LE FIGARO – What are the economic consequences for Japan?
Jean-Pierre Petit – Contrary to what we believed in the early hours of the earthquake, the impact is probably greater than that of Kobe in 1995, which cost 10,000 billion yen, or 2.5% of GDP. The affected area this time, north-east, weighs 8% of GDP against 4% for Japanese Kobe, and it includes many production units and automotive electronics. But the most serious is the risk that nuclear has a direct impact on energy resources, since the nuclear provides 25% of national electricity consumption.This is the novel aspect of this tragedy is still not able consequences even if they tend to be exaggerated by the markets.
Could there be a rapid rebound in the economy?
It's terrible to say but disasters still have a stimulating effect in the short / medium term impact on the economy when the state starts rebuilding. Japan's GDP rose by 5% annualized rate during the three quarters that followed the disaster in Kobe. Provided that the nuclear situation eventually stabilized, it will be the same this time all the opposition has indicated it would follow the government's economic stimulus projects.In absolute terms, Japan has a debt problem, which represents 200% of its GDP, but this does not prevent him from borrowing in good condition because 95% of this debt is held by the Japanese.
What are the consequences for the global economy?
A Japanese recession would not have much impact on the global economy. At its peak in the early 1990s, Japan accounted for 18% of global GDP in current dollars. Today, it represents only 9%. Japan – with U.S. – the least open of the major developed countries, it acts early in the production chain and there is a net exporter. A slowdown in its economy weighs little on final demand and global activity.Viewed differently, global growth amounted to 3.6% since 2000 and Japan is almost no contribution!
The succession of disasters threat does not resume?
The paradox is that the number of natural disasters is rising trend since the early 1950s, as they have been multiplied by 20 in fifty years, before breaking a bit since the early 2000s. At the same time, the average unit cost of natural disasters has remained stable, amounting to $ 240 million on average between 1950 and 2010. For the total cost of natural disasters (including the growing number), it has increased, but at a pace close to that of U.S. GDP (6% per year).In other words, the cost of disasters relative to GDP is stable world since 1900: the events are more frequent but the risks better managed and the impact remains low overall.
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2010 was the year of banking. After Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Banque Populaire, or Savings Bank is now the turn of Credit Agricole unveiled annual results in good order.
Far from 8 billion in profits from BNP Paribas, Societe Generale 4 billion or 3.6 billion BPCE the green bank, however, did not blush with a profit of 1.3 billion euros recorded in 2010, up 12.3%. Over the full year, Credit Agricole has managed to grow its revenues by 12% to 20.1 billion euros, faster than operating expenses, up 8%. The group's results also benefited from a significant decline in the cost of risk (delinquent loans).
Loss of 1.2 billion due to Intesa Sanpaolo
Especially Crédit Agricole exceeds expectations in the fourth quarter.The facility has posted a net loss of 328 million euros in the quarter but analysts had forecast a larger loss of over 400 million. As announced in mid-December, the bank recorded a loss on its stake in Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo, owned up to 4.79%, which reduced its end result of 1.24 billion euros in the fourth quarter. For accounting purposes, the property had to reclassify its stake in Italian bank participation in sustainable participation available for sale payday loan companies. This reclassification has created an updating and a fall in the value of the share capital of Crédit Agricole of Intesa Sanpaolo. Moreover, the bank spent a depreciation of 418 million euros on its Greek subsidiary Emporiki.
Core Tier 1 ratio of 10.3%
Another reassuring news, the bank says it does not need to appeal to the market to meet the new standards imposed under the Basel III. The institution considers its core Tier 1 ratio (measuring the ability of a bank to repay deposits to its customers) of around 10.3%.
Moreover, the bank stated that it reached an agreement with the supervisory authority to compensate for the exclusion of the shareholder loan and certain hybrid debt instruments in the capital calculation. A guarantee facility provided by the regional banks that control almost 55% of Crédit Agricole SA is well established. A procedure which should enable the bank to provide the equivalent of 5.5 billion euros of capital, a wealth sufficient to banish the specter of the capital increase.
Objective: to distance vis-à-vis the City. While the controversy bounces across the Channel on lavish bonuses bankers, the government of David Cameron has chosen to burden of 800 million pounds (942 million) the new tax basis on the balance sheets of banks. London is well draw now £ 2.5 billion, when its previous estimates had forecast 1.7 billion. The levy, which applies to UK banks and UK subsidiaries of foreign firms, will bring another 2.5 billion in 2012 and 2.6 billion thereafter.
