The Paris Bourse could put a brake on the increase Friday. The CAC 40, which had ended on a sharp rise yesterday, could suffer from poor market sentiment in Asia this morning, themselves unconvinced by the mixed session on Wall Street.
The Greek case should again focus attention of the operators. Friday in Paris, Nicolas Sarkozy meets Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou to 17 hours to take stock of the crisis in the country. "After meeting with Mr. Papandreou, have the opportunity to say exactly what is our strategy regarding the support that we need a European country like Greece," said the head of the French government yesterday during a trip to Morocco.
The meeting came a day after the German parliament ahead of the rescue plan of the euro. Despite this vote, caution remains the watchword.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said wait for the results of the audit conducted by the troika of the country's creditors to determine whether or not to renegotiate the terms of the second international aid plan decided on July 21 in Brussels by the euro area . Troika has also resumed in Athens yesterday.
Busy schedule
In terms of macroeconomic announcements, the end of third quarter results in a responsible news for investors. In France, prices are expected in the production and consumption in August. Retail sales in Germany in August and the index of consumer prices in September are waiting for you. In the eurozone, the unemployment rate last month will be announced free business cards.
In the U.S., the ball will start with the incomes and spending. It will continue with the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment index.
Mixed statistics were also published in China and Japan this morning.
As for currencies, the euro is still lagging behind against the dollar. The single currency is worth 1.3553 dollars in trade mantinaux. Side oil, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November gained 53 cents to 82.67 dollars in early electronic trading. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery took 28 cents to 104.23 dollars.
Values to follow
• Axa
The Strategic Investment Fund said Thursday he would not consider an acquisition of Axa Private Equity, the private equity subsidiary of the French insurer has to sell. The Financial Times and the Tribune believe that the offers for Axa Privaty Equity, private equity branch of Axa, must be filed by early next week.
• France Telecom
Orange should have exclusivity on the sale of new phone Sharp Aquos smartphone Android Phone SH80F compatible 3D. It should be available from October 6 at Orange from 199 euros with a subscription, according to specialized sites.
• Soitec
In a statement Friday, the group confirms that the sequential growth of wafer sales in the first half of 2011-2012 compared to the second half of last year will be in line with its forecast of 20% at constant exchange rates.
Gold has not used its safe haven status
Everything came together last week to blow away the gold: a warning from the Fed on the U.S. economy, disappointing indicators in Europe and China and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. And yet, the yellow metal has not taken advantage of the panic in equity markets, stopped in its tracks by pushing the dollar that followed the speech by the Fed. For it is the greenback, this time, which used its safe haven status: he flew Thursday to its highest level in eight months against the euro. But the inflation of the dollar makes it less attractive purchases of dollar-denominated metals, like gold.This increase also decreases the value of gold, pushing the funds and investors looking for liquidity, to abandon their positions on the yellow metal to cover losses in other markets.
Thursday, these two factors have reduced the metal king of 90 dollars. Friday, it sank below the threshold of 1,700 dollars per ounce at meetings, in 1666 dollars, its lowest level since early August. On the London Bullion Market, he finished in 1689 dollars at auction in the evening. Since its record high 1,921.15 dollars in September 6th, he gave up more than 10% of its value. But observers remain confident in the ability of gold to rebound.In addition to strong Asian demand, low interest rates charged by the Fed would still enjoy it, because gold is a good safeguard against inflationary pressures that may arise.
In the wake of gold, precious metals industrial markets have collapsed. The money collapsed by 17% over the week to its lowest level since May He finished Friday at 32.90 dollars per ounce. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, an ounce of platinum finished the week in 1651 dollars, a drop of 8%, while an ounce of palladium finished at 659 dollars, down nearly 10%.
Dollar and oil pessimism saddled
Oil markets, there was also a before and an after Fed. Earlier this week, before knowing the content of the speech of the U.S. central bank, investors showed just cautious.The debt crisis in Europe and global growth forecasts revised downwards by the IMF in any case not an incitement to rise. Tuesday, in a burst of hope, buoyed by the certainty that the Fed launched a new massive operation to support the U.S. economy, growth has occurred, taking a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery at 86.89 dollars and Brent at 110.33 dollars.
