Archive for the 'opinions' Category

France has 60 million savings books

Good news for holders of a booklet A. Next Sunday, August 1, the rate of return on investment the most popular in France will increase from 1.25% to 1.75%.

The French plébiscitent more than ever the Livret A. At the end of 2009, there were no fewer than 59.3 million savings books (and blue, distributed by Crédit Mutuel), nearly 65 million inhabitants! If one adds the 600,000 booklets initiated by associations, there are nearly 60 million savings books (59.9 million to be exact). That is 10 million more than 2008 (49.69 million booklets A and blue).The current 60 million books, however, must be qualified because, contrary to what the law says, many French people have more than one account.

The widespread distribution of the Livret A, 1 January 2009, has allowed this very old investment (born 1818) to learn a new youth. "The interchange has resulted in strengthening the collection, especially during the first quarter of 2009, in a context it is true in favor of regulated savings," said Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France and President of the Observatory regulated savings. For the record, between August 2008 and February 2009, Book A reported 4% net of taxes!

Young people more attracted

In total, at the end of last year, the outstanding Blue Book A and amounted to 183.4 billion euros, up 11%.Of this amount, "153 billion euros have been collected by distributors historical (the Savings Bank, La Banque Postale and Crédit Mutuel) and 30.3 billion from other banks, which for them represents 18% collection, "said Christian Noyer. This proves that, contrary to what some feared, dealers history have resisted the opening to competition.

Disoriented by the chaotic stock market and uncertain economic climate, investors continue to place their savings passbooks regulated, however low returns.

Despite a slump in June, in the first six months of the year, collecting on the book A and book Sustainable Development (ex-Codevi) remained positive at 990 million euros. This trend should continue and even grow in the coming months.Generally, the higher rates in effect encouraged the French, always very reluctant to risk, to feed their booklets.

In late 2009, 42% of assets were placed on 4.3 million booklets only! In contrast, more than half of the accounts (30 million) were credited with less than 150 euros. Is it because the book A is held mostly by young people (usually minor)? Older people (over 65) it would generally prefer other types of investments, such as life insurance.

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Call centers in the sights of government

Often criticized by customers, the outsourcing of call centers to foreign countries is becoming a government priority. According to Le Parisien on Sunday, the record has been taken over by the Secretary of State for Employment Laurent Wauquiez. The latter is studying a plan of action to fight against the leakage of these jobs outside French territory.

To emphasize the installation of these centers in France, the Secretary of State may well introduce a surcharge "of calls from sites located abroad.Conversely, companies deciding to keep their call centers in France would receive the "nudges" as aid in recruitment, training, installation in rural areas or relief from social security contributions, believes Learn daily.

More transparency

Laurent Wauquiez would generally aim to "make practices more transparent" left to prepare "a list of poor performers. The fight against the relocation, however, looks very difficult. According to latest estimates, dating to 2008, the Union of professional contact center (SP2C), an employee of a call center Morocco is for example paid between 400 and 450 euros a month against a minimum of 1320 euro gross France (including bonuses and thirteenth month).The battle is also likely to face the refusal of the Commission in Brussels which could object to these tax measures.

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Economists fear a new recession

"If we do not change policy, we will in the wall." Jacques Attali, President of PlanetFinance and author of a book entitled "All ruined in ten years? Public debt: the last chance "does not beat around the bush. After a week when financial markets are worried about the emergence of a new recession, former adviser to Francois Mitterrand and confirms that the government must halt the rise in public debt. And for this, a policy of austerity. "We're on the brink of a global deflation as it has ever seen for a century and a half," he said.

In alarm that has not failed to react as President of the European Central Bank (ECB). "I do not think the risk of a recession.Globally, it is clear that we are in a recovery phase, confirmed particularly in the emerging world, but also in the industrialized world, "said Jean-Claude Trichet. That did not stop to be careful. "Growth is not written in the industrialized world, it depends on the ability of countries to strengthen the confidence of households, firms and enterprises," he says.