At first, George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, had planned a gradual rise of the levy, the successor to the windfall tax on the bonuses that had generated 3.5 billion pounds of revenue in 2010.The idea was to allow banks to replenish their equity perspective of European regulations Basel 3. But the good results of HSBC and Barclays more – 24 billion pounds expected by UK credit institutions – have changed the situation. This tax is "a fair contribution to reducing the budget deficit," said George Osborne.
Waiting for the Merlin Project
Downing Street hardens tone vis-à-vis banks just before the season officially starts do bonuses. Some see a sign that the government has little hope of obtaining commitments of moderation in this respect, as he hoped.Already, information published in newspapers across the Channel on the 9 million pound bonus Advance Bob Diamond, Barclays' chief executive, and Stuart Gulliver, head of HSBC, revived the controversy on recurrent variable remuneration payday loans.
To reconcile the financial sector in general with the public, banks and government have been trying for weeks to complete an ambitious, dubbed Project Merlin. Among its requirements, Downing Street wanted the large banking institutions limit bonuses. With an expected budget of 6 billion pounds of variable remuneration provided, the City does not seem to have listened to the dictates of moderation."It would have been better, when we save the banks, to secure something in return," coward George Osborne: "Unfortunately, I was not the chancellor at that time" …
Westminster also asked HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and RBS in banking to provide SMEs about 190 billion pounds of loans, just like what the Elysee had negotiated with the French banks to finance the economy. In addition, the British bankers are asked to develop a £ 1 billion fund to build capital for small businesses.
"The discussions are not completed," admits George Osborne, who hopes to increase "substantial and significant" loans to businesses.And say: "I am always confident about the fact that we can reach an agreement with banks expected to increase loans to small businesses and lower bonuses."
The Paris Bourse rebounded on Wednesday. After a fence down, ACC was the slope and starts on the day up 0.60% to 4043.92 points. Even movement on other European markets: the DAX in Frankfurt gained 0.47% to 7092.89 points in early trade while the FTSE in London ahead of 0.59% to 5952.91 points.
Markets should however be wary. The signals sent from Wall Street on Tuesday and since the Asian market this morning are very mixed. Investors, who expected the speech of Barack Obama on the State of the Union, will take time to dissect what the American president.
The latter asked the Democrats and Republicans to "simplify the system. Remove the tax loopholes. Standardize the rules and use the savings to lower the rate of corporation tax for the first time in 25 years, without increasing our deficit. "Conversely, no new announcement has been made on the employment front, despite a persistent unemployment rate to 9.4%. The U.S. president also agreed to extend to five years the spending freeze budget that he believes will allow a saving of $ 400 billion over the period.
Also in the United States, several macroeconomic announcements are expected. During the session will be posted sales of new homes in December and the weekly oil stocks. Later that evening, the Fed makes its rate decision at the end of the meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee. In France, 18 hours, INSEE unveil the unemployment figures for December.
On the currency markets, the euro climbed in morning trading. He exchanged 1.3691 U.S. dollar.
Renault searches
As for values to be followed:
Renault: 3.82% to 49.70 euros
Searches were conducted in recent days by the Central Directorate of Internal Intelligence (DCRI) in the offices of three Renault executives suspected of espionage by the automotive group, and their computers were seized, officials said Tuesday a source familiar file. The manufacturer's lawyer said that the leak of such information in the media was damaging the image of Renault.
Publicis: +0 quick payday loans.36% at 37.75 euros
The number three global advertising has launched a friendly takeover of the British advertising agency Chemistry for 14.45 million pounds (16.70 million euros).
Vivendi: -0.11% to 21.80 euros
The group sold its remaining stake in NBC Universal. The transaction brings in 3.8 billion euros.
Sanofi-Aventis: 0.30% to 50.80 euros
The group announced Tuesday two hits in the U.S., where the health authority has authorized the sale of its non-prescription anti-allergy Allegra beginning of March, and extended by six months of marketing exclusivity for its anticoagulant Plavix.
EADS: +0.10% at 20.76 euros
Thomas Cook has announced the signing of a contract for the firm order for 12 Airbus A321 and also says plan to sign a lease agreement covering aircraft from the A320 family.
