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"The European economic recovery was interrupted." The verdict of the European Commission, which presented on Thursday its autumn forecasts for 2011-2013, is categorical. According to Brussels, all signals of the economy are red. "The sharp drop in confidence hinders investment and consumption, while the slowdown in global growth reduces export and fiscal consolidation to operate emergency weigh on domestic demand." Accordingly, the Institution provides a low growth for the EU in 2012, about 0.6% against 1.9% forecast last spring. In the euro area, GDP is expected to show a slight increase of 0.5%.
The return to growth, albeit slow, is scheduled for 2013 (1.3% in euro area and 1.5% in the EU). Unless additional shock …
Italy does approach the point of no return? Some finance ministers could not help looking up to heaven on Tuesday, after a new camera in Brussels, while two indicators concern for the future of the single currency were turning to red: the level interventions of the ECB to calm the markets and the cost at which borrows the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), which constitutes the first line of defense if Italy were to switch after Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
The ministers of the euro seems to have learned anything from their Italian counterpart Giulio Tremonti, who came to Brussels to plead the cause of a Berlusconi government now condemned. "Markets drink the cup for a week, but Rome means the same song," laments a spokesman. Italy, in turn, "enters the vicious circle", continues a senior official.On another front to defend the euro, the EFSF has faced 104 basis points above the rate paid on its debt (3.59%) to place its 3 billion euros of bonds. The bailout fund retains its AAA, but it seems already sealed by the ball Italian. "The cordon sanitaire erected around Greece is showing signs of collapse, 'says a senior official.
Specter of a meltdown
The establishment of the famous "firewall", arrested Oct. 26 at the top of the euro, was precisely the issue of the appointment of the Eurogroup in Brussels. After the political decision, it remains to fill the coffers of the EFSF new way: European budgets are already in the grip and large foreign investors reluctant to buy its bonds in an atmosphere poisoned by the specter of a collapse in Italy.
Cuba is a small step towards a market economy. The island has in fact passed a law on the property that, for the first time, allow Cubans to buy or sell their homes according to market rules. The economic reform is the most ambitious ever attempted by the government of Raul Castro. It could have a significant impact both on the urbanization of cities as the class of the island, says the New York Times.
The new law should take effect on November 10 next, according to a newspaper controlled by the state. And while some details remain to be defined, the new device promises to revolutionize the current management of housing in Cuba. In fact, for the first time since the beginning of the revolution, the buyers and sellers of real estate will be allowed to freely establish prices.
The draft budget for 2012 Social Security will be voted on Wednesday by the House, before leaving the Senate. But a detailed examination of the text was to end Friday night. The Assembly amended several key points … until they know the consequences of the revision to 1% of projected growth. Lack of knowledge, "the dice are loaded," protested the Socialist Marisol Touraine. The rapporteur of the text, Yves Bur (UMP), was estimated at 1.5 billion shortfall, the government does not confirm.
Half a solution for excess fees
MEPs adopted an amendment to try to remedy the excess fees excessive. They left until the end of January to physicians, the social security and complementary health for themselves conclude this endless soap opera.Otherwise, the government will impose a solution.
It will offer surgeons, anesthetists and obstetricians to free prices (Area 2) to commit to cap the amount of their passing, 50% above the "tariff Safely." In addition, they shall not apply any overflow at least 30% of their actions. In exchange, Medicare will cover some of the social contributions of these volunteers. Patients, themselves, these exceedances will be reimbursed by the most complementary health – those who refuse their contracts will be taxed more.
But this scheme leaves the side of the road sector 1 physicians who have to comply with the Safely rates, including a thousand surgeons holders of certain diplomas, to whom greater pricing freedom is promised by the government since 2004. That's what unions denounce CSMF doctors and the Bloc.
While the automotive market is showing signs of slowing in Europe, and by recourse to partial unemployment as its competitor Renault, PSA Peugeot Citroen chooses the hard way. The automaker announced the establishment of an action plan of 800 million euros in cost savings for 2012. To justify this measure, the leading European regrets, under its third quarter, down 1.6% to 9.3 billion euros in sales in the automotive division, mainly because of "the intensifying price war "in France.
