The CAC 40 ended the week above 3900 points, to 3910.42 points exactly, powered during the afternoon of Friday figures on U.S. employment. This Friday, the Paris stock exchange has closed up 2.14%, slightly eroded after the previous day. The sessions Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were marked by increases comfortable leading the progression of the weekly flagship index +7.3% at Paris, from a closing price last Friday of 3640 points.
The United States has published employment figures less bad than expected. The U.S. economy has destroyed 36,000 jobs in February, according to figures released Friday by the Labor Department. It is far better than economists' forecasts. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. But it remains "inadequate", according to President Obama.At the time of closing in Paris on U.S. exchanges were directed upward, the Dow Jones arrogating 0.8% at 10,531 points.
Moreover, German industry has recorded a surprise jump in orders in January, 4.3%, according to provisional figures published on Friday that far exceeds expectations, thanks to a spectacular increase of 7.1% of domestic orders .
The DAX index of 30 blue chips of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange ended Friday up 1.42% at 5877.36 points against 5795.32 the day before closing. The London Stock Exchange closed higher Friday, the FTSE-100 index of leading values winning 72.60 points, or 1.31% over the closing Thursday at 5599.76 points.
After Market (in 21 hours), the U.S. figures reveal consumer credit.
Veolia Environnement in the single red
Veolia Environnement (-4.26% to 23.94 euros) said before market in 2009 have recorded a turnover of 34.55 billion euros, down 3.4% on year, down slightly higher than expected (-2%). The titles are the only ACC to be in red guaranteed approval cash advance loans .
Still later publications, Areva announced Thursday after the stock market, a 2009 operating profit up 20% to 501 million euros. The turnover showed an increase of 6.4%, to 14 billion euros and net income group share for 552 million euros (-6.3%). The title has been 1.98%, to 352.3 euros. euros.
NicOx reported Thursday a net loss of 60.4 million euros in 2009, cons -73.9 million euros in 2008.The shares gained 1.01% on 5.98, having outperformed the broad trend in recent sessions.
The markets welcomed the gesture of banks
Side of EADS (+1.98% at 15.95 euros), the client countries of the military transport plane A400M and the European industrial group EADS in Berlin on Friday reached agreement on funding for this project has told AFP the French Minister of Defense Herve Morin.
The banking sector remained well oriented on Friday: Societe Generale (+4.83% to 44.95 euros) eventually leads the CAC 40, BNP Paribas (3.67% to 56.78 euros), Credit Agricole (3.19% to 11.66 euros) and Axa (+3.17% to 15.61 eruos) were searched. Following a meeting with Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee, the banks have agreed to reserve 96 billion in financing small and very small.
Casino (-0.38% to 60.20 euros) should start in May its pods, modeled on that of Nespresso. In France, the market for coffee pods is estimated at 1 billion euros, half for Nespresso.
Natixis (0.90% to 3.69%) is under the radar of the AMF. A book published Thursday reveals that the former officers have disclosed false information to markets, in October 2008.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the group's boss, Jean-Bernard Levy, said he was interested in the sale of a mobile frequency by the governor of Brazil. According to analysts, this would require an investment base of over one billion euros.
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5 000 participants in round tables, 800 proposals from across the territory, hours of debate … Put the issue of competitiveness at the heart of the debate: it was the whole purpose of the General Industry. Today, while traveling at Eurocopter in Marignane (Bouches-du-Rhone), Nicolas Sarkozy will close the first phase of work completed since last October by announcing a series of steps to a new industrial policy 'ambitious, powerful and consistent, in the words recently used by the Elysee.
I must say it is urgent.Beyond the occasional cases in which the government provides the voice for several months (Heuliez, Molex, Total …), de-industrialization of the country is evident for several years: between 1980 and 2007 its contribution to national wealth rose by 24 % to 14% and, over this period, its numbers have melted to a trickle, from 5.32 million to 3.41 million – a drop of 36% of its workforce, according to estimates by the Treasury Department.
Accompanied on Thursday morning from the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, and his industry colleagues, Christian Estrosi, the head of state should take over the main proposals ginned in recent months by the companies themselves, partners social and ministers themselves.
To restore the industrial base of France, the government initially advocated a policy of industry.Because it takes a more balanced relationship between contractors and subcontractors, instead of a relationship "to dominate dominated" commonplace today. The establishment of investment funds sector for the most strategic channels to digital, energy, transportation, pharmacy … – with the participation of principals, should be announced.
