Near the branch, which includes regional trains and also houses Keolis, a subsidiary of public transport, has become the main contributor to the SNCF group with a turnover of over $ 9 billion over nine months, up 6.5% compared to last year. "Proximity" of benefits including state aid to bail out the trains balance of the territory (TET), these unprofitable lines that the state has agreed a year ago to subsidize.

"We are doing better in all branches thanks to the improvement of agreements signed with Réseau Ferré de France, for which the branch Infra work more profitable, but also with the state as part of the TET, said David Azema. Because trains balance of the territory we had last year a loss of 210 million euros.This year, we charge the revenues of the State by this convention. "

A flat on the side of freight transport

However, a shadow appears on the side of freight transport. If SNCF Geodis displays a nine-month increase of 3.8% of its turnover, the logistics sector was down 1.1% in the last quarter. "The activity of Transportation Commission, which worked very well, has declined by 8.7% during the last quarter which is a measure of slower traffic flows between Asia and Europe," says David Azema.

This performance should enable the group to achieve its margin, its leaders do not want to reveal.

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That is not this shift, now usual between the North and South, which most worries economists in Washington. "The risks are clearly downward," acknowledged Olivier Blanchard.Referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades, he admits that there is now a risk of recession with a probability of 38% in the U.S. and 17% to 18% in the United Kingdom and France, if one believes the econometric calculations.

For its part, the IMF has produced an alternative scenario combining three ingredients, "the uncontrolled financial turmoil in the euro area, combined with a deteriorating growth outlook for the medium term in the United States and a financial backlash on the real estate sector in emerging Asia. " Given the limited room for maneuver of monetary and fiscal advanced countries, the United States and the euro area might then go into recession, with activity levels less than 3% in 2012 to what is seen in the baseline scenario of WEO.Japan is not free, losing 1.5% growth compared to the central projections, or even emerging Asia, which would end 2 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% lower than expected.

If the IMF raised the specter of recession it is best to exorcise it. And governments to launch "a fervent call to action". "The leaders (politicians) are set back one step on the evolution of markets," said the economist of the IMF. "Europe can not provide the luxury of waiting three or four months to implement the plan of July 21 and in particular the reform of the European financial stability."

Accordance with his duties as conductor of globalization, the IMF presented a roadmap in three points. "The first fiscal policy. Consolidation can not be too fast because it would kill growth. It can not be too slow because it would undermine its credibility. "Olivier Blanchard and insist that the tempo has to be adapted to each country. It also considers that there are three ways to support domestic demand in the country with low interest rates, the ability of banks to distribute loans and solutions to real estate (in the U.S. ).

The second is financial. The IMF again sang the anthem of the recapitalization of banks. "For a number of banks, especially in Europe, this requires the contribution of new capital, preferably private and public sources if necessary."

Third field of action, "the international rebalancing." In this regard the ball is in the court of Asia, which should replace the U.S. consumer as the engine of global growth. "Even if this can not happen overnight," conceded Olivier Blanchard.

A symbol. Barack Obama has surrounded himself Monday police, firefighters, construction workers and teachers whose jobs are threatened by future budget cuts planned by local authorities. During a speech in the Rose Garden of the White House, the president wanted to highlight those businesses that affect the American electorate to sing the praises of his new stimulus plan announced $ 447 billion last week.

"This plan will help our economy in times of crisis … The Congress must immediately pass the American people can not afford to wait fourteen months before we do something," said Barack Obama referring implicitly to the date of the next presidential election in November 2012.The "American Jobs Act" – the name of law – must be voted without the "little games" or "party politics," warned the president that does not want to relive the psychodrama of the summer, with negotiations on raising the ceiling debt.

The Head of State argues that thousands of jobs in public services will be saved if its plan is quickly passed. It provides for $ 130 billion transfer of funds to states to avoid redundancies of civil servants, restoring schools and launch infrastructure projects. The main component of the plan is, however, on $ 175 billion relief of charges paid by employees.Small businesses will also benefit from 65 billion to reduce charges to encourage them to hire.

