country. Fitch and Standard & Poor's have now placed one notch from relegation in the category of "junk" that is to say, very risky. Markets are concerned that Lisbon can not repay large debt maturities in April (€ 4.2 billion) and June (4.9 billion).
To pass these tests without the need for European aid plan and while minimizing the invoice, Lisbon could be tempted to borrow in the short term (due within two years) payday loans with no fax."The Portuguese Treasury has recently presented its program of debt issuance for the second half: he confirmed that he wanted to sell 7 billion euros of bonds, short term, but has not announced anything on the bonds (maturity greater than two years, Ed), "said Cyril Regnat, strategist at Natixis.
Allies Lusophone
Portugal can count on allies to buy its bonds. Brazil has said it would support early April its former colonizer in turmoil. Macao, a former Portuguese property, said March 30 that it buys debt Portuguese (but its means are limited.)Gilles Moec, economist at Deutsche Bank, for its part suspected Portuguese banks under direct or indirect control of the state to be a strong incentive to buy down the national debt.
According to the Economist, the Portuguese authorities might be able to avoid resorting to the aid plan before new parliamentary elections scheduled for June 5. But, he warns, "after that date, Portugal should have much more in its coffers." Perhaps the country he has no time to wait that long. Thursday and Friday, the European Council of Ministers of Finance should, according to Reuters, consider the options "economic and legal" yet on this issue. The opportunity, once again, pushing Lisbon to accept the outstretched hand.
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The French are increasingly likely to be seduced by the bank online. They are now more than two million have opened an account at one of these virtual branches. Representing 2% of the market for retail banking. The movement gained momentum in 2010. In Boursorama, one of the first in this market, but will announce the results in sharp decline due to problems at its German subsidiary, "the number of bank customers doubled in 2010 compared to 2009," says his President, Ines Mercereau. For its part, ING Direct has acquired his additional 40,000 customers in 2010 and Monabanq, about 20 000. Launched in October 2009, the private bank BforBank claims 52,000 customers.
Discount Rates
This trend could accelerate in the future. These banks, which are major communication efforts should take advantage of underlying trends that include e-commerce.Suddenly, the offensive commercial business practices, including the insurers. Axa Bank, for example, has recast its offer with a goal of doubling the number of customers by 2015, rising from 720,000 to 1,400,000. Macif wants it, retain its 5 million members by offering them a unique banking offer short term personal loans.
Initially specializing in stock brokerage or savings at competitive prices, most players have grown in recent years by offering their customers the same products that a traditional bank: current account, credit card, life insurance , mutual funds and even more recently, as in mortgages Boursorama. Their most? Very low rates (often the card is free) and sites within easy reach and use. The traditional retail banks have also set up agencies online, but with rates close to those prevailing at the counter."LCL e.LCL with one of the few to have a different pricing policy," says Stephen Short, CEO of Equinox Consulting.
Who are online banks? "They are the secondary banks rather affluent customers, typically savvy banking and technophiles. They seek payment or free of financial products better, "forward Maxime Chipoy analyst UFC-Que Choisir. For now, online banks are not designed to be the major banks to their customers. "Our goal is to be the first of the second bank of our customers," says Inès Mercereau.
CGT denies early departure of Bernard Thibault, announced Thursday morning by Le Parisien – Aujourd'hui en France. The newspaper believed that "tired", the CGT leader since 1999 has decided to leave the ship. "I'm leaving at the end of the year, so that my successor is in place before the presidential elections," reported Thursday morning in the daily framework of the CGT, remarks which were held on December 21 and 22 last to his closest collaborators. Allegations that the secretary general of the CGT was "very clear denial" on Thursday, denouncing "an attempt at destabilization."
"For the future of the CGT and its leadership, we will proceed when the time comes – and it's not yet the case – according to our usual procedures in a collective framework," to elect a successor at he said in a statement.