Areva: 0.14% to 35.55 euros
The giant nuclear buckled the capital increase in favor of holders of investment certificates (IC) in an amount of 35 million euros, an operation after which the nuclear expert has lifted a total 935 million euros.
EDF: 0.22% to 32.21 euros
Proglio will be auditioned in the morning in committee in the National Assembly.
Rafale Results
Klépierre: 0.82% to 26.41 euros
The group reported a 2.9% increase in turnover to 988.6 million euros in 2010, supported by rental income group, especially in malls.
Mersenne (ex-Carbone Lorraine): 1.36% to 35.49 euros
The group's activity rebounded last year thanks to the development of alternative energies and Asia but believes it is too early to make predictions for 2011.
Spir Communication: 1.71% to 37.35 euros
The group maintained its objective of operating income to balance in 2010 by announcing a decline in sales in 2010 weakened its media division.
NextRadioTV: -0.76% to 14.29 euros
The media group has registered an increase of 14% of its turnover in 2010 to support the dynamism of its TV operations.
The board of directors of the Audiovisual outside France (AEF) held in an atmosphere with a knife to cut both the relationship between Alain de Pouzilhac and Christine Ockrent is tight for six months.However, Alain de Pouzilhac has agreed to a gesture by saying: "Christine, I've never directly accused in this case" and arguing that it considered itself reached in his honor by the charges of hacking it the subject.
The CEO of external broadcasting also said that the crime involved only "the holding structure and not the television channel France 24", as has been claimed.
"An intolerable situation"
This subject was not upset to be addressed, but Michel Herbillon MP, representing the council has put his foot in it to evoke "an intolerable situation requiring an urgent solution for a company that carries the image of France to the abroad " paydayloans.A position that would have caused the approval of qualified persons present, as well as staff representatives.
Another sticking point, the majority of the board expressed concern about the failure to sign the contract objectives and expected ways to fix the company's strategy until 2013. The state official promised a "speedy resolution".
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The benchmark index of the stock market in South Korea, the Kospi 200, wins again at 0.95% 279.24 points on Wednesday at 7 pm. Allowing it to enter its highest level ever in the history of the stock of the country.
Seoul Stock Exchange had already closed the year 2010 before recording a record at the close. The KOSPI surged 21.88% in 2010 to $ 2051 and points, a level not seen since November 2007. Now, the values of South Korean stock market rebounded from ground lost during the crisis, and they even display historic gains, thanks to sustained domestic demand last year, and their results.
Analysts estimate that the KOSPI could rise to 2400 points this year.South Korea enjoys good prospects for growth: as its Central Bank, GDP should grow by 4.5% in 2011.
Tokyo followed the lead of Wall Street
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended the session on Wednesday edged up 0.36%, investors are showing more optimism about the financial performance of U.S. firms during the presentation. Yesterday, IBM and Apple have unveiled much better results than expected. Thus at the close, the Nikkei 225 index gained 38.12 points to 10,557.10 points. The broader Topix index of his side took 0 payday loans in one hour.57% to 936.87 points.
Note side values, the group of electrical, electronic and computer Japan's Mitsubishi Electric said Wednesday that Japan build a new factory parts for automotive steering, looking to increase its annual production of about 70%.Mitsubishi Electric, which presents itself as a pioneer systems electric power steering, will invest 10 billion yen (90 million euros) for this new factory with an area of 38,000 square meters, which must be put into operation in August 2012.
China U.S.
Chinese President Hu Jintao arrived here Tuesday in the U.S. for a four-day visit, after a year marked by strong tensions between the two powers, with China being the subject of multiple reviews. Hu Jintao heads a country pointed to the issues of human rights and money, impossible to ignore given its economic weight and, increasingly, military and geopolitical. The undervaluation of the Chinese currency will be at the heart of discussions between Barack Obama and Hu Jintao on Wednesday in Washington.Beijing to revalue its currency at its own pace, while dreaming of one yuan as important as the dollar.
Tail Photo Credits: Alexander F. Yuan / AP
A new record each year. For the passage in 2011, mobile phone users were more numerous than last year to send their wishes virtually, via SMS or MMS. 400 million short messages have been exchanged on the night of New Year's Eve, and the various operators expect to deliver 611 million by the end of the day. A figure projected to increase by 24% compared to last year.
