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The weather global economic summarized in three figures: production (GDP) will grow 10% this year in China, 3.1% in the U.S. and 1% in the euro area countries. For the whole world, growth is expected in 2010 to 4.2% and 4.3% in 2011. With a clear dividing line between the advanced countries, whose growth prospects are around 2.3%, while savings "emerging and developing" a galloping pace of 6.3%.
These new "World Economic Outlook," IMF showed that "the recovery unfolds better than expected. But new challenges have emerged and exceptional "cautioned Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the Fund. He calls a "warm" restart in the advanced countries, which are still found a lower level of production of 7% it would have without the crisis.In the eurozone, the IMF also revised downwards by 0.1 percentage point to 1% its forecast for growth in 2010, although France, among others, has fared rather better with a forecast of 1.5% instead of 1.4%.
Dependence credit
For Europeans to wonder why their economies pull themselves together much more slowly than America, Olivier Blanchard gives two main explanations. Europe is "more dependent on bank credit as the U.S. market where finance plays a greater role for business and they have restarted the fittest." Furthermore "the policy responses have been later and less strong in Europe," he adds.
This means that the IMF does not disavow the fiscal stimulus packages, including Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the boss, was one of the strongest supporters, from January 2008 fast cash advance. But "it is urgent to develop strategies for fiscal consolidation in the medium term" now stress the same experts. They note that the budget deficits in advanced countries have now reached 9% of GDP on average and that "the debt / GDP ratio should exceed 100% by 2014 if nothing is done.
Rebalancing Economic Policy
The situation is more delicate than a too abrupt adjustment of public finances could hinder growth already shaky.Hence the advice to double trigger "to fully implement fiscal stimulus measures planned for 2010, except in countries which already have a strong increase in their risk premium and must begin to rebalance their budgets now," as Greece. But the most advanced countries should undertake a substantial fiscal consolidation in 2011.
Emerging economies are the reverse face "to an influx of capital, a good thing in itself, but can become excessive," warns Olivier Blanchard. He recovered one of his favorite anthems "the currencies of a number of emerging markets remain undervalued in considerable proportions regarding the yuan." It calls for a revaluation of the currency, both in relation to the dollar than the euro, the only way to give oxygen to Western exports and ease the risk of overheating in Asia.This rebalancing of economic policies will be central to discussions of the G20, whose finance ministers meet Friday in Washington.
It's official! The president of employers' movement Ethic, Sophie Menthon, announced Tuesday on the airwaves of Europe 1, its official bid for the presidency against his current MEDEF Laurence Parisot ruling. It confirms the information Advanced Landre by Marc in his blog.
Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux bench since its announcement in Le Figaro that he would not seek the presidency of the MEDEF, the campaign was revived with the announcement this morning.
"I want every business in France feel represented by the MEDEF" said one who had resigned just last year the ethics committee of the MEDEF. He added: "This is not the case today. The balance of Laurence Parisot is great, but it must go to the conquest of public opinion. I'm an activist and I will speak in the media. "
The high-profile president of the employers' movement Ethic acknowledged that 2009 has been difficult for the bosses. "They were attacked from all sides. To be closer to public opinion, he must reinstate a debate on the business cash advance payday loan. And for that, it is better to have two candidates. "
"The MEDEF has more need of me than I of him"
On the issue of pensions, Sophie Menthon supports the position that Laurence Parisot has urged the government Sunday to push the legal age of retirement.
Sophie Menthon appeared hesitant when she had to clarify whether it would have the 50 signatures needed to be sponsors of the presidential candidate of the MEDEF. "I think so. I am driven by entrepreneurs.The MEDEF has more need of me than I of the MEDEF, "she says.
The campaign for the presidency of the MEDEF was launched last week by its current boss, Laurence Parisot, who is seeking a second term.
Candidates have until May 1 to declare the election to be held on July 1.