Grand European loan

Europe is not doomed to stagnation. According to economists, big bosses and politicians gathered in Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum for the Old Continent has to reform, reduce deficits and build on innovation. "Without policy change, the growth potential of Europe for the next ten years will be around 1.3% to 1.5% per year.We would then take years to regain the levels of unemployment pre-crisis, "says economist Christian de Boissieu.

For this, the Circle of economists in favor of a large loan eueuropéen, referring to the one established last year by Nicolas Sarkozy. The idea is, like its sister French, invest in innovation, green technology or education. "Innovation and services are crucial. The deindustrialization of the United States had no areas of very high technology, because they have attracted the intelligence world, "says Louis Welsh, president of EADS.

"Place of Culture and Tourism

The question is how to articulate these priorities, fiscal consolidation and sustaining growth -. Hence the idea of an overhaul of EU policies.In short, Europe must "change the growth model," according to former Prime Minister Alain Juppe. "The EU lacks coherence between its short and medium term focus on reducing deficits, and the long term that seeks to promote investment in the knowledge economy," says economist Agnes Benassy-Quere.

Far from being able to display growth rates comparable to those of emerging countries, Europe has every interest to agree on next steps. Otherwise it will be reduced to "a place of culture and tourism," says Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, President of Circle of economists.

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"European governments in the era of austerity

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The Court of Auditors hairpin Post

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic

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G20 attention to the excessive rigor

Fiercely negotiated three days in Toronto, the draft statement of the G20 should offend anyone. If it includes the rigorous growth strategy, it also warns against excessive austerity. Still as unpopular worldwide, the tax credit is mentioned by the G20 as a means available to states to pass through to the banks of the crisis mess. The 28 pages of draft final declaration, which obtained a copy of Figaro, operate a subtle synthesis between European and American positions.

Angela Merkel can boast of having imposed the virtues of fiscal discipline at the highest level. But to the relief of Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, she has not transformed the G20 summit of austerity."Recent events show the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to implement measures to consolidate budget spread over time, conducive to growth, and differentiated according to country and national circumstances," says the One of the phrases most discussed compromise.

Determined to make growth "priority" of the G20, the United States got to place the term "recovery" prominently in the declaration, a challenge, says a trader. "We need to let it work through our plans to consolidate fiscal stimulus recovery," said the G20 as well. "Adjustments in simultaneous biggest countries could undermine the recovery," it added.

Disagreement over the top on bank charges

Canada has not really managed to impose a stability pact worldwide."Advanced economies have pledged to take measures to consolidate budgetary decline by at least half the deficit by 2013, and stabilize or reduce the debt / GDP ratio by 2016, said the G20. Nothing that does very afraid of the euro area, or even France, which has promised to reduce its deficit to 3% in 2013. The White House, meanwhile, did not wait for the G20 to commit to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.

If the disagreement at the summit endorsed the tax credit, due to strong opposition from Canada to Australia, but also emerging countries (China, India, Russia), the G20 mention the tax as an option for countries seeking to save public money in any future banking crisis.Defended by the IMF, the tax would be adjusted to take the risk profile of financial institutions.

ALSO READ: "G20: disagreements about bank charges" Deficit reduction in the heart of the G20 "G20: Sarkozy is located in the Obama camp

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The purchasing power has registered a decline of 0.1%.

In the U.S., the third estimate of GDP is known to 14:30.

Banks up

As for values, Credit Agricole (-1.7%) Societe Generale (1.4%) BNP Paribas (+1.1%) and Axa (1.32%) appear at the top of the charts of best performance of the CAC 40, behind Vivendu which grimpede 1.7% to 17.5 euros.

In contrast, the values cars are worth, including Peugeot plir 0.67%, Renault, 0.36%, 0.6% Michelin. Construction is bad too, with Lafarge (-0.96%), largest decline, and Saint-Gobain (-0.25%).

