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Lefigaro.fr – Can we say that Kweku Adoboli is "the new Kerviel"?
Frederic Boulier – It is true that there are many similarities with the Kerviel affair. The amounts are lost in the same order of magnitude. Jerome Kerviel lost 4.9 billion euros at Societe Generale, but before the "unwinding" of his positions, the loss amounted to 1.5 billion euros. In addition, two young traders of thirty years who do not leave the harem and who have a priori not studied mathematics attacks.If such solutions were introduced to Jérôme Kerviel, the fraud was detected nine months in advance.
The laxity of financial institutions will he accelerate the reform of British banking system?
I do not see because the British government stand by to this new fraud. Today, a single trader can place a financial institution to its knees if there is not an effective risk control upstream. It should probably expect the introduction of special measures to strengthen the role of authorities to monitor the control of financial institutions.Since the Kerviel affair and the "subprime" mistrust vis-à-vis banks is clearly went crescendo.
Why banks have not they learned from the Kerviel affair?
It is difficult to generalize and say that the lessons of the Kerviel affair were not included. This is not the financial system is to question, even if it is true that there are likely other fraud of this magnitude. Moreover, according to statistics, there are all two or three years. We can not avoid all financial frauds. However, one can detect some with software solutions that I advanced earlier and limit losses to a few million or tens of millions of euros.
Is it the fabulous bonuses which encourage traders to take risks as important?
It is true that greed can push market participants to take some unnecessary risks. But in 99% of cases of fraud, be aware there is no direct personal gain. Traders are sometimes victims of runaway losses due to the desire to "chasing" in the jargon of traders.
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»IN PICTURES – The largest financial fraud
By opening 369 new tourist residences furnished this winter, Pierre & Vacances Avoriaz ever growing, the station founded in 1967 by its President Gerard Bremond. The group, which already operates a large proportion of accommodation in place, there were 925 apartments last winter in the resort. In one season, thus increasing its capacity by almost 40%! "The work was so important that the station was closed this summer!" Said Gerard Bremond. Closed? Not quite … From April to September, Pierre & Vacances has sold any stay in Avoriaz, but the owners of apartments in the resort have obviously been able to come.
The new residences will be paying trademarks of Pierre & Vacances Maeva Pierre & Vacances but Pierre & Vacances, offers the most upscale of the group that he arrived in Avoriaz.Count for 3 rooms (6 persons), from 1760 euros per week in December, February and March. Residences Pierre & Vacances offer spa, day care, bar lounge and larger apartments are equipped with home video and Nespresso coffee machine.
"There are 15 apartments for sale"
The ambitious expansion program of Pierre & Vacances Avoriaz to be completed next year: 104 new appartrements Pierre & Vacances will open in 2013 and a "Aquariaz", an area water park (with wave pool, slides, tree water ….) will be inaugurated next summer. In total, these studies represent an unprecedented investment of 200 million euros. But true to its strategy, Pierre & Vacances will do a small part (the Aquariaz a $ 12 million). The tourism group has in fact sold to private investors plan all new apartments."There are 15 apartments for sale", says Gerard Bremond.
The spirit of the resort, it remains the same. In Avoriaz, there is no car, we walk, especially ski or horse-drawn carriage (there are 100 horses). The clientele is international and 40%, led the largest group of foreigners, the English and Dutch.
Low growth, but at all levels. The Bouygues group announced Wednesday an increase in sales of 4% in first half (1% at constant exchange rates) to 15.2 billion euros and a net profit of 391 million euros, withdrawal of 27% over the same period the previous year. The net result appears, in turn to an increase of 6% to 752 million euros, the group said in a statement. The debt ratio of the group remains unchanged from the end of June 2010 from 43% to 42%.
As for the 2011 second quarter results, they are also an improvement over the second quarter of 2010. Revenues rose 4%, with an increase in trading profit of 11% and net income of 2%. For its first quarter 2011, Bouygues had reported a turnover of 6.686 billion euros (up 4%), and net income of 34 million euros.
The positive interim results allow Bouygues to revise upwards the target of revenue, it is revised upward to 32 billion euros.
Good activity for all occupations, despite Alstom
All trades of the Bouygues group showed a good business in the first half. Construction Bougues renewed growth and recorded a turnover of 4.7 billion euros, up 4% (+5% in France, 2% internationally), with net income which amounted to 94 million euros (+6%). The order book of the subsidiary recorded a record 15.5 billion euros, up 12% compared to June 30, 2010 and includes the project Balard, up to 1 billion euros.
