September 28, 2011
After Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, is the turn of Credit Agricole announced asset sales. The bank is expected to formalize the announcement today confirming the information in the Financial Times published on Wednesday that does not specify the amount that could take these asset sales.
Particularly exposed to the crisis in Greece with its local subsidiary Emporiki, Credit Agricole, was downgraded by one notch Mood'ys ten days ago, as its rival Societe Generale. By reducing the size of its balance sheet, the bank may, mechanically strengthen its financial soundness. BNP has already announced plans to reduce by 10% the size of its balance sheet by the end of 2012, while Societe Generale provides 4 billion of asset disposals.
This is also seeking to sell its stake in Newedge, the joint venture of Societe Generale and Credit Agricole specializing in derivatives low fee payday loans.According to a source quoted by Reuters, the bank will also consider transfer SGSS, its management subsidiary titles, but no decision had yet been taken.
Reorganization in North Africa and the Middle East
Tuesday, the head of Crédit Agricole in the UAE had told Reuters that the bank had closed its merger and acquisition in North Africa and the Middle East. "We want to focus on areas where we can create value for our customers," he said.
At the Paris Bourse, the Crédit Agricole yield 1.04% to 5.134 euros after climbing 13.10% yesterday, amid rumors of measures to support the banking sector in the euro area.
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September 27, 2011
Gold has not used its safe haven status
Everything came together last week to blow away the gold: a warning from the Fed on the U.S. economy, disappointing indicators in Europe and China and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. And yet, the yellow metal has not taken advantage of the panic in equity markets, stopped in its tracks by pushing the dollar that followed the speech by the Fed. For it is the greenback, this time, which used its safe haven status: he flew Thursday to its highest level in eight months against the euro. But the inflation of the dollar makes it less attractive purchases of dollar-denominated metals, like gold.This increase also decreases the value of gold, pushing the funds and investors looking for liquidity, to abandon their positions on the yellow metal to cover losses in other markets.
Thursday, these two factors have reduced the metal king of 90 dollars. Friday, it sank below the threshold of 1,700 dollars per ounce at meetings, in 1666 dollars, its lowest level since early August. On the London Bullion Market, he finished in 1689 dollars at auction in the evening. Since its record high 1,921.15 dollars in September 6th, he gave up more than 10% of its value. But observers remain confident in the ability of gold to rebound.In addition to strong Asian demand, low interest rates charged by the Fed would still enjoy it, because gold is a good safeguard against inflationary pressures that may arise.
In the wake of gold, precious metals industrial markets have collapsed. The money collapsed by 17% over the week to its lowest level since May He finished Friday at 32.90 dollars per ounce. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, an ounce of platinum finished the week in 1651 dollars, a drop of 8%, while an ounce of palladium finished at 659 dollars, down nearly 10%.
Dollar and oil pessimism saddled
Oil markets, there was also a before and an after Fed. Earlier this week, before knowing the content of the speech of the U.S. central bank, investors showed just cautious.The debt crisis in Europe and global growth forecasts revised downwards by the IMF in any case not an incitement to rise. Tuesday, in a burst of hope, buoyed by the certainty that the Fed launched a new massive operation to support the U.S. economy, growth has occurred, taking a barrel of light sweet crude for October delivery at 86.89 dollars and Brent at 110.33 dollars.
Wednesday started the fall has been rapid. The operation twist the Fed was anticipated and the device does not return any new liquidity in the markets. Hence the skepticism about its effectiveness. Moreover, "the press has depressed the market, noting the significant risks facing the economy," noted analysts at Commerzbank. The rise of the dollar has not helped the situation.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 80.51 dollars Thursday (-6.3%). Prices fell, the worst of the meeting at 79.66 dollars, its lowest level for over a month. Brent, meanwhile, returned that day at 105.34 dollars. "The combination of concerns about economic growth, oil demand and a stronger dollar helped lower prices," Adam Sieminski noted, Deutsche Bank.
