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"One might think that more French people remained in the Hexagon this summer, which took the train," says David Azema, the Chief Operating Officer of SNCF responsible for the strategy. Between July and September, sales of the travel industry group, which includes the TGV and international routes operated by joint ventures (Thalys, Lyria …) jumped 8.7% in the summer of 2010. Since the beginning of the year, its sales rose 7.1% to 24.19 billion euros, up 5.2% at constant scope and exchange rates.Sales since the beginning of the year is progressing in all areas.
Near the branch, which includes regional trains and also houses Keolis, a subsidiary of public transport, has become the main contributor to the SNCF group with a turnover of over $ 9 billion over nine months, up 6.5% compared to last year. "Proximity" of benefits including state aid to bail out the trains balance of the territory (TET), these unprofitable lines that the state has agreed a year ago to subsidize.
"We are doing better in all branches thanks to the improvement of agreements signed with Réseau Ferré de France, for which the branch Infra work more profitable, but also with the state as part of the TET, said David Azema. Because trains balance of the territory we had last year a loss of 210 million euros.This year, we charge the revenues of the State by this convention. "
A flat on the side of freight transport
However, a shadow appears on the side of freight transport. If SNCF Geodis displays a nine-month increase of 3.8% of its turnover, the logistics sector was down 1.1% in the last quarter. "The activity of Transportation Commission, which worked very well, has declined by 8.7% during the last quarter which is a measure of slower traffic flows between Asia and Europe," says David Azema.
This performance should enable the group to achieve its margin, its leaders do not want to reveal.
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Barely recovered from the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 in Japan, car makers now face the wrath and flooding currently affecting Thailand and have already killed at least 300 people and damaged 10% of rice fields in the country. "It's like the tsunami in Japan who also had an impact on plants in Thailand because of shortage of spare parts," warns Payungsak Chartsutthipol, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, fearing the "massive losses" for an industry that will "several months to recover."
Regional Centre for the automotive industry with nearly 2 million units per year over the Su-East Asia, the Kingdom is home to the factories of Toyota, Ford or Honda. These floods are a blow to companies that relied on plants abroad to recover their losses in Japan.Toyota has already announced that it extended until 22 October to suspend its activities in Thailand. "The Japanese drama have exhausted by forcing them to close their factories for two months. And now, flooding slow down production in Thailand, "says Hans Greimel, Asia editor of Automotive News.
An estimated cost of 3.5 billion euros
High technology are not spared. American groups Seagate Technology and Western Digital have warned that their production would be affected hard drives. Chipmakers and électroniquesON Semiconductor Microsemi have suspended them.Finally, the Japanese electronics giant, Nikon, arrested one of its States, and its competitor Canon has transferred the production of inkjet printers to a site in Vietnam payday advance lenders.
More than the car – which represents 11% of GDP in Thailand – and electronics, the whole economy that is fragile. The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated the total cost of flooding to about 150 billion baht (3.5 billion), or between 1.3% and 1.5% of GDP in with agriculture, tourism and trade. "If Bangkok is flooded again, the losses will be even greater," warns Thanawat Polwichai, head of the forecast center at the university. According to the President of the Federation of Thai Industries, Sing Tangcharoenchaichana, quoted by the Bangkokpost, a local newspaper, the damage could even reach 190 billion baht (4.4 billion).He said the financial cost could even double if the floods continued for another two months or more. In comparison, the Japanese government had estimated the financial impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to 147 million euros.
Even if the authorities is confident in their ability to protect the megalopolis of 12 million, the Central Bank should lower its growth forecast for 2011, currently 4.1%. "The experience in Japan of a fairly rapid recovery of production after the tsunami of March offers hope, but the experience in Thailand may be less happy, say consultants IHS Global Insight. Not only the affected area is much larger, but many areas suffer the consequences. "
Febrile atmosphere around Dexia announced the dismantling of which is to organize. On Thursday afternoon, the rating on the stock exchange was suspended at the request of the Belgian regulator: the action was losing more than 17% amid rumors that many French-Belgian bank was forced each time to confirm or to reverse. It will again be listed on Monday.