Still refusing to go into details, the White House maintains that the financing plan will be covered by savings elsewhere, or additional revenue. We should know more on Sept. 19, when the president will submit proposals to the bipartisan Congressional commission tasked with identifying 1.5 trillion dollars in budget savings over ten years. The Director of Budget at the White House, Jack Lew said the President would propose 467 billion in savings.

"It is likely that there is an agreement"

Analysts do not believe that the White House manages to be adopted by all the parliamentarians of the recovery plan proposed. But a compromise seems to be emerging.In particular, the Republicans are seduced by the proposed reduction in charges paid by workers and small businesses. "In my view, it is likely that there is an agreement. The key measure will be tax cuts for small businesses … that we will bring the total plan of around 250 billion dollars, "judge Greg Valliere, chief of the Strategic Policy Advisor to the Potomac Research Group.

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The New York Stock Exchange, which has already ended the session on Wednesday on a very hesitant, was weighed down by fears of contagion from the crisis of European debt to U.S. banks and the threat of a relapse of economy after disappointing figures on the employment front in the United States. Symbol of this fear on the recovery, oil finished down 6% in New York, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery ended at 82.38 dollars.

In Europe, stock markets have been driven into the red, pulled down by banking shares.The markets are worried about the global economic downturn, following the release of retail sales increased very slightly in Britain.

Morgan Stanley is concerned about global growth

Morgan Stanley also lowered its growth forecast of the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries. In a note published Thursday, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead 4.5%.

The bad mood is compounded by a series of important indicators in the U.S. on Thursday and go in the direction of a faltering economic recovery.

First bad news earlier this afternoon with the weekly jobless claims: The Labor Department reported a larger increase than expected last week. They reach 408,000 registrations, against 399,000 the previous week. Economists on average had expected 400,000. The consumer prices have in turn increased more than expected in July (0.5%), driven by the rebound in gasoline prices.

The index of the Philadelphia Fed, the "Philly Fed" came out in very sharp decline in August, well below expectations. It plunged to -30.7 in August from 3.2 in July, while the consensus of analysts expected a slight rebound to 3.7.He thus reached its lowest level since March 2009.

The U.S. index of leading indicators, however, increased more than expected in July to a record high, due to growth in money supply and a decline in jobless claims, the Conference Board said Thursday.

Finally, existing home resales fell contrary to expectations: they were down 3.5% in July, while analysts expected a 3.8% increase, according to figures from the NAR.

New record for gold

In terms of raw materials, while the stock markets fall, gold has reached a new record on Thursday: an ounce of the precious metal rose to 1816.25 dollars on the spot market. Oil markets, prices opened down sharply in New York, the new access affected in a bad mood.To 15 hours (French time), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 85.02 dollars, down 2.56 dollars compared to the previous day.

On the currency markets, the euro lost some ground against the dollar, struggling to find direction in a sluggish market and cautious with the release of U.S. indicators and always weighed down by the debt crisis in the eurozone. At the close of Wall Street, the euro bought 1.4345 dollars against 1.4428 dollars late Wednesday.

Values ​​of the day

Hewlett-Packard, which published its results before the scheduled time (turnover of 31.2 billion, in line with expectations) and resulted in a trading halt, announced it was negotiating the purchase of Autonomy Corp., a transaction by Bloomberg estimated 10 billion dollars. It envisages the other to separate its computer division, its largest business, but less profitable.It also abandons the tablet touchpad.

NetApp declined by 14.04% in early trade to 35.81 dollars. The group missed the consensus for its first quarter of fiscal 2012, with a turnover of 1.46 billion, against $ 1.51 billion expected by analysts. The net decrease of $ 150.7 million to $ 139.5 million

The communications systems equipment supplier JDS Uniphase (-12.81% to 10.20 dollars) has reported a net quarterly profit of $ 9.3 million, or 4 cents per share against 1.5 million the last year. It provides a low turnover in respect of its first quarter due to adverse economic conditions, but is optimistic in view of its order book.

Coca-Cola (-2.14% to 67.80 dollars) will invest four billion dollars more in China between 2012 and 2014, reported Thursday the New China News Agency, quoting the CEO of the world's leading soft drinks.

Sears Holdings (-8.16% to 55.23 dollars) reported a higher loss than expected in the second quarter, sales were weak and the promotions have started margins.