Friday, as markets returned to green, oil prices continued to tumble, unable to bounce back after the collapse of the previous day.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended at 79.85 dollars (-10% for the week), while Brent closed at 104 personal loans for bad credit.25 dollars (-5 %).
Copper drops below $ 8,000
Also in the category of risky assets, investors have fled the base metals. They have been hit hard by the pessimism of the U.S. central bank. In addition, there were ominous indicators of activity in France and Germany. Most strikingly, China, world's largest consumer of base metals, annoncéun a decline in manufacturing activity in September, its lowest level in two months.
All these new, been grafted to the debt crisis in the euro zone, came after the announcement by the IMF revised downward its growth forecasts for the U.S. and the euro area.In this context, investors fear more than ever a return to recession in developed economies and a general decline in demand.
The gloom that has pervaded the London Metal Exchange (LME) was illustrated by the fall of the copper on Thursday and Friday, when stock markets posted heavy losses. The red metal, the market barometer, fell at the meeting under the 8000 points to 7788 dollars, a level not seen since September 28, 2010. Since its historic peak in February (to 10,190 dollars per tonne), the price of copper dropped nearly 30%. Nickel has lost up to 18% of its value in two days, tin over 22%. Aluminium, with a loss of 6% is almost the resistance.
According to observers, this general distrust of investors, fueled by the soaring dollar, however, is exaggerated in terms of market fundamentals, at least for copper.The latter has a higher Chinese imports by 21% in August, its highest since January, as well as tight supply due to a massive strike in a major mine in Indonesia.
The sugar melts
Soft commodities were also shaken last week. Per tonne of white sugar in London has fallen by over 13% in one week, losing nearly a quarter of its value in one month, while in New York, raw sugar prices have plummeted more than 15% in five days. In addition to concerns about global growth, has suffered from the sugar harvest prospects soaring in India and Europe, including Russia and the European Union. China has also marketed 200,000 tons from its stock state.
For its part, cocoa continued to fall Thursday in London to reach its lowest level since August 2009, to 1745 pounds per ton.Brown bean was already suffering from the announcement of record crops in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, the two largest exporters worldwide. On the NYBOT, ICE U.S., the contract for December delivery lost 5.5% on Friday week in 2624 dollars, while on the Liffe in London, a tonne of cocoa for December delivery, dropping 2.3% to 1734 lbs.
Coffee prices have also increased their decline, the price of arabica listed in New York yielding over 10% in the week at 234.85 cents. Even bearish for wheat, corn and soybean crops and penalized by the stronger than expected yields in the northern Midwest, United States. The courses also suffered from a shift in Chinese demand for soybeans to Latin America because of rising dollar and competition from countries of Eastern Europe for wheat, shown by the loss of the call supply of Egypt, won by Russia.This lower demand has relieved the stocks were under pressure and stepped down on the Chicago Board of Trade. Bushel of corn (about 25 kg) for December delivery was worth 6.4925 dollars Friday, a bushel of wheat and $ 6.43 soybean contract 12.69 dollars.
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September 26, 2011
The "outstanding contribution to the very high income" will not remain as is. Originally the government planned to implement from 2012 a new levy of 3% of the income exceeding EUR 500,000 per year and revenue per unit. It is this threshold in the draft budget law presented Wednesday. But Sunday, the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, said she was open to a compromise with legislators, who for several weeks argue for a lower threshold.
In fact, the government is prepared to accept that the tax is triggered from 250,000 euros per unit. The level advocated by the current UMP Presidents of the Assembly and Senate, Bernard Accoyer and Gérard Larcher. "This is a good level of understanding," they say in the entourage of Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur UMP budget to the Assembly. The draft budget law will be amended in October this.And review, the tax will yield € 300 million to the state, instead of 200 million. It will affect 15,000 to 20,000 homes in 5000 to 10,000 against the original.
Specifically, if the amendment passes, the contribution will trip from 250,000 euros in annual revenue for a single and EUR 500 000 for a couple. For now, it is expected that having a child or children shall not be entitled to any share in the calculation of the contribution.