Latecoère: 2.56% to 6 euros According to Le Figaro, the aerospace supplier will propose to its shareholders on Friday, meeting in General Assembly, the free allocation of share purchase warrants (BSA) in 2012.

The EDF Group postponed its decision to invest in an LNG terminal in Dunkirk (Northern), said Thursday a spokesman for the group. This terminal was supposed to compensate for some job losses related to the closure of the refinery from Total.

Computer Services sector companies might respond to better than expected quarterly results announced Thursday evening by Accenture. The Group's net profit stood at 564 million dollars (457 million euros), or $ 0.73 per share against 537 million ($ 0.68 per share) a year ago and $ 0.69 expected by Wall Street.

Alstom: -0.5% to 38.3 euros French industrial group on Thursday launched a U.S. production plant turbines, especially for nuclear power generation, for which he has invested about $ 300 million, according to a statement.

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The United Kingdom wants to eliminate its deficit in 5 years

The British government announced austerity cure the biggest since the Second World War. The measures announced thus leave little room for surprise. On Tuesday before the Parliament, the finance minister George Osborne has announced that his government had a deficit of 1.1% in 2015-16 against 10.1% this year. This means that the deficit would increase from 149 billion pounds in 2010 to 20 billion in 2015/16.

To achieve this objective, the minister calls for reducing departmental running costs of 30 billion pounds per year by 2014-2015. The expenditure review will be presented to Parliament on 20 October. The salaries of public servants will be frozen for two years.Similarly, net borrowing of the state are scaled down to 149 billion pounds this year, six billion less than expected last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the new independent oversight body budget. The net borrowing should be reduced to 116 billion pounds in 2011-2012 to 89 billion in 2012-2013, then gradually to 20 billion in 2015-2016.

Among other measures announced: an increase in VAT, which will be increased to 20% from January 4, 2011, against 17.5% currently. "By the end of the mandate of the current Parliament, this measure alone will bring more than 13 billion pounds per year of additional revenue. This is 13 billion pounds that we will not find a reduction in spending or a tax increase on income, "he said. The tax on capital gains will also spend 18% to 28% from midnight.

The government also plans to raise the legal age of retirement at age 66. Similarly, a decline of social protection spending is projected to save 11 billion pounds by 4-5 years.

Tax on banks

In addition it will create a tax on banks apply from January next year to British and foreign institutions. This new tax will be calculated on the basis of the balance sheets of banks and mutual groups and British subsidiaries of foreign banks' local payday loans for self employed. "Once fully in place, we expect that the tax will generate more than two billion pounds of annual revenue," he said. The Alcohol, tobacco and fuel will not be taxed.

Changes are also in the agenda on taxes.George Osborne announces plans to cut one percentage point per year for four years the corporation tax to bring it to 24% against 28% currently. "This will give us the lowest rate of major Western economies and the lowest rate of G20," he added. Tax relief for 23 million taxpayers paying the lower tax bracket (20%) will be increased by £ 1,000 in April 2011, allowing them to save 170 pounds each. "The burden" will be "fairly shared", according to the minister.

Growth revised downwards

This budget "emergency", described as "inevitable", will impact on growth of the United Kingdom. The British economy should grow more slowly than expected due to fiscal consolidation. Growth in 2011 is revised downwards to 2.3% in 2011 against 2.6% expected by the OBR.But the minister provided an acceleration thereafter: 2.8% in 2012 and 2.9% in 2013.

"We are on track to reduce debt and achieve a structural budget balance by the end of this legislature, George Osborne promises.

Rejection of the Euro

George Osborne in the wake on Tuesday announced the dissolution of the service of his department who was assigned to work on a possible accession of the United Kingdom to the euro. "I can confirm that, as stated in the coalition agreement, this government will not adopt the euro during this Parliament.So I put away the Treasury Department responsible for preparing for the euro, "he told the House of Commons.