Referring to the weight of the wage bill in fixed costs, the group finance director Frederic Saint-Geours found Wednesday morning "quite likely" impact "on all the numbers," which amounted to 205,400 employees.Soon after, Philippe Varin, Chief Executive of the group, said that 10% of the European Non-dedicated to the production could be affected, or 5000 jobs in total. Knowing that in France, with 100,000 employees, temporary workers and subcontractors should be the only ones targeted by these measures he added. By late morning, PSA has already announced in the European group committee deletion of 800 temporary positions in France by the end of 2011, according to a union source quoted by AFP. In addition, Philippe Varin is scheduled to meet soon with Eric Besson, Minister of Industry.
Unions rebiffentLes unions were quick to react to this. These cuts staff have "something outrageous" Bruno Lemerle storm, CGT delegate to the committee of the European Group, deplored the "working conditions already overburdened."And adds: "The financial situation of the company is good [and] there is no reason to go to job losses." In fact, the total turnover of the group grew 3 no faxing payday loans.5% to 13.45 billion euros in the third quarter. It was worn by an increase of nearly 16% of sales of Faurecia, 7.1% of the Gefco and 6.2% of turnover by PSA Finance. The group, however, lowered its earnings forecast for 2011. On the occasion of the publication of its sales figures, the manufacturer announced it is now an operating profit of the car to balance this year when he banked before on a "clearly positive results," said Frederic Saint-Geours.
PSA made no secret of its intention to scale back on the old continent.In mid-September, Philippe Varin have already confided to Le Figaro "Identification of overstaffing," while the European market already slowing. France, Germany, Italy or Spain, the group seeks at once to "get in line" to increase its margins, said Philippe Varin. To do this, the group has initiated a comprehensive economic plan in 2009 (within which the measures of the day), to save 3.7 billion euros in all, drawing on purchases and fixed costs .
Emerging countries in their sights
Meanwhile, the manufacturer seeks to "globalize" more to take better advantage of growth drivers that are "Asia, Russia and Latin America."The group has announced on Wednesday an investment of 200 to 250 million euros a year over the period 2012-2015 in order to double its production capacity in Brazil.
Nevertheless, PSA
After these social ads, the automaker was operating under the sharply higher in late morning, gaining 2.55% to 17.50 euros.
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Private labels (PLs) are back in force in the carts of French consumers. Since early 2010, the agribusiness giant had managed to contain their breakthrough, and the best manufacturers regained market share. "But since June, private labels are gaining market share from national brands, said Jacques Dupre, director at Insight SymphonyIRI. This trend coincides with the rise in inflation. "
Earlier this year, the MDD had continued to lose market share (down 0.4 points from January to May). But the trend has reversed this summer. From June to September, the MDD show an increase of 0.4 percentage points, according to SymphonyIRI. This growth could reach 0.5 points throughout the second half.It concerns mainly the heart of the range and not the premium private label, or, more surprisingly, the first price ranges.
Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.
After rising steadily since their inception in the 1970s, sales of private label had marked a halt for nearly two years, even though the distributors did not cease to give them more room on their shelves. In 2010, domestic brands have responded. With a lot of innovations, promotions, advertising campaigns and price cuts, Danone, Nestle, Coca-Cola and Unilever have then taken the field. So, while Leclerc marks usually represent 35% of sales of the brand, this share fell below 30% during the past year.National brands benefited, at the time of price stability, conducive to buying, and saturation of consumers to the overrepresentation of MDD in radii.
But since the spring, the price increase, following the surge in raw materials, has changed all that. Carrefour to pass on increases in the month of March, after the conclusion of negotiations with suppliers. Other retailers have waited until June Between January and May, the rise in prices has been limited to 1 payday loan.3%. But between June and September, it reached 3.5%.
Descent line
As a result, the constraints of purchasing power of the French took over the top, recalling – to a lesser extent – the situation in 2008.At the time, in a crisis of raw materials, private labels have gained two points of market share, while the level of inflation was nearly 5%.
Household expenditures have dropped from the month of May, before returning in August. "The French have entered a period of rigor in their daily consumption, Jacques Dupré analysis. They limit their spending on products they do not deem necessary and buy fewer products pleasure as confectionery and ready meals. "
Rather than give up certain purchases, more and more consumers prefer to go further upmarket. The shopping basket of many homes has changed significantly in recent months.