Regular income concerned
Another difference with the Income Tax (IR): the contribution of 3% apply to "income tax reference." This "reference taxable income" includes wages, but also dividends, interest, capital gains and estate securities short, capital income. "This makes the contribution on very high incomes more effective than the creation of an additional 45% of IR.Indeed, the IR is such that capital income would escape taxation at 45% and would remain taxed at 19%, "said Gilles Carrez.
The government hoped that only households with high incomes are regularly taxed. This is to prevent a dealer who sells one year his business pays the contribution. For this, the income taken into account for the outbreak of the tax will be calculated as an average over three years. This will be discussed, Gilles Carrez wanting only the capital gains are smoothed over three years. The contribution should go out when the deficit below 3% rise in GDP, that is to say in 2014. But many outstanding taxes have been made permanent …
September 23, 2011
After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.
But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.
"Target needed '
Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years installment payday loans…
In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.
These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.
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September 22, 2011
It's a real bolt from the French audiovisual landscape. Wednesday morning the competition authority has simply removed the authority granted to Canal + in 2006 to buy its rival TPS. Result, Canal + and its parent Vivendi will re-notify their proposed acquisition of TPS before the competition authority in a one-month periods. In addition, the authority sanctioning Canal + up to 30 million euros.
The reason for this? The Competition Authority considers that Canal + has not complied with several of the 59 commitments made during this operation.These commitments were supposed to ensure that the encrypted string abuses its dominant position in pay TV.
Among the reasons for this heavy penalty, the Competition Authority Canal + accuses of not having available to third party distributors (telecom operators and their channel packages on ADSL) in a timely manner the seven channels mentioned in the commitments. Worse, the Canal + group would deliberately degraded the quality of TPS Star, the only pay channel capable of competing with its own channel Canal +. Finally, the group led by Bertrand Meheut failed to comply with certain commitments regarding relationships with independent channels business cards.Clearly, it takes advantage of its dominant position to impose commercial conditions "opaque and potentially discriminatory"
Gendarme Competition
All of these unfulfilled commitments had been badly negotiated in 2006, on the redemption of GST. Telecom operators, Orange had in mind battled against Canal +. The competition authority had imposed severe conditions, but Canal +, no one has apparently ignored it.
With this decision, the Competition Authority comes on strong. She returns to the operation which allowed Canal + to eliminate competition in the market for pay television. Above all, the competition watchdog the fact at a time when Canal + ready to leverage its position in pay television to attack the free TV market with the acquisition of Direct 8 Direct and Star.
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September 21, 2011
Not surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards its growth forecast for the global economy to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April. "4% may seem not too bad, but the recovery is very unbalanced: in 2011 we see a 6.4% growth for emerging countries, but only 1.6% for advanced economies," said Olivier Tuesday Blanchard, IMF chief economist, introducing the new World Economic Outlook (WEO).
That is not this shift, now usual between the North and South, which most worries economists in Washington. "The risks are clearly downward," acknowledged Olivier Blanchard.Referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades, he admits that there is now a risk of recession with a probability of 38% in the U.S. and 17% to 18% in the United Kingdom and France, if one believes the econometric calculations.
For its part, the IMF has produced an alternative scenario combining three ingredients, "the uncontrolled financial turmoil in the euro area, combined with a deteriorating growth outlook for the medium term in the United States and a financial backlash on the real estate sector in emerging Asia. " Given the limited room for maneuver of monetary and fiscal advanced countries, the United States and the euro area might then go into recession, with activity levels less than 3% in 2012 to what is seen in the baseline scenario of WEO.Japan is not free, losing 1.5% growth compared to the central projections, or even emerging Asia, which would end 2 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% lower than expected.
If the IMF raised the specter of recession it is best to exorcise it. And governments to launch "a fervent call to action". "The leaders (politicians) are set back one step on the evolution of markets," said the economist of the IMF. "Europe can not provide the luxury of waiting three or four months to implement the plan of July 21 and in particular the reform of the European financial stability."