Dexia has confirmed to be entered into exclusive negotiations "with a group of international investors that the government of Luxembourg will attend" to sell its subsidiary private bank, the BIL (Banque Internationale à Luxembourg). This discussion has actually been mainly engaged with the sovereign fund of Qatar, several sources indicate.The Luxembourg Finance Minister, Luc Frieden, for his part, justified the participation of the Grand Duchy as a "minority shareholder" in the name of "systemic" to his country of BIL's 12 billion euros of deposits and forty traditional bank branches.
The first assignment could be raised on Saturday by the Board of Directors of Dexia, intended, according to a close case, to "calibrate the overall strategy of the division of Dexia."
This strategy is already known in outline. This is to sell every major business or large branch. Dexia will gradually emptied of its substance and its assets down to the most difficult to sell, mainly the bond portfolio of 95 billion euros and a life of thirteen years.The State guarantee French and Belgian finance Dexia and ultimately apply to "cantonment" low interest rate personal loans.
On this basis, negotiations, under pressure from the markets and financial authorities who fear a confusion between the case of Dexia and the rest of the European banking sector are extremely complex: in addition to buyers interested in a particular asset, discussion involving the management of Dexia, its shareholders and the Belgian side the French side, and the states.
Mutual distrust
However, the pattern holds only insofar as the current shareholders of Dexia are collectively responsible. The centrifugal forces exerted, especially in Belgium, must be curbed. Thursday, pushing the Belgian regions, according to local press, a scheme of demerger of the retail DBB (Dexia Bank Belgium).
Seen from France, the idea goes wrong, since the ultimate goal of the operation is that the sale of assets – DBB is a price – reported enough money to build the hive and absorb as much as possible losses that would otherwise eventually be collected by the states.
The mistrust is mutual. On the Belgian side, Prime Minister Yves Leterme has hammered yesterday that his country did not intend to be alone with Dexia on the arms. "We must continue to fund all the past, and we will not do it alone," said the Finance Minister Didier Reynders. On this side of the border, negotiations continue on the transfer of the portfolio and lending activities to local authorities in the Deposit and La Banque Postale.
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The Paris Bourse could put a brake on the increase Friday. The CAC 40, which had ended on a sharp rise yesterday, could suffer from poor market sentiment in Asia this morning, themselves unconvinced by the mixed session on Wall Street.
The Greek case should again focus attention of the operators. Friday in Paris, Nicolas Sarkozy meets Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou to 17 hours to take stock of the crisis in the country. "After meeting with Mr. Papandreou, have the opportunity to say exactly what is our strategy regarding the support that we need a European country like Greece," said the head of the French government yesterday during a trip to Morocco.
The meeting came a day after the German parliament ahead of the rescue plan of the euro. Despite this vote, caution remains the watchword.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said wait for the results of the audit conducted by the troika of the country's creditors to determine whether or not to renegotiate the terms of the second international aid plan decided on July 21 in Brussels by the euro area . Troika has also resumed in Athens yesterday.
Busy schedule
In terms of macroeconomic announcements, the end of third quarter results in a responsible news for investors. In France, prices are expected in the production and consumption in August. Retail sales in Germany in August and the index of consumer prices in September are waiting for you. In the eurozone, the unemployment rate last month will be announced free business cards.
In the U.S., the ball will start with the incomes and spending. It will continue with the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment index.
Mixed statistics were also published in China and Japan this morning.
As for currencies, the euro is still lagging behind against the dollar. The single currency is worth 1.3553 dollars in trade mantinaux. Side oil, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November gained 53 cents to 82.67 dollars in early electronic trading. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery took 28 cents to 104.23 dollars.