TF1 realizes a turnover almost stable at 1 no teletrack payday loans.278 billion euros, confirming its ability to control costs and adapt its business model.The group's net profit stood at 119 million euros (61%).
As the group announced, following a first quarter strongly affected by non-recurring expenses, the financial contribution to Alstom was down sharply, with net income of 94 million euros in the first half of 2011 ( 216 million euros in the first half of 2010). However, in line with the second half of 2010/2011, Alstom has experienced strong growth in orders in the first quarter 2011/2012 and confirmed its operating margin target of between 7% and 8% for the year 2011/2012.
Issuer bid of 1.25 billion euro
To address the recent decline in its stock price (-27% since June 1), Bouygues said on Wednesday a draft tender offer in its own shares for total of 1.25 billion euros.This offer is for a maximum of 11.7% stake in the company at a price of 30 euros per share, representing a 30% premium on the closing price on August 30 and a premium of 29% on average months. The repurchased shares will be canceled, the company said in a statement released Wednesday.
The transaction will be submitted for approval at the extraordinary general meeting to be convened on October 10. For information, the offer would be open from 11 to 31 October 2011.
This morning, the rating agency Moody's affirmed the A3 rating of the group, with a stable outlook.
Shortly before the opening on Tuesday on Wall Street index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, yielded 0.74% to 1199.20 points and 2207.50 points to 0.56%. The Dow Jones was waiting for his part, down 0.59% at 11,449 points.
After the flight of the day, the New York Stock Exchange and could catch his breath at the opening on Tuesday. Profit taking, mixed with caution always appreciated by investors, seem to encourage U.S. stock markets to begin the session backwards. Even if the words, held last Friday by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured, prompting indexes rebounded strongly yesterday, investors remain worried.As recalled in a note Tuesday that Jean-Michel Six, chief Europe economist for Standard & Poor's, a "recession" double-dip "is preventable, but the risk increases."
Real Estate and Consumer Menu
Investors monitor more than ever the various macroeconomic indicators of the week free credit report and score. Both are on the agenda for this Tuesday: the Case-Shiller real estate index of house prices for June, from 15.00. Then will come at 16:00, the numbers of consumer confidence for August.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes of the last meeting of 9 August, the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. central bank will also be observed under the microscope, after market close, at 20:00 Paris time .
On the corporate side, no major publication on Tuesday.Bank of America on Monday launched a new large-scale operation to strengthen its capital by selling about half its stake in China Construction Bank, which allows him to approach the future requirements of rules known as "Basel III". The bank will retain 5% stake in the establishment of China (BCC) after this transaction, which must be completed by the end of September. The sale includes 13.1 million shares of the CCB to a group of investors.
Like the Asian stock markets, although directed this morning with the exception of the financial center of Shanghai, is expected to open the Cac 40 up 1.5% above 3100 points, according to the indices "future" in the rebound in wake of U.S. indexes on Friday. The main European indices, with the exception of the London Stock Exchange will remain closed on Monday, are expected up 1.1% and 2%.
Friday, after a negative early trading, Wall Street has ended the session on gains of 1.2% for the Dow and the Nasdaq 2.5%, investors focusing on positive ads during the next meeting of the Federal Reserve in September, Ben Bernanke hinted at the conference of Jackson Hole.The anticipation of a further intervention by the Fed puts the dollar under pressure against a basket of currencies: the dollar is trading at 1.4537 dollar per euro.
And always in the context of the general economic meeting in Jackson Hole's new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, has urged this weekend to recapitalize banks. She said that the European institutions "need of urgent recapitalization." The former Minister of Economy and Finance believes that these measures are the "key to cut the chain of contagion." Blow to the banking industry, already largely weakened during the summer.
Pending on the details of the background of aid to Greece In Greece, aid modalities are not yet fastened.Negotiations were slowed by the requirements of Finland and the new challenges of Athens.
And referring to the financial crisis, Laurence Parisot estimates for its part, that "if Europe were attacked, not because it is weak but because it is strong, and if it is envy, c ' is because it is enviable, "In an interview with Le Figaro, the boss of bosses denounced a U.S. plot against the euro area.