The assumption of an imminent departure of Bernard Thibault of the CGT leadership is often mentioned yet. Since his re-election to Congress in Nantes comfortable, difficulties have indeed accumulated to the charismatic leader. The failure of the struggle against the pension reform first, opened the way for a reconsideration of the reformist strategy adopted under his leadership over the past ten years. Some federations have seen the failure of a desire to refocus the CGT and make a union of contestation and negotiation instant credit report. The recent decline in the weight of the union in some of its strongholds, such as RATP, EDF, GDF or the Post Office, has been interpreted by opponents as a validation of this hypothesis. By boycotting the beginning of January the wishes of the social partners Nicolas Sarkozy, Bernard Thibault would have liked to correct the situation by hardening his speech.
A three-year term
But other factors may also contribute to an early departure next leader of the CGT. Internally, Bernard Thibault is accused of abandoning the organization. A peak for the CGT: the staff, who complain the level of wages and working conditions, is in open war against management. "Every unhappy tumble in his office. This is evidence of dysfunction of the house, "said one observer Parisien-Aujourd'hui en France. Bernard Thibault, meanwhile, evokes "a fatasme" to destabilize the CGT "after the exceptional action over pensions.
To these difficulties must be added the threats against himself and his family have suffered in recent years. The pig's head stabbed in front of his door and other malicious acts would eventually affect the CGT leader, worried about his family.Many reasons for Bernard Thibault, give way before the end of his mandate in 2012.
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The noose tightens on conventional breaks, these "friendly separation" between employer and employee who are very successful (455,000 have been registered since August 2008) and now represent 11% of the grounds of breach of CDI. Christian Charpy, head of employment center, announced Wednesday, during a meeting with the Association of Journalists of social information-a unique figure which confirms that this new provision of the Labour Code would provide early retirement scheme for certain large companies.
According to Christian Charpy, a job seeker five entering employment center after a break treaty has over 50 years. This is double their other reasons for listing. But the fifties unemployed are eligible for compensation for three years if they have paid 36 months.And if they are over 58 years, "they can be compensated until age of retirement," admits the Ministry of Labour. "Employees found there, because they have a guaranteed income until retirement," abounds Isabelle Mathieu, a partner in employment law at Daempartners. To say that employers are using conventional breaks to separate "cheap and cost of unemployment insurance" of their seniors, there is only one step that the OECD has passed in April last.
The diversion of this device invented by unions and employers to frame-outs which took the form of dismissal for misconduct-concern mainly large firms. Including more than 250 employees, where 17.4% separation amicably affecting more than 58 years. Or 13 points higher than in less than 50 people.Unemployment insurance note well "over-representation of 55-60 years, but has no" evidence to draw the conclusion of a drift "detrimental to its finances, largely in deficit (11 billion at end 2011). His office has commissioned a study to take stock. Results in the first half.
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Copper ends 2010 with fanfare
Copper has illuminated the LME for the last week of 2010. Despite the holiday-shortened session, the red metal has distinguished himself by beating his own records. Friday, he hit the 9,675 dollars per tonne, a record level. Its price has more than tripled in two years. He ended the year on an increase of over 30%. In a market where stocks are still considered insufficient, the growth of emerging economies, India and China in particular, focused on the rise.
Tin was also distinguished by an increase to 26,800 dollars per tonne and an annual increase of nearly 60%. The other metals are no exception as evidenced by increases of 31% over the year for nickel, 10% for aluminum and 5% for lead.
Used in industry, base metals have largely benefited from the recovery prospects for global growth in 2011, but also the weakening dollar. Moreover, the idea of seeing the birth of ETFs on the market, like precious metals, has generated much interest markets.
Oil makes up barely to the end of the year
The last week of 2010 has been turned upside for oil prices. Monday was first marked the end of a series of 5 consecutive sessions of gains, at a time when only the NYSE was open (one in London remained closed for the holidays). At $ 91, the course has remained on a higher in two years, but the atmosphere was gone. "The market drops a little ground. There are concerns about China's growth, "then thought Jason Schenker, Luxury Economics.