Values to follow
• Axa
The Strategic Investment Fund said Thursday he would not consider an acquisition of Axa Private Equity, the private equity subsidiary of the French insurer has to sell. The Financial Times and the Tribune believe that the offers for Axa Privaty Equity, private equity branch of Axa, must be filed by early next week.
• France Telecom
Orange should have exclusivity on the sale of new phone Sharp Aquos smartphone Android Phone SH80F compatible 3D. It should be available from October 6 at Orange from 199 euros with a subscription, according to specialized sites.
• Soitec
In a statement Friday, the group confirms that the sequential growth of wafer sales in the first half of 2011-2012 compared to the second half of last year will be in line with its forecast of 20% at constant exchange rates.
After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.
But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.
"Target needed '
Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years installment payday loans…
In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.
These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.
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It's a real bolt from the French audiovisual landscape. Wednesday morning the competition authority has simply removed the authority granted to Canal + in 2006 to buy its rival TPS. Result, Canal + and its parent Vivendi will re-notify their proposed acquisition of TPS before the competition authority in a one-month periods. In addition, the authority sanctioning Canal + up to 30 million euros.
The reason for this? The Competition Authority considers that Canal + has not complied with several of the 59 commitments made during this operation.These commitments were supposed to ensure that the encrypted string abuses its dominant position in pay TV.
Among the reasons for this heavy penalty, the Competition Authority Canal + accuses of not having available to third party distributors (telecom operators and their channel packages on ADSL) in a timely manner the seven channels mentioned in the commitments. Worse, the Canal + group would deliberately degraded the quality of TPS Star, the only pay channel capable of competing with its own channel Canal +. Finally, the group led by Bertrand Meheut failed to comply with certain commitments regarding relationships with independent channels business cards.Clearly, it takes advantage of its dominant position to impose commercial conditions "opaque and potentially discriminatory"
Gendarme Competition
All of these unfulfilled commitments had been badly negotiated in 2006, on the redemption of GST. Telecom operators, Orange had in mind battled against Canal +. The competition authority had imposed severe conditions, but Canal +, no one has apparently ignored it.
With this decision, the Competition Authority comes on strong. She returns to the operation which allowed Canal + to eliminate competition in the market for pay television. Above all, the competition watchdog the fact at a time when Canal + ready to leverage its position in pay television to attack the free TV market with the acquisition of Direct 8 Direct and Star.
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Not surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund has revised downwards its growth forecast for the global economy to 4% for both 2011 and for 2012, 0.5 points less than the 4.5% announced in April. "4% may seem not too bad, but the recovery is very unbalanced: in 2011 we see a 6.4% growth for emerging countries, but only 1.6% for advanced economies," said Olivier Tuesday Blanchard, IMF chief economist, introducing the new World Economic Outlook (WEO).
That is not this shift, now usual between the North and South, which most worries economists in Washington. "The risks are clearly downward," acknowledged Olivier Blanchard.Referring to the previous stock market declines in recent decades, he admits that there is now a risk of recession with a probability of 38% in the U.S. and 17% to 18% in the United Kingdom and France, if one believes the econometric calculations.
For its part, the IMF has produced an alternative scenario combining three ingredients, "the uncontrolled financial turmoil in the euro area, combined with a deteriorating growth outlook for the medium term in the United States and a financial backlash on the real estate sector in emerging Asia. " Given the limited room for maneuver of monetary and fiscal advanced countries, the United States and the euro area might then go into recession, with activity levels less than 3% in 2012 to what is seen in the baseline scenario of WEO.Japan is not free, losing 1.5% growth compared to the central projections, or even emerging Asia, which would end 2 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% lower than expected.
If the IMF raised the specter of recession it is best to exorcise it. And governments to launch "a fervent call to action". "The leaders (politicians) are set back one step on the evolution of markets," said the economist of the IMF. "Europe can not provide the luxury of waiting three or four months to implement the plan of July 21 and in particular the reform of the European financial stability."