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The Wall Street Journal, the last hopes of the record company EMI to sell a license to distribute its music catalog in the U.S. by a competitor, have collapsed. On Wednesday, the world's number one industry, Universal has withdrawn from negotiations. Same with Sony. EMI wanted to sign an agreement for pocketing 200 million pounds by the end of its fiscal year to pay a portion of its debt at Citigroup on time.It amounts to more than 3 billion pounds.
Before deciding to license USA, EMI had planned to sell its legendary London recording studio Abbey Road, whose group owns, but it is finally decided.
EMI and Terra Firma its owner, an investment fund, will have to raise 120 million pounds by June to meet their commitments vis-?-vis Citigroup Payday Loan for Bad Credit. If they do not, Citigroup will take over the record label. In this case, the bank could sell EMI in several pieces.
The relationship between Citigroup and Terra Firma are already tense because the fund had filed a complaint against the bank for fraud in the acquisition of EMI by Terra Firma financed by Citigroup.The fund now plans to submit a new plan in late April to prevent EMI from falling under the control of the bank.
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A string football concocted by the Football League itself. This was promised on Monday Frederic Thiriez, its president, recalling, at a symposium on the pay-TV hosted by the High Council of Audiovisual (CSA) that "there was in France, 13 million people who were very interested in football. While TNT is paying in check, such an initiative could help to raise. And to clarify that "this does not mean that this channel will have exclusives on the championship L1. A conclusion that left doubts leaders of Canal + and Orange, Bertrand Meheut and Xavier Couture, who put on the table two years ago, 600 million to share its exclusive.
During the meeting between key players in the pay television several lines of force have emerged: beginning with the dedication of the largest operators in the sector to the concept of exclusivity.For Bertrand Meheut, the latter is the best way to fight against the "competition combined free television totaling 80% of the audience and for ISPs (Internet Service Provider Internet editor's note)" whose bids have been lower market share of Canal + to 47%. Moreover Bertrand Meheut recalled that his group distributed 240 channels including 50 exclusive, paid 250 million euros for publishers, 80 million euros in marketing and 200 million in recruitment costs "while" most operators telecommunications do not pay channels they broadcast on a non-exclusive "fast cash now.
For its part, Xavier Couture boss content at Orange, said that on pay-DTT "partnerships can be envisaged," including with Canal +. We intend to integrate the future of pay channels in our bouquet.However, he warned the market that the premium for exclusivity does not become a premium of eviction.
Later editors, all denounced the plight of pay channels. Thomas Valentin, vice chairman of the board of M6 has not hesitated to speak of "red alert" as regarding the TNT broadcast on pay cable and satellite. Laurent Solly, president of TF1 Digital, denounced "a time of crisis" as much publicity to the crisis that the stagnation of certain methods of distribution such as cable or satellite to the difficulty of the TNT charge.
Given all these facts, the president of CSA, Michel Boyon, promised that the regulator would give its position on DTT pay within three weeks.
Countries in the euro zone interlock gear. Unless dramatic turn of events, finance ministers Monday and Tuesday will give the final green light to a mechanism of financial support to Greece which is "already ready and mobilized if necessary," we learned from sources consistent with the European Commission.
This device – that Brussels refuses to call rescue plan – based on guarantees or loans which are bilateral granted by banks and institutions in different member states, though Greece requested. No precise figures are not advanced. But estimates are around 20 billion euros, an amount comparable to the maturities that Athens will soon meet.
Olli Rehn, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, has placed the issue in an interview with Le Figaro and four European newspapers."If Greece fails, the credibility of the entire European Union that will be permanently damaged, says he. The euro is not just a monetary arrangement. The euro falls first to the heart of European political project. "
Providing Athens to appeal to the IMF
The Commission can initiate the signing of the EU as a bailout. But in the new mechanism, it would pose the "stringent conditions" required to Greece in return for aid proposed by the capitals, the sources said. It is also the key to a firm commitment from Germany, alongside France in particular. Brussels is considered as a given, despite public misgivings expressed in Berlin.The Commission will also continue its work "tight fiscal monitoring, launched last month with the help of experts from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
This new European action, coupled with drastic budget cuts mandated by George Papandreou, is designed primarily to deter attacks against the euro. The single currency is experiencing a respite from Athens has strengthened its finances. But the timing Greek refinancing foreshadowed further shocks in April or May The mechanism also aims to provide Athens to use IMF resources, politically humiliating scenario considered by Paris and Berlin in particular.