Wednesday started the fall has been rapid. The operation twist the Fed was anticipated and the device does not return any new liquidity in the markets. Hence the skepticism about its effectiveness. Moreover, "the press has depressed the market, noting the significant risks facing the economy," noted analysts at Commerzbank. The rise of the dollar has not helped the situation.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 80.51 dollars Thursday (-6.3%). Prices fell, the worst of the meeting at 79.66 dollars, its lowest level for over a month. Brent, meanwhile, returned that day at 105.34 dollars. "The combination of concerns about economic growth, oil demand and a stronger dollar helped lower prices," Adam Sieminski noted, Deutsche Bank.
Friday, as markets returned to green, oil prices continued to tumble, unable to bounce back after the collapse of the previous day.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 79.85 dollars (-10% for the week), while Brent closed at 104 personal loans for bad credit.25 dollars (-5 %).
Copper drops below $ 8,000
Also in the category of risky assets, investors have fled the base metals. They have been hit hard by the pessimism of the U.S. central bank. In addition, there were ominous indicators of activity in France and Germany. Most strikingly, China, world's largest consumer of base metals, annoncéun a decline in manufacturing activity in September, its lowest level in two months.
All these new, been grafted to the debt crisis in the euro zone, came after the announcement by the IMF revised downward its growth forecasts for the U.S. and the euro area.In this context, investors fear more than ever a return to recession in developed economies and a general decline in demand.
The gloom that has pervaded the London Metal Exchange (LME) was illustrated by the fall of the copper on Thursday and Friday, when stock markets posted heavy losses. The red metal, the market barometer, fell at the meeting under the 8000 points to 7788 dollars, a level not seen since September 28, 2010. Since its historic peak in February (to 10,190 dollars per tonne), the price of copper dropped nearly 30%. Nickel has lost up to 18% of its value in two days, tin over 22%. Aluminium, with a loss of 6% is almost the resistance.
According to observers, this general distrust of investors, fueled by the soaring dollar, however, is exaggerated in terms of market fundamentals, at least for copper.The latter has a higher Chinese imports by 21% in August, its highest since January, as well as tight supply due to a massive strike in a major mine in Indonesia.
The sugar melts
Soft commodities were also shaken last week. Per tonne of white sugar in London has fallen by over 13% in one week, losing nearly a quarter of its value in one month, while in New York, raw sugar prices have plummeted more than 15% in five days. In addition to concerns about global growth, has suffered from the sugar harvest prospects soaring in India and Europe, including Russia and the European Union. China has also marketed 200,000 tons from its stock state.
For its part, cocoa continued to fall Thursday in London to reach its lowest level since August 2009, to 1745 pounds per ton.Brown bean was already suffering from the announcement of record crops in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, the two largest exporters worldwide. On the NYBOT, ICE U.S., the contract for December delivery lost 5.5% on Friday week in 2624 dollars, while on the Liffe in London, a tonne of cocoa for December delivery, dropping 2.3% to 1734 lbs.
Coffee prices have also increased their decline, the price of arabica listed in New York yielding over 10% in the week at 234.85 cents. Even bearish for wheat, corn and soybean crops and penalized by the stronger than expected yields in the northern Midwest, United States. The courses also suffered from a shift in Chinese demand for soybeans to Latin America because of rising dollar and competition from countries of Eastern Europe for wheat, shown by the loss of the call supply of Egypt, won by Russia.This lower demand has relieved the stocks were under pressure and stepped down on the Chicago Board of Trade. Bushel of corn (about 25 kg) for December delivery was worth 6.4925 dollars Friday, a bushel of wheat and $ 6.43 soybean contract 12.69 dollars.
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It's a real bolt from the French audiovisual landscape. Wednesday morning the competition authority has simply removed the authority granted to Canal + in 2006 to buy its rival TPS. Result, Canal + and its parent Vivendi will re-notify their proposed acquisition of TPS before the competition authority in a one-month periods. In addition, the authority sanctioning Canal + up to 30 million euros.
The reason for this? The Competition Authority considers that Canal + has not complied with several of the 59 commitments made during this operation.These commitments were supposed to ensure that the encrypted string abuses its dominant position in pay TV.