Irene reduced cost
Other news of the weekend: the passage of Hurricane Irene passed through New York without drama. He also was demoted to a tropical depression. U.S. markets should open smoothly and Monday. Hurricane Irene would have between 500 million and one billion dollars in damage in the Caribbean and the United States, according to catastrophe modeling firm EQECAT.A figure below the most pessimistic forecasts considered before the hurricane.
The price of Brent was down, refineries and oil terminals on the East Coast of the United States seem not to have suffered major damage, easing fears of a supply disruption. In addition, Libya resumes oil exports within a month, according to the spokesman of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco), controlled by the rebels. Crude oil production will resume in mid-September on two deposits in the country.
Still on macroeconomic markets will learn on Monday of income and household consumption in the United States in July and promises of home sales.
Banking supervision
As for values, the eyes of investors should focus on banking stocks, after the words of Christine Lagarde.
In addition, Ingenico said it had repurchased TNET, an Italian company specializing in payment terminals, for an amount that was not disclosed. According to Ingenico, TNET manages an installed base of 45,000 terminals in Italy.
APRR observe the re-opening until September 9 of the OPR launched by Eiffage and Macquarie. The toll road was also noted Friday that the evolution of traffic early in the second half was mixed for light vehicles, but remained well oriented for heavy vehicles.
In addition, ING has lowered its board to maintain, against buy Arkema on the title and reduced its price target on the value to 55 euros (as against 85 euros).
Canal + could push his plans for the IPO.While the ACC has lost nearly 20% of its value during the summer, analysts are skeptical of an imminent public offerings of media group, reports Les Echos. The listing of the 20% held by Lagardère has already been de-programmed, it could eventually sell its stake in Vivendi, the majority shareholder.
For its part Orange would be in conflict with the American Cogent. The U.S. operator has, according to La Tribune, filed a complaint against his French counterpart to the competition authority for "abuse of dominant position." Orange is accused of preventing users from accessing the site MegaUpload.the conflict began in January when Orange had decided to grant the account drop traffic from Cogent.
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In Berlin
Leading economic powers of the continent, Germany continues to print a rapid pace in the consolidation of public accounts. The Federal Ministry of Finance has fixed Monday downward its forecast deficit for fiscal 2011, reducing it to 1.5% of GDP, against 2.5% so far.
With seven consecutive months of increases, tax revenues fueled by favorable economic conditions help to clear the accounts. Despite the crisis of the euro and the slowdown brutal (0.1%) of growth in the second quarter, Germany displays unique performance in Europe. It is even "a balanced budget in 2014," according to the monthly report of the Ministry of Finance.
As good news never comes alone, the Bundesbank has maintained its growth forecast for the year, around 3%, despite the uncertainties on the global economy.Uncertainties also swept by the Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who sees "no signs of recession on the horizon" and "no cause for concern," despite the decline in exports and domestic consumption, traditional 'heel Achilles of the economy across the Rhine. With these results, which provide water to his mill, Germany does not want to break the pattern that ensures its development. With even greater risk of stuck behind its partners in the crisis and strengthen the idea of a Euro at two speeds. The Eurobonds are still seen in Berlin as a bad idea. Such obligations could put a strain on public accounts and stopping growth. Estimates vary, but the most pessimistic estimate that the pooling of risk could cost 25 billion per year budget.Half the projected deficit for this year.
Meet Baroin
In its traditional large back-up interview on public television, Chancellor Merkel called Eurobonds "wrong answer to the crisis." And showed its determination in the battle with speculators, "The markets want to force us to do things that we do not want to. Policies can not and should not run behind the markets. "The only Conservative leader weight to leave the door open to this option is Wolfgang Schäuble. However, it is satisfied that it is necessary first to establish a common budgetary and fiscal policy. He will discuss this and a tax on financial transactions at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday morning in Paris with his French counterpart, Francois Baroin.The two men were responsible for making joint Franco-German proposals on these two subjects in the fall.
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The magazine Wired has signed the death warrant of the Web in September 2010. "The Web is dead," was titled the Bible in a high-tech. Provocative, the statement was intended to signal the end of the exploration of the Internet by a browser (Firefox, Safari, Internet Explorer …) in favor of a consumption of digital content for mobile applications from a smartphone or multimedia tablet.