Governments also want to encourage employment – particularly in developing mentoring by senior citizens and reorganizing the training – and the location in France of production tools and research."It is not normal that BMW produces nearly three quarters of its cars in Germany and Renault do not produce only 25% in France, likes to cite the example of Christian Estrosi.
On the one billion euros dedicated to general statements in the large loan, 185 million have also been planned to provide repayable loans to companies wishing to reinvest in France. A total of 500 million for loans at subsidized rates for green investments is also provided in this framework.
Innovation, a perpetuation of the current form of research tax credit – at least for SMEs – would be announced today. The CIR could also be extended to expenditure standards, patents and prototypes. One idea that won almost unanimous support.In one detail, cost: about one billion euros.
"Do not close the file"
For the CGT – including metallurgy and chemical federations call for day of action Thursday for the defense of employment in the industry – "the government should not close the file of the General Industry (…) After a speech by President of the Republic. "
This is unlikely to be the case … In fact, some people put on the table at the conclusion of the General Industry require further reflection. Especially the financing industry. Ways to redirect part of the French savings to industry, SMEs and unlisted companies should be studied by the summer.Such a new method of financing social protection, less work-related, too.
Time, it will also need a bit to play a proactive role at European level in order to convince the Member States of the need for a common industrial policy.
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The euro fell on Thursday to its lowest level since June 22, 2009. This morning, the euro was worth 1.3827 U.S. dollar before recovering to 1.3834 dollar. The single European currency also retreated against the yen at 125.70 yen.
This drop is explained in particular by the concern of traders due to budgetary problems of many countries in the euro area. Many expect a strong intervention of Europe and even appealed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help Greece to get out of a budget crisis without precedent.
Another concern is about the euro on the currency market, the case of Spain, which has poorly digested crisis including an unemployment rate of nearly 20%.Besides Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF head, spoke Thursday on RTL crisis "very strong in Spain and that the country had" an effort "to reduce public deficits one hour payday loan . The Spanish public debt has soared just over 60% of GDP in 2010 while in 2007 it accounted for only 36.2% of GDP.
Tuesday, Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008, believed that Spain was the main weakness in the euro area. To this the Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs, Elena Salgado, has responded Thursday by saying on the radio station La Cope: "The euro is a very strong and we continue to strengthen the currency.I see absolutely no risk for the euro area, "adding," there may be a lack of understanding about what the euro means for our economy. "
Another country in the euro area is also starting to worry, Portugal, again because of deteriorating public finances of the country. Besides the titles of Portuguese banks fell by 5 to 6% Thursday on the Lisbon Stock Exchange.
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Medef to Unemployment Insurance, Union des industries and metal trades (UIMM) becomes very visible social issues. It has always been the heart of its expertise and sphere of influence, but the employers' federation was forced to the discretion, after revelations about the cash withdrawals from his former manager and his huge windfalls anti-strike . IAJ President since late 2007, Frederic Saint-Geours, 59, chief financial officer of SAP, warns against the risks of "clip the wings of the recovery", defends the need for strong industry and answered questions found on the ambitions of "Steelworkers" among employers.
LE FIGARO. – The latest unemployment figure is better. Is this a sign of lasting improvement?
Frédéric SAINT-GEOURS.-feeling of our members on their activities is very varied.Capital goods or export sectors are still in great difficulty. Others are more like the automobile, with the premium snack, or remain at good levels as railway equipment. I have two concerns for the future. First, many companies have exhausted the means for maintaining the relationship with their employees, including partial unemployment. If their order book does not go back, they should ask themselves questions about their workforce. Therefore, the employment situation will not improve substantially until a few months. You have to look if it is possible to extend these devices. Second concern: in two or three months, the companies have completed their 2009 accounts, which are often degraded.If banks apply their analytical tools such classic figures, they refuse many loans – I am not talking about fund investments, but simply increasing needs for working capital resulting from a rebound in activity. The risk is to clip the wings of the recovery. We are working on this with the mediator credit, Gerard Rameix.
You have to participate in the States-General of Industry. The final report sets the goal of "restoring an industrial ambition" to France. Does it still make sense to argue at the national level?