Accordance with his duties as conductor of globalization, the IMF presented a roadmap in three points. "The first fiscal policy. Consolidation can not be too fast because it would kill growth. It can not be too slow because it would undermine its credibility. "Olivier Blanchard and insist that the tempo has to be adapted to each country. It also considers that there are three ways to support domestic demand in the country with low interest rates, the ability of banks to distribute loans and solutions to real estate (in the U.S. ).
The second is financial. The IMF again sang the anthem of the recapitalization of banks. "For a number of banks, especially in Europe, this requires the contribution of new capital, preferably private and public sources if necessary."
Third field of action, "the international rebalancing." In this regard the ball is in the court of Asia, which should replace the U.S. consumer as the engine of global growth. "Even if this can not happen overnight," conceded Olivier Blanchard.
Site managers have the smile of memory. While attendance at places recalling the two world wars is rising, the events will be even more gratifying. In 2014 will indeed be celebrating the centenary of the beginning of the First World War. A great event that is expected to attract many visitors, French and foreign.
A study Trump France on the economic weight of this sector, 56% of managers has provided for very short-term investments to enlarge the reception area, improve the scenery of the place, upgrading showrooms or implement new services such as mobile applications.At the Douaumont ossuary, in Lorraine, where a cemetery pays tribute to fallen victims of the Battle of Verdun, the projects are already defined: "We expect the complete renovation of the monument which will be subsidized by the state, region and department. New exhibits will also be installed, "said one official.
The Museum of the Great War in Peronne, efforts will focus on the renovation media: "we will launch the iPhone and Android affecting up to visitors. They will be more useful in 2014 when more people will be equipped smartphones, "said Karine Loison, Cultural Attaché of the museum. "These are important tools to enhance exhibitions, highlighting items that we keep in reserve, which allows video recording, interactive courses for children," she adds.Other changes to the program, including signage and the replacement of audio-guides "a little tired," will be detailed to the public on the museum site in September. "We must prepare for this year 2014 will be very important," said Karine Loison.
"Hang the young"
More massive investments will even give rise to new infrastructure. Among the flagship projects include the opening and in the country of Meaux (Seine-et-Marne) Museum of the Great War of 7000 square meters, which will use the latest technology no teletrek payday advance. It was inaugurated on 11 November. "It's both a museum of history and society, to help understand the contemporary world," said the mayor of Meaux, Jean-Francois Cope, at the First Assembly of remembrance tourism held in Senate in May
"It should also be noted that France has the remains important in its territory that must develop, enhance," says Joseph Zimet, deputy director of the memory of the heritage and archives of the Ministry of Defence, which states that scarcity of witnesses is also one of the reasons why managers to invest to preserve the memory of these places. The longer term objective is clear: "hang the younger generation" a duty to remember. "The 100th anniversary will take place in the heart of the miracle of peace in Europe, to be put forward," said Daniel Percheron, President of the Regional Council of Nord / Pas-de-Calais, which emphasizes "the universal dimension" of the event.
Meanwhile, the management of memory and heritage archives of the Ministry of Defence hopes to establish a tourism observatory memory and perpetuate the appointment of foundation organized around its players. The next will be held in Lille in 2013.
SEE:
"The site interdepartmental www.cheminsdememoire.gouv.fr, which lists all the important memorial sites in France.
"The video presentation produced by the Ministry of Defence and projected opening of the Assembly of Tourism Memory:
On the paths of Memory: MEMORY FOUNDATIONS OF TOURISM davbon99 from on Vimeo.
Low growth, but at all levels. The Bouygues group announced Wednesday an increase in sales of 4% in first half (1% at constant exchange rates) to 15.2 billion euros and a net profit of 391 million euros, withdrawal of 27% over the same period the previous year. The net result appears, in turn to an increase of 6% to 752 million euros, the group said in a statement. The debt ratio of the group remains unchanged from the end of June 2010 from 43% to 42%.