But already, SFR, Bouygues Telecom and Orange observe a double-digit growth of sent messages. SFR recorded 128 million SMS between 20 o'clock and eight o'clock in the morning (+28% increase), Orange just over one hundred million (+17%) between 21 hours and two hours of the morning, and Bouygues 57 million ( +18%) over the same time slot.The MMS data, these mini-messages containing a photo or video, however, are more fragmented and remain below the levels achieved by the SMS.
Delivery times lengthened
Records of incessant sending SMS and MMS were partly boosted by sales of smartphones, up 138% over the first eight months of the year, according to research firm specializing Gfk. The financial issue is not very important for operators who n'engrangent little revenue from this annual influx. Text messaging is indeed free or included in a package for most users.
The challenge for SFR, Bouygues and Orange is more on the side of the technological challenge and the brand returned to their customers. While an SMS is usually less than a minute to reach its destination, the delays have been significantly lengthened by 1 January, the peak consumption.To cope with this influx of exception, for most operators had increased their workforce. Orange, no less than 24,228 SMS were sent per second to 0:02.
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After a week particularly hesitant, the CAC 40 is changing sharply higher Monday. Halfway through, he climbs to 1.07% and iron and the milestone of 3900 points to 3908.60 points. With the approach of Christmas and the end of the year, a period conducive to window dressing. The U.S. exchanges have closed Friday at closer to their equilibrium level. As for society, as Ingenico plunges.
The Nikkei finished the session down by 0.85% on Monday. However, developments in Asian stock markets should not influence the European indices today as purely local concerns weighed on prices.
The concerns of the ECB could be detrimental to European indices. The European Central Bank unveiled its fears about the consequences of the bailout of Irish banks.In an opinion paper (position paper), the institution considers that the allegation of funds to support the Irish banking system could undermine the European financial system.
Also note, according to an OECD study on the situation in Spain, a slow recovery began in the peninsula in the first half of 2010, but growth should remain "soft" due to necessary adjustments in the sector housing and the high level of private debt.
On the macroeconomic front, the meeting promises to be quiet. The Financial Sector Advisory Committee will publish its annual report 2009/2010. Germany's producer prices for the month of November will be known to 8:00. As for the euro, it fell back slightly. About 11:00 am in Paris, the euro bought 1.3154 dollars against 1.3185 dollars on Friday night.
Ingenico sanctioned
In terms of values, the star of the day is the title Ingenico.The government intervened to prevent the takeover of French by the American Danaher this weekend. The title plunged to 9.10% in mid-session at 25.08 euros.
The Crédit Agricole displays the sharpest drop in the CAC 40 with a decline of 0.74% to 10.015 euros. The green bank announced a loss of 1.25 billion in its accounts related to a depreciation in the Italian bank Intesa. Moreover, the banking arm of French affairs of the institution extends its period of exclusive negotiations with the Chinese CITIC, until 30 June. The talks for the establishment of a brokerage and investment bank dedicated to Asia, in a 50-50 partnership, were to terminate on December 31.
More generally, financial stocks should react to the agreement on bonuses.The Financial Services Authority has adopted a measure requiring that at least half of the bonus should be paid in shares. This year, the amount of bonuses would be down 20% to 30% in Europe. On Wall Street, they could even be zero.
Conversely Axa leads the CAC 40 with a gain of 2.17% to 12.92 euros. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch joined the title in his list of favorite European values. Moreover, the number one German energy EON announced Monday the sale of its gas network in Italy to the Italian fund F2i SGR and French Axa Private Equity.
Rhodia (5.82% to 24.075 euros) Overtakes Lead increases in DTH. Morgan Stanley rose to a positive and raised its target price of 17-29 euros. The analyst raised its profit forecast and said the lag is suffering from a discount of 30% from the field of specialty chemicals.Also the market welcomed the remarks of Jean-Pierre Clamadieu, CEO of Rhodia, reported by the weekly Invest. Rhodia's boss recalled the strong presence of its affiliates in Asia, which is considered an asset in its industry and recalled the ambitious strategic plan recently presented by the group.
Sanofi-Aventis sign one of the largest increase with a gain of 1.51% to 49.39 euros. The laboratory announced Monday the signing of a global alliance with Avila Therapeutics Research covalent drug targeted to treat various types of cancer.Drugs called "covalent" can make completely inactivate proteins that cause diseases and blocks their function.