Clearly, yes. Exports from France, this is 80% or 85% of industrial goods.However, if we had kept our market share of ten years ago in world trade, it would be 100 billion euros 'turnover' in addition to France, so perhaps hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions in tax revenue, R & D … But in France, the industry faces obstacles that are not specific to him: taxes, too focused on factors of production, education must increase training to new technologies, new businesses such as green growth, or difficulty in finding long-term financing. Now we need the conclusions of the General does not remain in the state report.
When it comes to the carbon tax, this time you prefer to speak to Europe!
Exactly.The business tax was a mistake French, it is deleted and that is not enough to put French industry at par with its rivals in terms of competitiveness – and I speak of our European rivals, not Chinese! Do not create another anomaly French with the carbon tax.
On behalf of the same desire to save France in the industry, the state interferes in the strategy of Renault and Total. Shoot there too far interventionism?
The State must play its role as guarantor, no manager. The dialogue, the contract may be more effective than law and regulation, because they give companies greater flexibility, flexibility.That is how the UIMM signed agreements on training, employment of older workers, after taking a diagnosis with the unions in the sector.
The Delegate General of the UIMM, Jean-François Pilliard, took the head of the Social Protection Committee of the MEDEF. So, does it change the approach to the appointment pensions?
I recommend that we proceed at cross as we used to do in the UIMM: establish a working group, consult widely to build the position of business before entering the "hard" discussions. This must be done quickly, but there are already many tests. Finding a consensus will be difficult, but we must absolutely try.
Your annual convention, March 18, will focus on how employers' organizations can be useful to businesses.Three months after the start of the food industry, the MEDEF should it be seen as a veiled threat?
On the contrary! The subject is exactly one: from business needs and how to respond with a simple, cost control, and effective. Effective, that is to say, which makes a service to members (of the economy, tax, legal, social …) which allows them to best be heard locally and nationally. This suggests the most appropriate organizations. Asking these questions is not a threat, as an aid to employers throughout the world. How many times have we heard of the structural complexity employers!
Should we open the question of the employer's representative?
I can not imagine anyone not treated during the convention. I would add that the UIMM be extremely firm on the joint system: it must develop.We need stronger intermediary bodies to better address important issues, which must generate the widest possible accession. As to the joint management (Insurance Unemployment Agirc-Arco …), it must go further now that the new rules of representation reinforcing the legitimacy of unions. This requires changing the rules of governance, transparency, funding. It is possible the UIMM did in six months.
Do you agree with the criticism of the President of the MEDEF?
There is no question for us to weaken the MEDEF. Businesses need a strong employer representation and united.Our convention and the arrival of Jean-François Pilliard as President of the Welfare Committee of MEDEF serve to strengthen it.
But when your delegate said that joining the team of Laurence Parisot does not constitute support for the renewal of its mandate, it is a sign of defiance!
Not at all. What is being done every day, Jean-François Pilliard and me? We work. In UIMM and MEDEF. We are all employers who are negotiating delegations, which met the government. No confidence, we serve the cross. I do not say it was easy every day …
The present UIMM Does a candidate for President of the MEDEF?
We will do things in order. We will set our direction in our convention. We'll see if one candidate or another the endorsement.Otherwise, we'll see.
Where are your projects using your famous "kitty"?
Again, the idea is to use these reserves heritage as a service to businesses. What are their issues? Develop. In January alone, our system of capital development has taken investment decisions totaling 9 million euros, and these are multiplied by 4 to 10 other investors. Second issue, recruit. We will launch the next wave of our communication campaign in the spring, to show young people that may be realized in the industry. And we've released several million as part of our integration fund to help companies find skills, including among those furthest from employment. Finally last challenge, innovate.Our other endowment funds joint research projects university-industry or education programs that meet the needs of businesses.
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The United Kingdom is concerned that a boomerang effect will weaken his come back. On January 1, VAT is in fact rise to 17.5%, having been exceptionally lowered to 15% for a year to boost consumption. Economists from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think again increase the VAT rate could be "stalling a recovery in its infancy."
The Center for Economic Research, which called in July 2008 a decrease of 5% tax, advance that have prolonged the VAT at 15% until July 2010. Joerg Radeke, economist at CEBR, said that the consumer will still need a boost in the first half. Inflation should indeed start rising, exceeding the 3%, which should lead to a decrease of 0.7% of household spending.In 2010, consumption would fall by 0.2%, according to economist.