Ross Stores (-4.86% to 68.31 dollars) has reported a better than expected pofitive the second quarter but is cautious about these results for the rest of the year in a difficult environment.

Dollar Tree (-1.34% to 70.84 dollars) has reported an increase of 22% of its profit in the second quarter.The distributor has revised upwards its forecast for earnings per share (between 3.82 and 3.95 against 3.69 dollars and 3.85 dollars expected in May).

IBM (-4.46% to 163.83 dollars) is one of two candidates vying to buy at Lufthansa subsidiary Lufthansa Systems, the German press reported Thursday. Another potential buyer is the conglomerate Tata Group.

Gap (-5.48% to 15.52 dollars) and Foot Locker (-6% to 17.56 dollars) must publish their results after the close.

• John Bellows, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury

In a note posted on his blog, John Bellows has detailed the error of 2000 billion, and deplores the fact that S & P has not reconsidered its decision and has not "given an extra day to reassess carefully the analysis. (…).The size of this error, and the speed with which S & P changed its primary justification when he presented this error, raise fundamental questions about the credibility and integrity of the decision by S & P on this note, "he added.

• Warren Buffett, one of the gurus of global finance

"If there was an A + grade four, this is it I would give the United States," launched the famous billionaire 80 years on the air Fox Business News. "I do not think we (the U.S.) live a second recession," said the oracle of Omaha.

• Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize for Economics

"These people are certainly not in a position to make judgments," he was lampooned on Saturday, recalling the "AAA" distributed by S & P and its competitors to "toxic" cause of the crash world of Fall 2008.Same story with Robert Reich, former labor secretary in Bill Clinton: "The intrusion of S & P in American politics (…) is ironic because, as I noted recently, much of our debt today is directly or indirectly due to failures of S & P, "he wrote on a blog.

• Daniel Alpert, Westwood Capital founder

"The size of the economy of the United States, the wealth of their citizens and assets of the federal state itself are certainly more than adequate to repay with interest all of a few billion and 14,000 dollars of debt in the country, "said he.

• Mohamed El-Erian, head of Newport Beach

Degradation will "feed the uncertainties in the functioning of the global economy, since no other" AAA "which is able and wants to supplement or even replace the role of the United States at the center of the system Global Financial "

• Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank

"Welcome to Crisis 2.0! 1.0 The crisis was the failure of the banking system to wipe the losses stemming from U.S. mortgages at risk (…).This has created a run on banks that have policies determined by moving the debt burden of the private sector to the public sector, "says he."It worked in the short term, but as seen in Europe, the market questions the ability of governments to repay their debt."

• Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, President of the Circle of economists in France

This decision is "madness in its purest form because the Americans are in their ability to repay debt one hour payday loan."

• Elie Cohen, an economist and director of research at CNRS

"In the current crisis," the degradation "adds an extra log on the fire that is taking," he laments.

• Paul Dales, analyst at Capital Economics

"The fact that Standard and Poor's has finally pulled the trigger by passing the debt rating of the United States from AAA to AA + will undoubtedly shake the financial markets opening Monday at their (…).If the mess in the markets continues, the risk of recession will increase further, "he warns.

• Ciaran O'Hagan, rates strategist at Societe Generale

"Even if it was half expected, it is a serious decision. The impact will be far reaching, "Ciaran O'Hagan omen, who fears that we have opened a" Pandora's box. " He said the decision will affect somewhat the "risk-free assets (government bonds) but the response will focus on the highest risk assets, including shares and agencies directly guaranteed by the federal government."

• Charles Wyplosz, an economics professor for Advanced Studies in Geneva

The decision by Standard and Poor's "will cause ripple effects on Spain and Italy and France put pressure (…).The euro area falls into the abyss, "he alarmed.

• Thomas Chalumeau, in Terra Nova, close to the PS

In the bond market, "we are moving towards a sustainable price increases in interest rates applied to debts of the States, the United States and Europe (…). There will be an adjustment of public expenditure by raising taxes and charges.The systematic risk of a greater austerity is to maintain unemployment at a high level, "puts it on hold.

