Economists fear a new recession

"If we do not change policy, we will in the wall." Jacques Attali, President of PlanetFinance and author of a book entitled "All ruined in ten years? Public debt: the last chance "does not beat around the bush. After a week when financial markets are worried about the emergence of a new recession, former adviser to Francois Mitterrand and confirms that the government must halt the rise in public debt. And for this, a policy of austerity. "We're on the brink of a global deflation as it has ever seen for a century and a half," he said.

In alarm that has not failed to react as President of the European Central Bank (ECB). "I do not think the risk of a recession.Globally, it is clear that we are in a recovery phase, confirmed particularly in the emerging world, but also in the industrialized world, "said Jean-Claude Trichet. That did not stop to be careful. "Growth is not written in the industrialized world, it depends on the ability of countries to strengthen the confidence of households, firms and enterprises," he says.

Grand European loan

Europe is not doomed to stagnation. According to economists, big bosses and politicians gathered in Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum for the Old Continent has to reform, reduce deficits and build on innovation. "Without policy change, the growth potential of Europe for the next ten years will be around 1.3% to 1.5% per year.We would then take years to regain the levels of unemployment pre-crisis, "says economist Christian de Boissieu.

For this, the Circle of economists in favor of a large loan eueuropéen, referring to the one established last year by Nicolas Sarkozy. The idea is, like its sister French, invest in innovation, green technology or education. "Innovation and services are crucial. The deindustrialization of the United States had no areas of very high technology, because they have attracted the intelligence world, "says Louis Welsh, president of EADS.

"Place of Culture and Tourism

The question is how to articulate these priorities, fiscal consolidation and sustaining growth -. Hence the idea of an overhaul of EU policies.In short, Europe must "change the growth model," according to former Prime Minister Alain Juppe. "The EU lacks coherence between its short and medium term focus on reducing deficits, and the long term that seeks to promote investment in the knowledge economy," says economist Agnes Benassy-Quere.

Far from being able to display growth rates comparable to those of emerging countries, Europe has every interest to agree on next steps. Otherwise it will be reduced to "a place of culture and tourism," says Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, President of Circle of economists.

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