The test balances
The effects of the rise in VAT rates could soon be visible through balances. If the high shopping season has started on the Bleeding Edge, economists fear it is only a deadweight, consumers rushing to the shelves before the tax goes back to 17.5 %. "They certainly have some early purchases in November and December," Analysis Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, senior economist at BNP Paribas.
The decline in consumption expected in early 2010 should still be written off by the pricing of retail giants such as Tesco. The largest British retail group has decided not to pass on the rising rate of VAT on certain non-food products.This should enable consumers to save another 12 million pounds (13.4 million euros), according to the distributor. The Sainsbury and Home Retail, among others, have also decided to sacrifice their margins.
Beneficial effects difficult to measure
In total, Jörg Radeke the CEBR believes that the rise in VAT rates, premature, and likely to "wipe out most of the benefits had been reduced fee. Still, it is difficult to estimate what were these "benefits" in 2009. According to the CEBR, reduced VAT rates contributed 0.5% to growth of British GDP.
The effect has not been miraculous. While passing the reduced rate, in the first quarter of 2009, "Private consumption fell 1.5% from fourth quarter of 2008, after a similar decline over the previous period," said Caroline Newhouse-Cohen.A decrease which stabilized until July. But economists agree that even if the measure has cost 4.3 billion pounds (4.8 billion euros) to the Treasury, the economic situation would have been worse without it.
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The gross public debt (government, social security and local authorities) continues to rise. At the end of the third quarter, gross debt under the Maastricht amounted to 1457.4 billion, up from 29.4 billion the previous quarter, according to figures published by INSEE on Tuesday. "Expressed as a percentage of GDP, it is approximately 75.8%, up 1.9 points," says the National Institute of Statistics. In the second quarter, the debt had reached 73.9% of GDP.
The increase over the period, less than that observed in the second quarter (61.1 billion euros), was driven in particular by the increase in debt of the state. To finance the budget deficit, the state has cut its debt of 23.4 billion euros.The debt has also funded a stake in the Company making state participation in a French bank, Crédit Agricole 3 billion, INSEE said.
The social security funds have also contributed to the increase in gross public debt to the tune of 5.9 billion euros, "particularly as a result of increased indebtedness of the ACOSS (3, 9 billion euros), "details the INSEE.
The government has included in his bill to finance the debt was still progress to 77.9% of GDP at the end of the year. In 2010, it expects debt to 84% of GDP, without taking into account the large loan.
Moreover, net public debt, which includes cash and short-term is highest increase over the period, the gross debt.It was heavy with 57.1 billion euros over the second quarter, rising late September to 1331.5 billion. In case a "sharp decrease in cash of the State (-28.3 billion), returning to a level close to that of a year ago," said INSEE.
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The new center-right government led by Angela Merkel won this Friday's first showdown managing to impose a package of tax breaks very controversial. After leading the revolt against the camps, the regional states Conservatives have finally adopted the plan to "stimulate growth" in the Bundesrat, the upper house of Parliament, by voting the 8.5 billion tax cuts promised by the Chancellor . These measures, intended to provide a boost to growth, will take effect from 1 January 2010.
The law includes an increase in family allowances, relief of estate costs and lower tax rates on value added tax (VAT) in hotels. The Chancellor and his ministers have negotiated hard these days to convince the heads of recalcitrant regional government by promising billions of euros in compensation.Including Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, whose finances are particularly vulnerable by reducing taxes.
Reticence of "wise"
Failure before the Upper House would have been a blow to the government, in place since late October, and whose beginnings have been chaotic, marked by infighting and controversy. The Minister President of Hesse, Roland Koch (CDU) has welcomed this "step in the right direction.""This is an important signal showing that the Länder black-yellow (conservative liberals) support the federal government black-yellow," he said.
The government of Angela Merkel has also exceeded the reluctance of the Court of Auditors and "wise", the government's economic advisers, and many economists, who consider irresponsible to offer tax breaks while Germany plans to contract a debt record 100 million euros in 2010. They also believe that these tax incentives will not impact on growth.
In its coalition agreement the Liberal-Conservative government of Merkel provides additional tax cuts of around 24 billion euros in 2011. Roland Koch prognostic already "talks tough and violent," to take the next tax cuts.
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