Accordance with his duties as conductor of globalization, the IMF presented a roadmap in three points. "The first fiscal policy. Consolidation can not be too fast because it would kill growth. It can not be too slow because it would undermine its credibility. "Olivier Blanchard and insist that the tempo has to be adapted to each country. It also considers that there are three ways to support domestic demand in the country with low interest rates, the ability of banks to distribute loans and solutions to real estate (in the U.S. ).
The second is financial. The IMF again sang the anthem of the recapitalization of banks. "For a number of banks, especially in Europe, this requires the contribution of new capital, preferably private and public sources if necessary."
Third field of action, "the international rebalancing." In this regard the ball is in the court of Asia, which should replace the U.S. consumer as the engine of global growth. "Even if this can not happen overnight," conceded Olivier Blanchard.
September 19, 2011
From our correspondent in Berlin.
The green wave that swept across the Rhine after the disaster atomic Fukushima is a capitulation to the first industry group. The German industrial giant Siemens has given up on Sunday at his activity in the nuclear dead end since it considers the abandonment of the atom civilian in Germany. While Berlin has decided to close the seventeen German nuclear power plants by 2020, Siemens decided to enroll in the federal government's strategy and to strengthen further in the field of renewable energy.
"Chapter nuclear ended for us," said Peter Löscher, CEO of Munich, the weekly Der Spiegel. "We are more involved in the total management of the construction of nuclear power plants or in their financing.In the future, we will continue to deliver conventional parts, such as steam turbines (…), found also in the central gas or coal, "he said.
After the emotion aroused in Germany by the catastrophe of Fukushima, the German government decided in March to immediately stop the older reactors and then condemn others by 2022. "That changed things for us," acknowledged Löscher. Prudent, he was one of the few in Germany in 2010 not to sign an open letter from the heavyweights of the German economy demand a longer duration of use of nuclear power plants. Löscher called a "project of the century" turn energy taken by Germany. And he considers attainable goal to move to a 35% share of renewables in the "mix" German in 2020.Siemens, diverse group in the transport, household appliances or medicine, is already a world-class champion in wind energy.
The decision seems even more logical that Siemens has never been lucky in nuclear energy. In 2009, the Munich group was forced to announce his break with the French nuclear group Areva and sell its stake, amounting to 34% of shares in the subsidiary Areva NP reactor. Sued for breach of its contractual obligations, Siemens was ordered to pay 648 million euros of interest to Areva.Unable to further develop this cooperation because of political opposition on the part of France, Siemens had preferred to turn to Russia and had begun discussions with Rosatom in March 2009, in a context of international nuclear renaissance.
Bill up 10%
Sunday, Löscher also bury the proposed joint venture with the Russian public group in the Rosatom nuclear. "Both groups are still very interested in a partnership. But it will focus on another area, "he added.
The abandonment of the German nuclear announced dealt a severe blow to major energy companies across the Rhine. While their foreign competitors reaping profits, E. ON and RWE, the two main operators of nuclear power, have announced plans for cost savings and layoffs.Germany is now reduced to importing nuclear energy produced under safe conditions, in neighboring Czech Republic. Result: the energy bill has increased by 10% in a few months.
September 18, 2011
From our special correspondent in Wroclaw.
The Europeans hoped "a dialogue between friends," the Americans had "no arrogance." Las. With the destabilization of markets and growing concern on both sides of the Atlantic, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, could not resist lecturing his seventeen counterparts in the euro area gathered Friday to Wroclaw (Poland).
The relief provided by five central banks – including the U.S. Fed – banks in the euro area will not long concealed the absence of concerted policy response to the crisis. On behalf of the Europeans, the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker declined projects Tim Geithner, citing "differences in approach with our American colleagues."Treasury Secretary, he has put his finger where the euro hurts: he publicly expressed concern "of the conflict between governments and the European Central Bank," a week after the sensational resignation of the Chief Economist of the ECB .