In the U.S., the consultation of mobile applications already widely prevails (67%) on access to mobile sites (33%) in the heart of Android smartphone users, revealed a study released Friday by the Institute Nielsen.Applications dominate all other uses of the smartphone, representing 56% of the activity of a mobile terminal, as against 19% for email, 15% for calls and … 9% devoted to the Web browser.
This trend has important implications for content publishers. Indeed, they become dependent on the conditions imposed by the guardians of these ecosystems built, defining the rules, the terminal to the platform for downloading through the operating system. Apple, with its IOS and its terminals iPad or iPhone is the most obvious incarnation.The firm at the apple has chosen to abandon the format in favor of Flash HTML5 – making it unreadable number of animations and videos on the Internet – and imposes conditions of payment (30%) to content providers who sell subscriptions or applications from its platform.
The "surf neutrality"
Google, Motorola, now has the means to replicate this model of vertical integration. He recalled the "walled garden" (walled gardens) built in the early hours of the Web by companies such as AOL and CompuServe. These providers offer their subscribers a selection of content offered Pardes partners, before gradually breaking down barriers and open wide to the Web world.
The return of the closed logic could push regulators to question certain practices.It happens and a mobinaute seeking to visit a Web site on the iPad, via the Safari browser, it means to be denied access and sent automatically to the mobile application site in question on the App Store. Practices that seem to hinder the freedom of surfing. The "surf neutrality" could well be the new frontier to defend after the "Search neutrality" and Net neutrality.
New black day on Wall Street. After opening in the dark red (-2.19% for the Dow and -3% for the Nasdaq), the New York Stock Exchange closed down a massive. The Dow Jones lost 3.68% to 10,990.58 points and the Nasdaq was unscrewed from 5.22% to 2380.43 points.
The New York Stock Exchange, which has already ended the session on Wednesday on a very hesitant, was weighed down by fears of contagion from the crisis of European debt to U.S. banks and the threat of a relapse of economy after disappointing figures on the employment front in the United States. Symbol of this fear on the recovery, oil finished down 6% in New York, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery ended at 82.38 dollars.
In Europe, stock markets have been driven into the red, pulled down by banking shares.The markets are worried about the global economic downturn, following the release of retail sales increased very slightly in Britain.
Morgan Stanley is concerned about global growth
Morgan Stanley also lowered its growth forecast of the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries. In a note published Thursday, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead 4.5%.
The bad mood is compounded by a series of important indicators in the U.S. on Thursday and go in the direction of a faltering economic recovery.
First bad news earlier this afternoon with the weekly jobless claims: The Labor Department reported a larger increase than expected last week. They reach 408,000 registrations, against 399,000 the previous week. Economists on average had expected 400,000. The consumer prices have in turn increased more than expected in July (0.5%), driven by the rebound in gasoline prices.
The index of the Philadelphia Fed, the "Philly Fed" came out in very sharp decline in August, well below expectations. It plunged to -30.7 in August from 3.2 in July, while the consensus of analysts expected a slight rebound to 3.7.He thus reached its lowest level since March 2009.
The U.S. index of leading indicators, however, increased more than expected in July to a record high, due to growth in money supply and a decline in jobless claims, the Conference Board said Thursday.
Finally, existing home resales fell contrary to expectations: they were down 3.5% in July, while analysts expected a 3.8% increase, according to figures from the NAR.
New record for gold
In terms of raw materials, while the stock markets fall, gold has reached a new record on Thursday: an ounce of the precious metal rose to 1816.25 dollars on the spot market. Oil markets, prices opened down sharply in New York, the new access affected in a bad mood.To 15 hours (French time), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 85.02 dollars, down 2.56 dollars compared to the previous day.
On the currency markets, the euro lost some ground against the dollar, struggling to find direction in a sluggish market and cautious with the release of U.S. indicators and always weighed down by the debt crisis in the eurozone. At the close of Wall Street, the euro bought 1.4345 dollars against 1.4428 dollars late Wednesday.
Values of the day
Hewlett-Packard, which published its results before the scheduled time (turnover of 31.2 billion, in line with expectations) and resulted in a trading halt, announced it was negotiating the purchase of Autonomy Corp., a transaction by Bloomberg estimated 10 billion dollars. It envisages the other to separate its computer division, its largest business, but less profitable.It also abandons the tablet touchpad.