Thursday was the turning point of the week with the publication considered disappointing in crude inventories in the United States. The crude reserves fell 1.3 million barrels in the U.S., far less than anticipated by analysts (-2.9 million barrels). In addition, stocks of distillates rose despite the cold. These stories have been enough to push investors to take profits. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude for February delivery finished at 89.84 dollars on that day, down 1.28 dollars compared to the previous day. In London, Brent crude ended at 92.67 dollars.
Anxious to end the year on the positive, investors were caught on Friday. In New York, oil prices rebounded late in the session, reaching in the final minutes of trade, 92.06 dollars, a breakthrough price since October 2008. In 2010, he was up 15%.In London, Brent crude ended at 94.59 dollars (+22%).
The gold star of 2010
The year also ended with a flourish for precious metals. Gold, who won more than $ 40 in five sessions, ended 2010 to 1420.70 dollars an ounce, not far from its record high (U.S. $ 1,431.25 hit on December 7). As always this year, gold has benefited from its status as a safe haven in a market somewhat reassured by the problems of European debts no fax payday loans. Last week again Italy has sealed off a bond issue at very high rates while rates are still Greek soared. The weak dollar has also encouraged purchases of gold. Some profit taking at the weekend prevented the yellow metal to enter a new record. But according to analysts, the rise should continue in 2011.
As always, the money followed the gold.The gray metal ended higher at 30.63 dollars per ounce on Friday, registering a record high during trading in 30 years to 30.90 dollars. Over the year, he won over 80%.
For its part, an ounce of platinum ended at 1761.50 dollars an ounce Friday and palladium closed at 795.50 dollars. The two signed a very good year in 2010, with respective gains of 17% and 91.41% year on year. In addition to the industrial outlook optimistic, the markets were driven by fears of tight supplies of Russia, world's largest producer.
Cocoa takes a deep breath
Markets of agricultural materials, time was rather cautious. Cocoa prices in particular, have stabilized, although no conclusion has been found in the political crisis in Cote d'Ivoire, the largest producer worldwide.Prices have increased by "only" 12% since the beginning of political tensions since the beans were still able to reach ports and leave the territory. Moreover, other producing countries such as Ghana and Indonesia, are driving the market. On Liffe in London, a tonne of cocoa for March delivery ended down slightly to 2017 pounds on Friday. On the NYBOT-ICE U.S., the contract for March delivery was worth 3,023 dollars per tonne.
For his part, sugar is still flamed last week. Prices are mounted Wednesday until 34.77 cents a pound in New York, a new record since January 1981 due to fears over supply. But prices fell sharply Thursday and Friday, weighed down by a movement of profit taking.
From their side, prices for corn and soybeans have reached their highest levels since August 2008 in Chicago.Dry weather in Argentina, the second largest exporter of corn, fearing the worst for crops. A bushel of soybeans for March delivery finished Friday at 14.03 dollars, rising by 3.2% over the last week of the year. The contract for the same maturity of corn rose to 6.29 dollars (+2.4%) while a bushel of wheat stood at 7.9450 dollars (+1.5%). Note that wheat, boosted drought in Russia during the summer, has gained 45% over the year.
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France remains the largest AAA. This note, the best is always what the rating agency S & P (Standard & Poor's) – one of three major awards at the world-France.And what is triple A party to last at least a few months since S & P's note accompanying a stable outlook.
This assessment "reflects our views on health and strength of the French economy, the political environment, which we estimate to be flat and oriented towards prudent economic policies," says Marko Mrsnik, an analyst for S & P cited in the statement.
S & P increases the scenario in which the French government will continue its effort of fiscal consolidation and "could reduce the deficit to about 3% of gross domestic product in 2013."
France has promised to reduce its budget deficits (government, social security, local) of 7.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, a record at 6% next year.Paris is a deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2012 and 3%, the maximum allowed under the European treaties, in 2013.