Barack Obama's America, soon launched a presidential campaign, fearing a collapse of Greece, a contagion to European banks and a possible fracture of the euro area. If the crisis deepens, it is the U.S. economy would suffer the backlash, shock reverse of that which had hit Europe after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The first message in Washing-ton is to push the Europeans to speak with one voice and act decisively. "Governments and the Central Bank should work together (…) to avoid catastrophic risks for financial markets," said Treasury Secretary.And he insists, denouncing the cacophony that destabilizes the common currency: "Everyone should also abstain from loose talk about the end of the euro area." Targeted: the proponents of expulsion from Greece …
Denial of a tax on financial transactions
The unprecedented invitation launched by Poland – host country because currently presiding the EU – Timothy Geithner had anything to embarrass, in turmoil, the finance ministers of the euro. We saw Baroin host the head of U.S. Treasury of a strong handshake in Wroclaw. But the Euro has carefully kept at a distance. He has not formally participated in the circle, but a "preliminary conversation" about an hour. Contrary to custom, he did not sent to journalists.To tell his truths to Europe, he preferred an audience of bankers in another part of town.
Some did not take gloves to say that Europe has no lessons to learn. The United States, collapsing under the deficits should put their own house, says the Belgian Didier Reynders. "America has nothing to dictate when the person refuses flatly our suggestions," added the Austrian Maria Fekter. It is true that Tim Geithner repeated Friday his opposition front to the tax on financial transactions carried to Paris, Berlin and Brussels.
Decisions deferred
For the second time in eight days, Treasury Secretary left Europe empty-handed. Friday, the Europeans have made a face at her suggestion to "leverage" means the EFSF, the bailout fund for countries of the euro in difficulty."This is not a subject that is discussed with a country outside the EU," Jean-Claude Juncker meant. Same end of inadmissibility of the American idea of supporting the growth of public funds "even a donkey does not stumble twice on the same stone, 'says Didier Reynders, convinced of the urgency to fight first against the deficits.
For the Americans as to Europeans, the European event in Wroclaw ends with a disturbing sense of incompleteness, even for emergencies. The Eurogroup has pushed to mid-October a decision on payment of 8 billion euros to Greece. He did not reach an agreement on guarantees that Finland requires Greece.
September 16, 2011
Lefigaro.fr – Can we say that Kweku Adoboli is "the new Kerviel"?
Frederic Boulier – It is true that there are many similarities with the Kerviel affair. The amounts are lost in the same order of magnitude. Jerome Kerviel lost 4.9 billion euros at Societe Generale, but before the "unwinding" of his positions, the loss amounted to 1.5 billion euros. In addition, two young traders of thirty years who do not leave the harem and who have a priori not studied mathematics attacks.If such solutions were introduced to Jérôme Kerviel, the fraud was detected nine months in advance.
The laxity of financial institutions will he accelerate the reform of British banking system?
I do not see because the British government stand by to this new fraud. Today, a single trader can place a financial institution to its knees if there is not an effective risk control upstream. It should probably expect the introduction of special measures to strengthen the role of authorities to monitor the control of financial institutions.Since the Kerviel affair and the "subprime" mistrust vis-à-vis banks is clearly went crescendo.
Why banks have not they learned from the Kerviel affair?
It is difficult to generalize and say that the lessons of the Kerviel affair were not included. This is not the financial system is to question, even if it is true that there are likely other fraud of this magnitude. Moreover, according to statistics, there are all two or three years. We can not avoid all financial frauds. However, one can detect some with software solutions that I advanced earlier and limit losses to a few million or tens of millions of euros.
Is it the fabulous bonuses which encourage traders to take risks as important?
It is true that greed can push market participants to take some unnecessary risks. But in 99% of cases of fraud, be aware there is no direct personal gain. Traders are sometimes victims of runaway losses due to the desire to "chasing" in the jargon of traders.
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September 16, 2011
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