The new government combining conservative and liberal Democrats from the legislative elections of May 6, had promised in his coalition program that the United Kingdom does not adopt the euro and making no such move during the term.

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The Paris Bourse rebounds

While Tuesday night, the CAC 40 has once again ended the session down market, the main index of the Paris attempts a rebound after three days of declines.

At the opening, the Paris Bourse is 0.93% at 3411 points, passing the symbolic start of the 3400 points.

In Asia, however, counters Nikkei enrolled in dark red. The Japanese index finished at its lowest in six months. And if the Dow Jones finished up comfortable last night, the Nasdaq index of technology stocks, has been on a decline, showing the confidence of investors vis-à-vis companies that export to Europe.

Another reason to shun the market, the Fitch rating, released Tuesday afternoon, which estimates that the UK is facing fiscal challenges "formidable".

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remains fragile, and still very much under rated $ 1.2 to U.S. $ 1.1934 around 7:30 exatement.In addition, gold has reached a new record Tuesday, beyond $ 1250.

The CAC 40, which ended Tuesday under 3400 points, should continue to decline on Wednesday.According to technical analysis, the benchmark index of the Paris market, which fell under 3381 points, could soon fall below 3,349 points in intraday (that is to say during the meeting), then the line of sight is then fixed at 3290 points.

Growth of European countries to follow

Several European countries will face the second estimate of GDP in the first quarter of 2010, as Belgium, Portugal, Greece and Hungary, etc..

On Wednesday, OPEC, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) will release its monthly report just after 12:30.

U.S. Overseas, will be published at 16.30 weekly stocks of crude oil, as Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, will now testify before the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives on the economic and financial the federal budget.

EADS: Airbus signs "Order of the Century

Airbus, EADS subsidiary cash "Order of the century. Emirates Airlines will pay 11.5 billion dollars to supplement its fleet of A380s. Titles s'adjugent 2.4% to 16.62 euros.

Remy Cointreau: biggest drop of the SBF 120 The spirits group has published results from 2009 to 2010 a little worse than expected, with organic growth of EBIT by 7.2%, slightly below expectations consensus. The net result is in line with expectations, and the group confirms its growth prospects. In exchange, the current loose 2.6% 41.85 euros.

Ingenico, one of the largest increases The French manufacturer of payment terminals, the world, is a sales "more than one billion euros" in 2013, against 700 million in 2009.The shares climbed 4.3% to 17.2 euros.

Vivendi: -0.78% to 16.44 euros The stock market authorities of the country believe that the group had misinformed the market to buy GVT. The fine could reach 1.3 billion euros, according to the Brazilian press.

France Telecom: 1.1% to 15.3 euros a surprise move in the soap opera twists in the takeover of the newspaper Le Monde. After the trio led by Matthew Pigasse, Pierre Berge, Xavier Niel is Orange on the scene.Stéphane Richard, CEO of France Telecom, has expressed interest in an industrial partnership with Le Monde in an interview with Reuters.

The group will hold its general meeting this Wednesday.

Total: 1.25% to 38.1 euros United Arab Emirates are expected to sign Wednesday with the French Total and the Spanish Abengoa an agreement to build a solar power plant of 100 megawatts (MW) for $ 600 million ( 500 million euros), the Financial Times.

GDF Suez: 0.33% to 24.5 euros GDF Suez will spend 300 million euros to take control of its joint venture with Societe Generale, Gaselys to become a European leader in the trading of gas and Energy, said Wednesday the newspaper Les Echos

Dassault Systemes: +1.6% to 48.3 euros The group announced the acquisition for about 130 million euros of Exalead, a French company specialized in solutions research and access to corporate information and Internet.

ArcelorMittal has initiated the Natixis group couverturedu diversified steelmaker with an opinion "buy" and a target price of 34 euros, or appreciation potential of more than 50%.