This type of buying behavior explains why the MDD leave as soon as the product categories most inflationary, such as coffee, flour or oil.Flour to the radius, where prices rose 10.6% from June to September, their market share rose 3.4 points. This increase reached 5.7 points for milk. Addicted to coffee, whose prices rose 18.5% year on year (to September), have not so far decided not to. They are likely to have delayed their spending to private label which gained nearly a point of market share (June-September). Even if the prices of private labels grew faster than those of manufacturers: 24.9% of private label coffee, against 16.6% for national brands. Product prices in the colors of distributors, however, remain 20 to 30% lower on average.
The giants of agribusiness, penalized by this new, must react quickly to achieve their business goals.
Washington correspondent
Groupon refused to sell to Google last December for $ 6 billion. From Monday, October 24, the company of Chicago, specializing in online distribution of discount coupons for shopping in local markets, should make its IPO on the basis of a valuation of 10 to 12,000,000,000 dollars . However, it is far from the capitalization of 15 to 20 billion, of which Andrew Mason, founder of the company was still dreaming in June.
Several developments have forced Groupon to be more modest. The first hit all companies eager to use public savings. This is the market collapse in August. Investors, fearing a relapse of major economies in recession, are much more circumspect.The proposed IPO of Groupon had been suspended between August and October.
Even more problematic for Groupon: missteps have troubled his potential investors. On the intervention of regulatory authorities, the firm three years old had to revise up sharply the amount of its actual expenses. She had initially forgot to include online advertising spending to acquire customers. And without the investment of 432 million over six months, she could never show a turnover of 688 million.It is only through this aggressive marketing Groupon also have accumulated more than 115 million subscribers and more than ten-fold increase in sales in one year.
Affected by other accounting blunders – including the inclusion in its sales revenue and then transferred to merchants – the CEO of Groupon, Margo Georgiadis, resigned after only six months on the job easy payday loans. It has not yet been replaced. In addition, Groupon has to convince that his model is viable and that the start-up can stand up to the strong competition rages, especially from Amazon, Google and industry experts as LivingSocial. For now, Groupon is the industry leader – an advantage that distinguishes all Internet companies tempted by the Stock Exchange today.
Sunrise 500-700000000
But stay number one requires a considerable investment.Number of traders attracted by its staff are aware of the experience that customers quickly drawn into their shop with coupons do not necessarily come. To remain attractive to merchants, Groupon and peers rely on the creation of thematic niches (travel, babies, etc.)..
All this explains why Groupon not trying at first to rise from 500 to 700,000,000 dollars. If strong demand materializes, it could go further, or wait a few months and get a higher valuation. Advised by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, Groupon could also benefit from investors' appetite for Internet stocks. Of Zynga Facebook, candidates are numerous, but few have passed the time.
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"One might think that more French people remained in the Hexagon this summer, which took the train," says David Azema, the Chief Operating Officer of SNCF responsible for the strategy. Between July and September, sales of the travel industry group, which includes the TGV and international routes operated by joint ventures (Thalys, Lyria …) jumped 8.7% in the summer of 2010. Since the beginning of the year, its sales rose 7.1% to 24.19 billion euros, up 5.2% at constant scope and exchange rates.Sales since the beginning of the year is progressing in all areas.
Near the branch, which includes regional trains and also houses Keolis, a subsidiary of public transport, has become the main contributor to the SNCF group with a turnover of over $ 9 billion over nine months, up 6.5% compared to last year. "Proximity" of benefits including state aid to bail out the trains balance of the territory (TET), these unprofitable lines that the state has agreed a year ago to subsidize.
"We are doing better in all branches thanks to the improvement of agreements signed with Réseau Ferré de France, for which the branch Infra work more profitable, but also with the state as part of the TET, said David Azema. Because trains balance of the territory we had last year a loss of 210 million euros.This year, we charge the revenues of the State by this convention. "
A flat on the side of freight transport
However, a shadow appears on the side of freight transport. If SNCF Geodis displays a nine-month increase of 3.8% of its turnover, the logistics sector was down 1.1% in the last quarter. "The activity of Transportation Commission, which worked very well, has declined by 8.7% during the last quarter which is a measure of slower traffic flows between Asia and Europe," says David Azema.
This performance should enable the group to achieve its margin, its leaders do not want to reveal.
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Barely recovered from the earthquake and tsunami of March 11 in Japan, car makers now face the wrath and flooding currently affecting Thailand and have already killed at least 300 people and damaged 10% of rice fields in the country. "It's like the tsunami in Japan who also had an impact on plants in Thailand because of shortage of spare parts," warns Payungsak Chartsutthipol, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, fearing the "massive losses" for an industry that will "several months to recover."