The defense of S & P

The unprecedented deterioration of the U.S. sovereign debt "is not a sanction, much less punishment," said his part Jean-Michel Six, chief economist for Europe, Standard & Poor's.

Simply, according to David Beers, head of the department in charge of sovereign debt rating from S & P, "The downgrade reflects our view that the efficiency, stability and predictability with regard to the development policy measures and political institutions of the United States have weakened, in a time of fiscal and economic challenges that continues, even more pronounced than what we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the note on 18 April 2011. "For him, "the bipartisan plan to reduce debt was not strong enough to bring long-term fiscal situation of the United States on a sound.

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"" The pressure goes up a notch on Europe "

"The crisis puts Europe's leaders under pressure

The Prime Minister also called the agreement by EU leaders on a rescue plan for Greece to step absolutely decisive for the euro area.

This increase in debt could undermine the government's objective to begin to reduce the debt ratios of France from 2013.

The Brussels agreement, which owes much to the efforts of France and Germany, pemettra to avoid bankruptcy of some countries in the euro area, said the Prime Minister after explaining the decisions taken Thursday to French parliamentarians at Matignon.

The "golden rule" would entrench the need to reduce deficits in the French Constitution is more than ever, still says the head of government.

Lowering the debt rating of Portugal four notches by Moody's is expected to weigh on investor sentiment on Wall Street.The rating agency has no confidence in the program "ambitious" in the words of the new government which includes to reduce the country's deficit from 9.1% to 5.9% this year, and 3% of 2013, and believes it is likely that Portugal needs a new aid in addition to 78 billion decided last May.

Also on the front of the public finance crisis in Europe, major international banks and insurers have an appointment in Paris today to discuss again the terms of their expected participation in the next plan of aid to Greece.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro fell sharply against the dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by renewed worries about the economic health of the most fragile countries in the euro area.Around 11:00 in Paris, the single European currency was worth 1.4359 dollars against 1.4418 dollars late Tuesday.

Warren Buffett eye on the activities of consumer credit from Citigroup

On the macroeconomic front, investors will be watching in the U guaranteed pay day loans.S., the ISM index of activity in the service in June in 16 hours and the weekly inventory of crude oil after half an hour.The main highlight of the week, however, is expected Friday with the employment figures.

The side of values, the U.S. investor Warren Buffett, through his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, is in line to take over the activities of consumer credit offered for sale by the bank Citigroup, the Wall Street Journal said on its website.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the micro-blogging site Twitter is finalizing a new round of finance which would raise hundreds of millions of dollars and the recovery to $ 7 billion.In December, Twitter announced that it has raised funds "important" from a group of investors who, according to a news site dedicated, focused its total value to about $ 3.7 billion.

Also note, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley announced Wednesday it had placed with private investors 9.16% of Spanish giant Amadeus travel bookings, to 569.9 million euros.

In addition, DST Systems has announced the acquisition of IntelliSource Healthcare Solutions, a solutions provider operating in the field of health insurance. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

For its part, Pfizer has reported positive results for the phase III study conducted in Japan on Lyrica (pregabalin) for the treatment of fibromyalgia.

"We are all faced with rising production costs that we have at least partly reflected in our prices, and this will be even bigger in the fall and winter," says Antoine Brieu, director of C & A France. Its sign, high image discount, is not doing too badly at the moment, because in inflationary times, consumers fall back on cheap brands.C & A has found "a significant increase in its turnover and sales volumes" in March, April and May

"Buy smart"

In general, the industry experienced a beautiful spring, after a bad first quarter. Sales in April and May were supported by good weather, before a lull since early June due to weather and to wait before a traditional balances. "We have no signs of a recovery in the consumption of textiles in France, contrary to what one can see in some countries of northern Europe, says Gildas Minvielle, head of the center of economic French Institute of fashion. And in times of crisis, it is difficult to raise prices too much.The increases will be applied in a differentiated way for this to be as painless as possible. "

Aware of the issue, the French will then engage in a hunt for "buying smart", as they have done since the beginning of the economic downturn. This time, the scope is relatively narrow. As traders have sold quite well in early spring, the stocks available for sales are less important than the past seasons.