Debt in a few dates and figures
The debt of France amounted to 1591.5 billion at the end of second quarter 2010 (latest figure available), or 82.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). It is expected to exceed 1,600 billion at end 2010 to 83.2% of GDP, or about 25,000 euros per capita.
It increased by almost 60% since 2003, during which she had crossed the symbolic threshold of 1,000 billion euros and the 50% of national wealth. The mark was surpassed 500 billion in 1993. Ultimately, the burden of debt to GDP has tripled in 30 years.
The Department of Budget expects that the French debt will represent 86.2% of GDP in 2011 before reaching 87.4% in 2012 and to decline slightly.Government debt is owned 70% by non-resident investors, a figure rising steadily in recent years.
A closed
In the "club" very closed countries rated triple-A by all three agencies (S & P, Fitch Ratings and Moody's) include, in addition to France: Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Austria and Luxembourg in the euro area; Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland and United Kingdom in the rest of Europe, USA, Canada and Singapore around the world.
S & P, "an issuer of bonds rated AAA has extremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments." Moody's, the Supreme Aaa rating thus reflects a "strong economic, financial and institutional exceptional, allowing unfettered access to credit" and requires that "no conceivable impact is likely to affect repayment capacity."Fitch, meanwhile, explains that "the political will and capacity to mobilize resources to meet their financial obligations is a key element of sovereign credit reliability.
The rating agency Dagong Chinese, meanwhile, has awarded its own "Triple A" only seven countries: Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand. It notes the AA-France, the United States and Germany AA AA +.
With agencies
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Poweo will sell to Verbund, its shareholder, all of its means of electricity generation in order to identify the financial resources necessary for continuity of operations. Verbund, which owns nearly 46% stake in Poweo, has offered to buy for $ 120 million, corresponding to their net book value, 60% of production Poweo it does not already own, said in a statement the alternative operator of electricity and gas in France. The agreement announced Wednesday takes effect from 1 January 2011.
Poweo Production is all electricity generation assets of the group, whether fired combined cycle natural gas (NGCC), in operation or under construction, or asset-based energy renewable.
"Poweo believes that this transaction will allow it to generate adequate cash resources in light of its financial commitments for the full year 2011 has minimum", said the French group, saying he would continue the activity commercialization of energy.
In exchange, the transaction is welcomed. At 10 hours, the title Poweo gained 5.93% to 5.36 euros, with a market capitalization of 87.78 million euros. Since the beginning of the year, it nevertheless shows a decline of 61.4%.
Poweo announced in November that it was studying various strategic options to restore cash generation from operations, affected by its loss of electricity sales, pending the implementation of market reform of Electricity supposed to give him access to nuclear EDF on favorable terms.
The consolidation will be studied
He indicated Wednesday he wants "to continue intensive discussions already underway to identify and implement any accompanying measures to perpetuate further its presence in the French market as a marketer of energy faxless payday advance."
The company expects including regulations implementing the law on the reorganization of the French electricity market (Nome), which should be published in the first half of 2011 to determine "the contours of its new business model and its competitive positioning and prospects associated.
"It will consider any opportunity in this part of industry consolidation that could help accelerate the recovery of its activities."
The group also said it will receive until June 30, 2013 an option to repurchase its 60% stake in Poweo Production at a price identical to that assignment, he could exercise "if future developments regulatory conditions or market give meaning to such an operation. "
Poweo Production has also entrusted to a bank a mandate of the sale of its entire branch Renewable Energy, which includes an installed production capacity of 105 MW (megawatts).
Poweo developing since 2005 a project portfolio of generation capacity consisting mainly of type CCGT power stations, including one of 412 MW already in service in Pont-sur-Sambre (Nord).It does not, however, means to compete with EDF and depends primarily on the incumbent to supply electricity. On the wholesale market, the group must sell more expensive and the electricity it produced or purchased from the utility public.
Nome law does not specify the price at which EDF will sell part of its nuclear production. The incumbent requires a floor price of 42 euros per megawatt hour, while its competitors require a much lower price, close to 35 euros.
(With Reuters)
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