IMF: the euro area lags behind the recovery

The weather global economic summarized in three figures: production (GDP) will grow 10% this year in China, 3.1% in the U.S. and 1% in the euro area countries. For the whole world, growth is expected in 2010 to 4.2% and 4.3% in 2011. With a clear dividing line between the advanced countries, whose growth prospects are around 2.3%, while savings "emerging and developing" a galloping pace of 6.3%.

These new "World Economic Outlook," IMF showed that "the recovery unfolds better than expected. But new challenges have emerged and exceptional "cautioned Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the Fund. He calls a "warm" restart in the advanced countries, which are still found a lower level of production of 7% it would have without the crisis.In the eurozone, the IMF also revised downwards by 0.1 percentage point to 1% its forecast for growth in 2010, although France, among others, has fared rather better with a forecast of 1.5% instead of 1.4%.

Dependence credit

For Europeans to wonder why their economies pull themselves together much more slowly than America, Olivier Blanchard gives two main explanations. Europe is "more dependent on bank credit as the U.S. market where finance plays a greater role for business and they have restarted the fittest." Furthermore "the policy responses have been later and less strong in Europe," he adds.

This means that the IMF does not disavow the fiscal stimulus packages, including Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the boss, was one of the strongest supporters, from January 2008 fast cash advance. But "it is urgent to develop strategies for fiscal consolidation in the medium term" now stress the same experts. They note that the budget deficits in advanced countries have now reached 9% of GDP on average and that "the debt / GDP ratio should exceed 100% by 2014 if nothing is done.

Rebalancing Economic Policy

The situation is more delicate than a too abrupt adjustment of public finances could hinder growth already shaky.Hence the advice to double trigger "to fully implement fiscal stimulus measures planned for 2010, except in countries which already have a strong increase in their risk premium and must begin to rebalance their budgets now," as Greece. But the most advanced countries should undertake a substantial fiscal consolidation in 2011.

Emerging economies are the reverse face "to an influx of capital, a good thing in itself, but can become excessive," warns Olivier Blanchard. He recovered one of his favorite anthems "the currencies of a number of emerging markets remain undervalued in considerable proportions regarding the yuan." It calls for a revaluation of the currency, both in relation to the dollar than the euro, the only way to give oxygen to Western exports and ease the risk of overheating in Asia.This rebalancing of economic policies will be central to discussions of the G20, whose finance ministers meet Friday in Washington.

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