As for the 2011 second quarter results, they are also an improvement over the second quarter of 2010. Revenues rose 4%, with an increase in trading profit of 11% and net income of 2%. For its first quarter 2011, Bouygues had reported a turnover of 6.686 billion euros (up 4%), and net income of 34 million euros.
The positive interim results allow Bouygues to revise upwards the target of revenue, it is revised upward to 32 billion euros.
Good activity for all occupations, despite Alstom
All trades of the Bouygues group showed a good business in the first half. Construction Bougues renewed growth and recorded a turnover of 4.7 billion euros, up 4% (+5% in France, 2% internationally), with net income which amounted to 94 million euros (+6%). The order book of the subsidiary recorded a record 15.5 billion euros, up 12% compared to June 30, 2010 and includes the project Balard, up to 1 billion euros.
TF1 realizes a turnover almost stable at 1 no teletrack payday loans.278 billion euros, confirming its ability to control costs and adapt its business model.The group's net profit stood at 119 million euros (61%).
As the group announced, following a first quarter strongly affected by non-recurring expenses, the financial contribution to Alstom was down sharply, with net income of 94 million euros in the first half of 2011 ( 216 million euros in the first half of 2010). However, in line with the second half of 2010/2011, Alstom has experienced strong growth in orders in the first quarter 2011/2012 and confirmed its operating margin target of between 7% and 8% for the year 2011/2012.
Issuer bid of 1.25 billion euro
To address the recent decline in its stock price (-27% since June 1), Bouygues said on Wednesday a draft tender offer in its own shares for total of 1.25 billion euros.This offer is for a maximum of 11.7% stake in the company at a price of 30 euros per share, representing a 30% premium on the closing price on August 30 and a premium of 29% on average months. The repurchased shares will be canceled, the company said in a statement released Wednesday.
The transaction will be submitted for approval at the extraordinary general meeting to be convened on October 10. For information, the offer would be open from 11 to 31 October 2011.
This morning, the rating agency Moody's affirmed the A3 rating of the group, with a stable outlook.
In Berlin
Leading economic powers of the continent, Germany continues to print a rapid pace in the consolidation of public accounts. The Federal Ministry of Finance has fixed Monday downward its forecast deficit for fiscal 2011, reducing it to 1.5% of GDP, against 2.5% so far.
With seven consecutive months of increases, tax revenues fueled by favorable economic conditions help to clear the accounts. Despite the crisis of the euro and the slowdown brutal (0.1%) of growth in the second quarter, Germany displays unique performance in Europe. It is even "a balanced budget in 2014," according to the monthly report of the Ministry of Finance.
As good news never comes alone, the Bundesbank has maintained its growth forecast for the year, around 3%, despite the uncertainties on the global economy.Uncertainties also swept by the Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who sees "no signs of recession on the horizon" and "no cause for concern," despite the decline in exports and domestic consumption, traditional 'heel Achilles of the economy across the Rhine. With these results, which provide water to his mill, Germany does not want to break the pattern that ensures its development. With even greater risk of stuck behind its partners in the crisis and strengthen the idea of a Euro at two speeds. The Eurobonds are still seen in Berlin as a bad idea. Such obligations could put a strain on public accounts and stopping growth. Estimates vary, but the most pessimistic estimate that the pooling of risk could cost 25 billion per year budget.Half the projected deficit for this year.
Meet Baroin
In its traditional large back-up interview on public television, Chancellor Merkel called Eurobonds "wrong answer to the crisis." And showed its determination in the battle with speculators, "The markets want to force us to do things that we do not want to. Policies can not and should not run behind the markets. "The only Conservative leader weight to leave the door open to this option is Wolfgang Schäuble. However, it is satisfied that it is necessary first to establish a common budgetary and fiscal policy. He will discuss this and a tax on financial transactions at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday morning in Paris with his French counterpart, Francois Baroin.The two men were responsible for making joint Franco-German proposals on these two subjects in the fall.
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