Among the reasons for this heavy penalty, the Competition Authority Canal + accuses of not having available to third party distributors (telecom operators and their channel packages on ADSL) in a timely manner the seven channels mentioned in the commitments. Worse, the Canal + group would deliberately degraded the quality of TPS Star, the only pay channel capable of competing with its own channel Canal +. Finally, the group led by Bertrand Meheut failed to comply with certain commitments regarding relationships with independent channels business cards.Clearly, it takes advantage of its dominant position to impose commercial conditions "opaque and potentially discriminatory"
Gendarme Competition
All of these unfulfilled commitments had been badly negotiated in 2006, on the redemption of GST. Telecom operators, Orange had in mind battled against Canal +. The competition authority had imposed severe conditions, but Canal +, no one has apparently ignored it.
With this decision, the Competition Authority comes on strong. She returns to the operation which allowed Canal + to eliminate competition in the market for pay television. Above all, the competition watchdog the fact at a time when Canal + ready to leverage its position in pay television to attack the free TV market with the acquisition of Direct 8 Direct and Star.
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The news gave a boost to Wall Street as the U.S. central bank (Fed), the economy across the Atlantic continues to grow. "Economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, although there is an activity in some regions hesitant or waning," the Fed said in its situation report published every six weeks on the basis information gathered by the regional branches of the U.S. central bank.
The recovery, however, has been no acceleration in recent weeks and has even slowed in some areas, according to the U.S. central bank. Growth was moderate or mild in five districts, while seven others have described the activity with words like "very low" and "slower". In the last Fed Beige Book, released in late July, eight regions believed that growth had slowed.This does not rule out further the risk of recession in the United States.
Anyway, the news boosted the U.S. stock markets on the eve of the speech of U.S. President, Barack Obama, who is expected to announce a 300 billion plan to boost employment in the United States. So much so that Wall Street has increased its earnings by mid-evening: The Dow Jones climbed 2.09% to 11,372.44 points, the Nasdaq was up 2.67% to 2539.88 points and the Standard and Poor's rose from 2 , 54% to 1194.88 points.
In Berlin
Leading economic powers of the continent, Germany continues to print a rapid pace in the consolidation of public accounts. The Federal Ministry of Finance has fixed Monday downward its forecast deficit for fiscal 2011, reducing it to 1.5% of GDP, against 2.5% so far.
With seven consecutive months of increases, tax revenues fueled by favorable economic conditions help to clear the accounts. Despite the crisis of the euro and the slowdown brutal (0.1%) of growth in the second quarter, Germany displays unique performance in Europe. It is even "a balanced budget in 2014," according to the monthly report of the Ministry of Finance.
As good news never comes alone, the Bundesbank has maintained its growth forecast for the year, around 3%, despite the uncertainties on the global economy.Uncertainties also swept by the Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who sees "no signs of recession on the horizon" and "no cause for concern," despite the decline in exports and domestic consumption, traditional 'heel Achilles of the economy across the Rhine. With these results, which provide water to his mill, Germany does not want to break the pattern that ensures its development. With even greater risk of stuck behind its partners in the crisis and strengthen the idea of a Euro at two speeds. The Eurobonds are still seen in Berlin as a bad idea. Such obligations could put a strain on public accounts and stopping growth. Estimates vary, but the most pessimistic estimate that the pooling of risk could cost 25 billion per year budget.Half the projected deficit for this year.
Meet Baroin
In its traditional large back-up interview on public television, Chancellor Merkel called Eurobonds "wrong answer to the crisis." And showed its determination in the battle with speculators, "The markets want to force us to do things that we do not want to. Policies can not and should not run behind the markets. "The only Conservative leader weight to leave the door open to this option is Wolfgang Schäuble. However, it is satisfied that it is necessary first to establish a common budgetary and fiscal policy. He will discuss this and a tax on financial transactions at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday morning in Paris with his French counterpart, Francois Baroin.The two men were responsible for making joint Franco-German proposals on these two subjects in the fall.