Distinguish the goods to the risk of missing

In addition, professionals, stung by the decline in demand were far more modest in their orders. "Companies have become very conservative for two years.They would rather miss sales than remain with unsold inventory, "said Jean-Marc Genis, president of the National Federation of brands of clothing.

If, as always, a rush is expected at the start of the period, the effect balances the risk of falling fast enough. "We usually sell 50% of our total sales the first week and then is divided by two every week," said Antoine Brieu C & A.

So, after two to three weeks, the goods to stand out may be missed. This will allow retailers to quickly implement the fall-winter season.With price increases all the more important that the parts are more "heavy" coat material includes more than a T-shirt.

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This vote, however, will crystallize the tensions accumulated during the past few months hectic for the distributor.The group has already had in early May, to bracket his other draft terms of division, the 25% stake in its real estate subsidiary Carrefour Property. This 100% Dia does not unanimously. The transaction is certainly strong, if not driven, by Blue Capital, the holding company common group Arnault and Colony Capital, which is the largest shareholder in Carrefour, with 14% of the capital and 20% of the voting rights. The fund Knight Vinke (1.5%) is also favorable.

What is the position of other shareholders? Halley family (founders of Promodes, which merged with Carrefour in 1999) owns approximately 10% of the capital. Some of its members would quietly campaigning against the split of Dia, creative in their view of a direct competitor to Carrefour Spain. Among the heirs of the founders of Carrefour, also head of more than 10%, Thierry Defforey took a stand against, but as individuals.Members of two families each vote as they wish: we can not speak or block in one case or the other pay day loans.

Appearance of floating

The question is how institutional investors vote, much in demand by both sides in recent days. The split must be approved by over 66% of voters to be ratified.

The vote of the General Assembly will determine the CEO Lars Olofsson, weakened by the disappointing results, but also for Blue Capital, the maneuver at Carrefour since his arrival in the capital early 2008 (at an average price per share of around 53 euros). For the holding, the division of Dia is a means to better demonstrate, finally, the share value Carrefour.

Shareholders, including those of employees, will benefit from the appointment on Tuesday to demand an explanation on the appearance of uncertainty that prevails at Carrefour.After two profit warnings last year because of Brazil, and another this year, the group said Thursday of bad news on the results in the first half.

The turnaround of Carrefour Property added to the doubts. Just as the instability of management. Several senior executives recruited by Lars Olofsson left the group. After the departure of James McCann, the chief had promised to be directly involved in the recovery, priority of the activity in France, before naming the day before yesterday a new boss … and financial communication is in keeping. Not to mention the open front in Brazil, where Carrefour seems to invite in Pao de Acucar, the partner of rival Casino.A move that could have been hailed as audacious, but was revealed at a time when the distributor promised to focus its forces on its French hypermarkets …

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To get your hands on the former troublemaker of French fashion, he spends about 100 million euros, 60 million to take over 45% of Hermes Jean Paul Gaultier. This is a book profit of EUR 30 million for Hermes. The designer, advised by the bank Aforge Finance, Puig also sells 10% of its shares, thus assigning to the control of his home, he agrees to be diluted to 45% of capital.

He remains master of the creation and image. " The remaining investment will be devoted to a development plan by Jean Paul Gaultier, especially in the accessories and distribution in Asia payday loans with no fax.

Manna fragrances

Other candidates were interested in the brand, which PPR (which owns Gucci) and perfumer Coty (Chloe, Balenciaga), who quickly closed the case. Inter Parfums (Burberry, Lanvin) was launched in the race without much conviction.At the finish, Puig has eclipsed the joint project presented by the Chinese group Fung, who has just bought Cerruti and Robert Clergerie, and Japan's Shiseido. The latter, through its subsidiary Parisian Beauty Prestige International, is behind the success of Jean Paul Gaultier fragrances, which are the real gem of the house.

If fashion and haute couture have made 26 million euros in turnover last year, with a slight loss, fragrances, with several bestsellers, representing several hundred million euros in turnover business very profitable. This is manna for the moment at Shiseido, until his contract expired in 2016, when Puig likely want to see it reach its other lines. Among them, Paco Rabanne has become a cash machine. Perfumes represent 83% of revenues Puig.

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