Regional Centre for the automotive industry with nearly 2 million units per year over the Su-East Asia, the Kingdom is home to the factories of Toyota, Ford or Honda. These floods are a blow to companies that relied on plants abroad to recover their losses in Japan.Toyota has already announced that it extended until 22 October to suspend its activities in Thailand. "The Japanese drama have exhausted by forcing them to close their factories for two months. And now, flooding slow down production in Thailand, "says Hans Greimel, Asia editor of Automotive News.
An estimated cost of 3.5 billion euros
High technology are not spared. American groups Seagate Technology and Western Digital have warned that their production would be affected hard drives. Chipmakers and électroniquesON Semiconductor Microsemi have suspended them.Finally, the Japanese electronics giant, Nikon, arrested one of its States, and its competitor Canon has transferred the production of inkjet printers to a site in Vietnam payday advance lenders.
More than the car – which represents 11% of GDP in Thailand – and electronics, the whole economy that is fragile. The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated the total cost of flooding to about 150 billion baht (3.5 billion), or between 1.3% and 1.5% of GDP in with agriculture, tourism and trade. "If Bangkok is flooded again, the losses will be even greater," warns Thanawat Polwichai, head of the forecast center at the university. According to the President of the Federation of Thai Industries, Sing Tangcharoenchaichana, quoted by the Bangkokpost, a local newspaper, the damage could even reach 190 billion baht (4.4 billion).He said the financial cost could even double if the floods continued for another two months or more. In comparison, the Japanese government had estimated the financial impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to 147 million euros.
Even if the authorities is confident in their ability to protect the megalopolis of 12 million, the Central Bank should lower its growth forecast for 2011, currently 4.1%. "The experience in Japan of a fairly rapid recovery of production after the tsunami of March offers hope, but the experience in Thailand may be less happy, say consultants IHS Global Insight. Not only the affected area is much larger, but many areas suffer the consequences. "
Febrile atmosphere around Dexia announced the dismantling of which is to organize. On Thursday afternoon, the rating on the stock exchange was suspended at the request of the Belgian regulator: the action was losing more than 17% amid rumors that many French-Belgian bank was forced each time to confirm or to reverse. It will again be listed on Monday.
Dexia has confirmed to be entered into exclusive negotiations "with a group of international investors that the government of Luxembourg will attend" to sell its subsidiary private bank, the BIL (Banque Internationale à Luxembourg). This discussion has actually been mainly engaged with the sovereign fund of Qatar, several sources indicate.The Luxembourg Finance Minister, Luc Frieden, for his part, justified the participation of the Grand Duchy as a "minority shareholder" in the name of "systemic" to his country of BIL's 12 billion euros of deposits and forty traditional bank branches.
The first assignment could be raised on Saturday by the Board of Directors of Dexia, intended, according to a close case, to "calibrate the overall strategy of the division of Dexia."
This strategy is already known in outline. This is to sell every major business or large branch. Dexia will gradually emptied of its substance and its assets down to the most difficult to sell, mainly the bond portfolio of 95 billion euros and a life of thirteen years.The State guarantee French and Belgian finance Dexia and ultimately apply to "cantonment" low interest rate personal loans.
On this basis, negotiations, under pressure from the markets and financial authorities who fear a confusion between the case of Dexia and the rest of the European banking sector are extremely complex: in addition to buyers interested in a particular asset, discussion involving the management of Dexia, its shareholders and the Belgian side the French side, and the states.
Mutual distrust
However, the pattern holds only insofar as the current shareholders of Dexia are collectively responsible. The centrifugal forces exerted, especially in Belgium, must be curbed. Thursday, pushing the Belgian regions, according to local press, a scheme of demerger of the retail DBB (Dexia Bank Belgium).
Seen from France, the idea goes wrong, since the ultimate goal of the operation is that the sale of assets – DBB is a price – reported enough money to build the hive and absorb as much as possible losses that would otherwise eventually be collected by the states.
The mistrust is mutual. On the Belgian side, Prime Minister Yves Leterme has hammered yesterday that his country did not intend to be alone with Dexia on the arms. "We must continue to fund all the past, and we will not do it alone," said the Finance Minister Didier Reynders. On this side of the border, negotiations continue on the transfer of the portfolio and lending activities to local authorities in the Deposit and La Banque Postale.
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