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Christine Lagarde keeps its promises and thus confirms the rise of China on the international economic and international. The new executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has appointed a Chinese Zhu Min, the Director-General, a third managing director created for the occasion. It will work well alongside a Japanese and an American. The Chinese were far special adviser to Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
At age 58, Min Zhu has a strong resume: he went through the World Bank, the Central Bank of China and Bank of China business establishment. He "brings a wealth of experience in administration, politics and international financial markets, but also strong leadership skills and communication, and an understanding of institutional funds, Christine Lagarde said in a statement.In his capacity as Executive Vice President, he will play a decisive role in our work, in collaboration with other members of my team and myself. "
Elected by the unit of European leaders and the agreement of the United States, Christine Lagarde has focused during his campaign for the highest office of the IMF to receive the support of emerging countries. The latter, in much better shape economically developed countries, intend to carry more weight in the decisions of the IMF, busy to participate in rescue of Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
An Obama adviser appointed
To secure the support of China (3.82% of votes in the IMF), the former French Minister of Economy visits in Beijing, hinted that it could appoint a Chinese by his side.At its inaugural press conference, she said she would continue the policy of his predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn by giving more weight to emerging within the Fund.
Christine Lagarde has not forgotten the former shareholders of the Fund, namely the United States, which were the key to his appointment. She announced that David Lipton, an economic adviser to the White House, take over from his compatriot John Lipsky as Director General."Combining international expertise, experience in public policy and private sector and a strong track record in managing economic crises, David brings to the Fund's long experience in the design of policies and negotiating skills," said Christine Lagarde said.
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The European Central Bank has pointed out as planned today its main interest rate from 1.25% to 1.5%, at meeting of its governing council in Frankfurt. The financial markets were convinced that since Jean-Claude Trichet, its president, expressed his "great vigilance", vis-à-vis inflation, June 30, before the European Parliament. It reached 2.7% year over year, according to Eurostat.
This will be the second time this year that the ECB interest rates rises and the eleventh increase since Jean-Claude Trichet took charge of the institution in 2003.
Not since the single currency is "European economic growth has been uneven," noted economists, however, Societe Generale. Industrial production rose 9.6% year on year in Germany (2.6% in France), whereas it fell by 10.9% in Greece.Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to speak on the role of rating agencies include difficulty many observers that the ECB does not it stands out more openly to their own decisions refinancing of banks.
The U.S. stock markets, should the open down on Wednesday. Future of Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, in fact retreating from 0.24% to 1333.50 points and 0.14%% to 2368.75 points. Tuesday, Wall Street ended the session in a disorganized manner. The Dow Jones lost 0.1% to 12,569.87 points while the Nasdaq 100 has been 0.35% to 2825.77 points. For its part, the broader index S & P 500 yielded 0.13% at 1337.88 points, in a low volume of trade.
Lowering the debt rating of Portugal four notches by Moody's is expected to weigh on investor sentiment on Wall Street.The rating agency has no confidence in the program "ambitious" in the words of the new government which includes to reduce the country's deficit from 9.1% to 5.9% this year, and 3% of 2013, and believes it is likely that Portugal needs a new aid in addition to 78 billion decided last May.
Also on the front of the public finance crisis in Europe, major international banks and insurers have an appointment in Paris today to discuss again the terms of their expected participation in the next plan of aid to Greece.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by renewed worries about the economic health of the most fragile countries in the euro area.Around 11:00 in Paris, the single European currency was worth 1.4359 dollars against 1.4418 dollars late Tuesday.
Warren Buffett eye on the activities of consumer credit from Citigroup
On the macroeconomic front, investors will be watching in the U guaranteed pay day loans.S., the ISM index of activity in the service in June in 16 hours and the weekly inventory of crude oil after half an hour.The main highlight of the week, however, is expected Friday with the employment figures.
The side of values, the U.S. investor Warren Buffett, through his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, is in line to take over the activities of consumer credit offered for sale by the bank Citigroup, the Wall Street Journal said on its website.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the micro-blogging site Twitter is finalizing a new round of finance which would raise hundreds of millions of dollars and the recovery to $ 7 billion.In December, Twitter announced that it has raised funds "important" from a group of investors who, according to a news site dedicated, focused its total value to about $ 3.7 billion.