Rodriguez Group, the CEO still in custody

The action was suspended on Tuesday at the request of the designer of yachts and pending a statement.Its president is in custody in police stations Marseille, after a crackdown against organized crime.

Property Regions: -0.31% to 71.2 euros The group off his special dividend (3.30 euros + six shares of Beni Stabili) after the closing, prior to the listing of its Italian subsidiary to the Paris Bourse, which starts Friday.

Wendel: +1.1% to 41 euros Wendel Participations, which groups the interests of family shareholders Wendel, holds its General Assembly (GA) on Wednesday. Questions remain about the governance and financial benefits granted to executives, said Sophie Boegner, a member of the family, on the eve of the GA.

OL Groupe: 1.23% to 8.2 eurosLe band announced the arrival of Philippe Sauze, currently vice president Europe, the U.S. company Electronic Arts, the world leader in the videogame industry, as Director General from 1st of July.

Electricity The electricity bill threatens to fly. ERDF, a subsidiary of EDF in charge of distribution, said that the cost initially calculated, ie 120 euros per household, is still relevant. An envelope 4-5000000000 euros to finance the whole operation. However, according to the Federation of local communities, this amount could be twice as high.

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The real estate bubble in China more risky than in the U.S.

Concern swells in China. While inflation has risen another 2.8% in April, house prices have soared 12.8% last month, their sharpest rise in five years. The measures launched in recent months by the central government to cool the Chinese economy struggling to reassure. So much so that some Chinese personalities out of their usual reserve to sound the alarm.

In a video interview published in the Financial Times, Li Daokui, professor at Tsinghua University (located in the northwest suburbs of Beijing) and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said that "the problem housing in China is actually much more fundamental and more important as the housing market in the United States and the United Kingdom before the financial crisis. " He said "it is not only a problem of a bubble.

A "social problem"

Soaring property prices may lead to "social problems of great magnitude," Li Daokui analysis. What would happen is China, at a time when wage demands and strikes have taken center stage in recent days. "When prices start to rise, many people, especially youth, are becoming very concerned." The home ownership, which already applies to few households would be increasingly difficult in the current euphoria estate .

The authorities have announced a round of measures since last January in order to stop the burning of property prices. The state has already imposed restrictions on sales of apartments, including the introduction of "flat shop" in Beijing. He has also taken steps to tighten credit flowing.New loans granted by banks in April, however, have reached 774 billion yuan (87.7 billion euros), or 182.2 billion more than in April 2009. Finally, the government announced the "gradual" introduction of a tax on real property.

Reform at the local level

To advise the Central Bank, this range of measures is a "first step", which will control real estate speculation. But it must involve "a long-term reform" of the Chinese real estate market, warns Li Daokui. "The second stage will address the supply problem." According to the professor, steps should be taken in the second semester or early next year to encourage local governments to provide housing for households moderate and low wage.For now, local authorities prefer to sell their land to generate revenue, Li Daokui regrets.

For him, the tax on housing advertised nationally is not a solution because it may further exclude households in the housing market. An opinion shared by Axa Investment Managers. In his weekly memo, the economist Hervé Lievore points to the "vicious cycle" moved "between investors, developers and local communities," the potential to fuel a "social discontent." Believing that the policy implemented by Beijing makes sense, analysts at Societe Generale also stress the need to manage the supply of real estate in order to curb rising prices and facilitate the accession of China to the property.

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American Express doubles profit

American Express has more than doubled its profit in the first quarter, a sign that the specialist credit card extricates a crisis battering the past two years.

Net income stood at $ 873 million, 73 cents per share, against $ 361 million, 31 cents per share, a year earlier.

Revenues, net interest rose 11% to $ 6.6 billion over the same quarter last year.

Amex charges its excellent resulting output to the resumption of consumer spending and an improvement in credit quality.

The action of the group took 1.8% to 47.61 dollars in after-hours transactions after finishing at 46.77 dollars.

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