GDF Suez is also well directed (1.99% to 27.72 euros), while in an interview with La Tribune, lGérard Mestrallet, CEO, criticized the pricing strategy of EDF. The latter wants the lights electrician practice a price of 35 euros per megawatt hour, not 42 in the framework of the law Nome aimed at reforming the French electricity market.
In addition, Arcelor Mittal advance of 0.86% to 29.28 euros.He announced Saturday that it raised its offer for Canadian mining group Baffinland Iron Ore Mines at $ 1.25 Canadian per share against 1.10 Canadian dollars in its initial offer.
Outside the CAC 40, Hermes (-1.18% to 155.50 euros) does not leave the Stock Exchange that would be very expensive, said his number two operational daily Il Sole 24 Ore dated Sunday.
Scor (+0.32% at 15.06 euros) announced today that it has completed implementation of its hedging program financial disaster of 150 million euros for a period of 3 years.
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Just ended the drama of the capital increase that a new front opens in Areva: the succession of Anne Lauvergeon to head the group French world leader in nuclear power. The state has to initiate the process, while the mandate of the current President of the Executive – in charge for ten years – expires next June.
The nomination committee of the board stopped on some names. That of chief strategy officer of EADS Marwan Lahoud, also the former head of Thales Denis Ranque. And especially that of the current right arm at Bercy the Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, Alexandre de Juniac.The latter filed a case to the Committee on Standards in Public – the body that must give its consent to officials and members of cabinet ministers who choose to leave the public service to fill positions in private – "out of respect principles and procedures, "he says.
If he says nothing, this X-NAS 48-year-old father of 3 children, has in mind the controversy caused by the passage of the Elysee Perol head of Caisse Savings Bank popular while the ethics commission had not been seized.
Members of the Committee will meet Tuesday to assess the feasibility of moving to executive assistant to the chief executive of Areva.While some may accuse Alexander of Juniac have contributed to the treatment of the thorny issue of the recapitalization of the nuclear group, it could be argued that decisions were taken at the Elysee and a policy board meets regularly to nuclear make strategic decisions in this area.
His predecessor at Bercy, Stephane Richard, had been reunited with France Telecom without incident. To ensure a smooth transition, it is also possible that the successor to Anne Lauvergeon between an executive position before taking the reins of the company's schedule.
General Assembly
Meanwhile, the next important date for Areva is December 23, when the general meeting of shareholders must approve the capital increase of the company.Last Saturday, the supervisory board voted positively on this issue: Kuwait will provide 600 million euros, the government will contribute 300 million euros. Moreover, investment certificates Areva currently outstanding (representing 4% of capital) should be converted into shares during the first half of 2011. On Monday, the group said the subscription period for holders of those certificates would run from January 3 to 14.
As for the possibility of a new wave of shareholders in the coming months, nothing is settled yet. "Many candidates want to join Areva," insisted Tuesday its chief financial officer, Alain-Pierre Raynaud. What is EDF? "Why not. It is not excluded, but frankly, I do not know if this is the best solution, "said Christine Lagarde in Les Echos.
The contenders are scrambling to the door of the group Yoplait. Since the fund PAI Partners, co-owner with Sodiaal Yoplait, has expressed its intention to pull out, expressions of interest for the cream of the dairy industry is growing.
And even the ISP (Strategic Investment Fund) may participate in the resumption of the Yoplait dairy group, reports Les Echos. French sovereign fund "looks closely at the record Yoplait," says the daily. But for now, no scheme is adopted. However, the ISP would take a minority stake, its role being primarily "to promote the French and their anchoring in France." The fund could facilitate applications and lights.
Aspirants would be many.Several names have been mentioned by the press and especially the Swiss Nestle, the American General Mills, Pepsico and Kraft, or the Anglo-Dutch Unilever and the Mexican Lala. The American investment fund Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts (KKR) already present in France Tarkett (worldwide leader in floor coverings), Legrand (electrical equipment) and group PagesJaunes would also be in the running.
Lactalis: only official candidate
For now, the only known candidate and is the official Lactalis cheese the second world, which made a bid to regain 100% of Yoplait for 1.4 billion euros. However, a proposal rejected by PAI and Sodiaal because it deemed too greedy. In fact, Sodiaal does not separate the second yogurt brand in the world, but could, under certain conditions, agree to reduce its presence in the capital.
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