Also note, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley announced Wednesday it had placed with private investors 9.16% of Spanish giant Amadeus travel bookings, to 569.9 million euros.
In addition, DST Systems has announced the acquisition of IntelliSource Healthcare Solutions, a solutions provider operating in the field of health insurance. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
For its part, Pfizer has reported positive results for the phase III study conducted in Japan on Lyrica (pregabalin) for the treatment of fibromyalgia.
Just arrived in the summer, here are the summer sales. From Wednesday, the clothing retailers will offer discounts of 30 to 50% of their collections. This is for them to attract consumers who shun fashion for nearly two years. If an improvement was seen in the spring, it could be threatened by an inevitable increase in prices of clothing, the impact of rising costs of raw materials, labor and transportation.
"We are all faced with rising production costs that we have at least partly reflected in our prices, and this will be even bigger in the fall and winter," says Antoine Brieu, director of C & A France. Its sign, high image discount, is not doing too badly at the moment, because in inflationary times, consumers fall back on cheap brands.C & A has found "a significant increase in its turnover and sales volumes" in March, April and May
"Buy smart"
In general, the industry experienced a beautiful spring, after a bad first quarter. Sales in April and May were supported by good weather, before a lull since early June due to weather and to wait before a traditional balances. "We have no signs of a recovery in the consumption of textiles in France, contrary to what one can see in some countries of northern Europe, says Gildas Minvielle, head of the center of economic French Institute of fashion. And in times of crisis, it is difficult to raise prices too much.The increases will be applied in a differentiated way for this to be as painless as possible. "
Aware of the issue, the French will then engage in a hunt for "buying smart", as they have done since the beginning of the economic downturn. This time, the scope is relatively narrow. As traders have sold quite well in early spring, the stocks available for sales are less important than the past seasons.
Distinguish the goods to the risk of missing
In addition, professionals, stung by the decline in demand were far more modest in their orders. "Companies have become very conservative for two years.They would rather miss sales than remain with unsold inventory, "said Jean-Marc Genis, president of the National Federation of brands of clothing.
If, as always, a rush is expected at the start of the period, the effect balances the risk of falling fast enough. "We usually sell 50% of our total sales the first week and then is divided by two every week," said Antoine Brieu C & A.
So, after two to three weeks, the goods to stand out may be missed. This will allow retailers to quickly implement the fall-winter season.With price increases all the more important that the parts are more "heavy" coat material includes more than a T-shirt.
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Gain an advantage over competitors like Netflix preparing their arrival in France. Thursday, VideoFutur announced a new offering called "hybrid" meant to build consumer loyalty and especially fond of videos of recent films. Netflix based on the model, offers a package VideoFutur Pass Duo 6.99 euros to access both video on physical media (DVD, Blu-ray) and video on demand over the Internet. For that price, subscribers will have access to all films released theatrically for over nine months on DVD and Blu-ray on Wheels. They have more opportunity to access video on demand for new films four months after their release at a price of 2.99 euros per film.Finally, the subscription will provide access from the start to an unlimited number of old films on the Internet (thirty-six months after their theatrical release).
"We found that video on demand suffered from very competitive prices since, until now, users had to pay 5 euros to access a work. However, the price of a physical video is now 2.90 euros, says Marc Tessier, president of VideoFutur. It was important to align the rates of physical and dematerialized video. We also wanted to compensate for the disadvantage of video subscription which provides access to a limited number of works thirty-six months after their theatrical release. "
This marketing offensive is primarily intended to prepare announced the arrival of more competition in the market for image and video over the Internet.
Rapidly changing
Netflix, the video service to 25 million U.S. subscribers as well as Amazon and Google – the search engine which now recognizes the images – prepare for their arrival in Europe. With their agreements with major U.S. studios purveyors of blockbusters, these new players may be required. For VideoFutur, it is especially important to speed up the transfer that the company is experiencing a difficult situation. In 2010, the results showed a loss of nearly 6 million euros for a turnover amounting to 8.2 million euros, down 42%. If the company does not envisage a return to balance by 2013, however, it focuses on new developments such as increasing the number of physical stores, which should be of the order of fifty 'By the end of the year.
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