NetApp declined by 14.04% in early trade to 35.81 dollars. The group missed the consensus for its first quarter of fiscal 2012, with a turnover of 1.46 billion, against $ 1.51 billion expected by analysts. The net decrease of $ 150.7 million to $ 139.5 million
The communications systems equipment supplier JDS Uniphase (-12.81% to 10.20 dollars) has reported a net quarterly profit of $ 9.3 million, or 4 cents per share against 1.5 million the last year. It provides a low turnover in respect of its first quarter due to adverse economic conditions, but is optimistic in view of its order book.
Coca-Cola (-2.14% to 67.80 dollars) will invest four billion dollars more in China between 2012 and 2014, reported Thursday the New China News Agency, quoting the CEO of the world's leading soft drinks.
Sears Holdings (-8.16% to 55.23 dollars) reported a higher loss than expected in the second quarter, sales were weak and the promotions have started margins.
Ross Stores (-4.86% to 68.31 dollars) has reported a better than expected pofitive the second quarter but is cautious about these results for the rest of the year in a difficult environment.
Dollar Tree (-1.34% to 70.84 dollars) has reported an increase of 22% of its profit in the second quarter.The distributor has revised upwards its forecast for earnings per share (between 3.82 and 3.95 against 3.69 dollars and 3.85 dollars expected in May).
IBM (-4.46% to 163.83 dollars) is one of two candidates vying to buy at Lufthansa subsidiary Lufthansa Systems, the German press reported Thursday. Another potential buyer is the conglomerate Tata Group.
Gap (-5.48% to 15.52 dollars) and Foot Locker (-6% to 17.56 dollars) must publish their results after the close.
American billionaire Warren Buffett wants his share of sacrifice to help America reduce its budget deficit. In an article published in The New York Times, the head of Berkshire Hathaway investment fund called on parliamentarians to raise taxes on Americans with annual incomes exceed a million dollars, and even more taxing those who earn more than ten million dollars per year.
He said it does not hurt to use or for investment, while helping to clean up the country's finances. "Our leaders have called for shared sacrifice, he writes. But when they did ask, they spared me. I checked with my friends to see which mégariches sacrifices they expected payday loans in 1 hour.Them either were not affected. "Warren Buffett has led his small survey: last year's tax rate accounted for 17.4% of its taxable income, while that of 20 workers in his office was between 33% and 41%.
"While the poor and middle class fighting for us in Afghanistan, and while many Americans are struggling to make ends meet, we, the mégariches, continue to benefit from special tax exemptions," says the American billionaire.
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Cyprus is on the brink both economically and politically. Many speculate that the country, which joined the euro in 2008 to become the fourth of the area to apply for financial support.
The situation worsened with the explosion on July 11 last of a shipment of arms on a naval base. The tragedy left 13 dead and destroyed the main power plant on the island that produced 60% of its electricity. Since the disaster, Cyprus is facing a government crisis. Daily demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Demetris Christofias. To calm discontent, the latter requested the July 28 resignation of the government to conduct a reshuffle.
In addition, the economy ends up weaker than ever. The rating agency Moody's has revised its forecast for GDP growth of 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2012 down after the explosion.It provides stability in 2011 and a 1% growth in 2012. In addition to the cost of rebuilding the plant and import of electricity in the interval – valued at over one billion euros – daily cuts disrupt an economy already weakened by the crisis. As a result, Standard & Poor's and Moody's both lowered the rating last week in Cyprus due to budgetary concerns of the country.
The banks are the Achilles heel of the Cypriots. Bank of Cyprus, the largest financial institution on the island, called earlier this week the government in Nicosia to take prompt action to prevent the country does need a financial rescue plan. "Unless we act, we risk the ability of the state to refinance and the consequences will be immediate and serious," the bank said in a statement.
The deficit is widening
Especially since the official debt of Cyprus – which is about 61% of GDP – may actually be higher according to some experts. End of 2010, the agency Stock Watch estimates that the debt was around Cyprus 105% of GDP, if we include the debt of social security funds. Enough to feed all the speculation? The spokesman of the Commissioner of Financial Services, Chantal Hughes said Tuesday he was "no question of an assistance plan" because the country is "determined to do what is necessary in terms of fiscal consolidation" . However, the deficit in the first half widened sharply, reaching 3.5% of GDP against 1.9% a year earlier.
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