Creating a European Monetary Fund
According to Olli Rehn, the use of Greek is the priority of a series of "key decisions" that the 16 countries in the euro area and the 27 EU discuss early next week in Brussels.This is the first floor of a rigorous device which comprises two others. First, strengthening the collective monitoring of budget deficits, desired by the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. Then, in the longer term, creating a "European Monetary Fund. The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Sch?uble, critical voices among the 16, provided support yesterday noticed this missing piece of the arsenal in Europe. But Berlin attaching strict conditions of financial discipline.
The Commissioner echoed him. "It's a critical lesson of the crisis, says he. We have put in place a rigorous and systematic monitoring of budgets throughout the euro area, including the medium term. " Olli Rehn is concerned about both the widening deficits and "national forecasts rough times" that are sent to Brussels."In France, the United Kingdom and Spain, he said, the debt burden grows heavy at a speed which requires that (these three countries) meet no later than 2011 and possibly as early as this years budget discipline accepted in common. "
Normal gas emerging. This seems to be the new motto Aschenbroich Jacques, head of the automotive supplier Valeo. In an interview with Echos on Thursday, it announced a turnaround strategy that would push the group to increase the share of investment in these countries in two thirds of the total against 50% today. In his sights: China, India, South East or Turkey. "In 2013, automobile production in mature countries is less than or equal to the pre-crisis and we have the capacity to meet demand," justify "he said. This operation therefore tantamount to "minimize their investment in mature countries.
Jacques Aschenbroich sweeping indictment of any future relocation. "Valeo produces much more in France than it sells. And our research and development is mainly based in France, "says he.It benefits the transition to dent the French model: "What strikes me is that in ten years, the average hourly cost of France became higher than in Germany. It is a concern. "
Green energy and transfer program
In addition to this new direction for investment, the director of the OEM plans to put the package on green energy. According to him, "some 70% to 80%" of product lines will be affected. The group plans to focus on "vehicle electrification" or the "micro hybrid".
In this context, Valeo does not separate himself from some activities, after selling its range of weightings for lighthouses: "We are thinking whether we should we produce our own components or purchase them, which could result of disposals in the coming months, "explains Jacques Aschenbroich.The group envisages currently no acquisition, preferring to concentrate on organic growth.
Valeo, which aims a turnover of 10 billion euros in 2013 against 7.5 billion in 2009, also started to restructure its business through the elimination of the eleven branches and the creation of four main poles. A combination of flexibility resulting 600 job cuts on the 52,000 account that the group worldwide.
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LE FIGARO. – ArcelorMittal escapes shortly after the first loss in its history. Are you satisfied with this performance?
Lakshmi Mittal. – No, although, given the circumstances, we are very far out. We achieved all our objectives of lowering costs, reducing debt, adjusting our production, and have negotiated with the various unions in the world … while 2009 was one of the most difficult years for thirty years the capitalist world. The crisis is not over. The recovery will be slow and gradual. But we managed to overcome the crisis successfully.
Using your production capacity from 50% in late 2008, to 70%. Do you anticipate this year?
Our production planning is based on the request of our customers. In 2009, only 10 of its 25 blast furnaces were in production. Now, twenty are active.There remain four or five who are temporarily stopped and restarted when demand recovers. At the end of 2010, our plants should operate at 85% of their capacity. The automotive market is expected to improve slightly over fourth quarter 2009 in Europe and strong growth in emerging countries. We organize days of innovation with our major customers. We present our new products, our development programs. They are still waiting for better products, steel both stronger and lighter, and more services.
How do you make 5 billion cost-cutting announced in 2012?
This total includes 5 billion of the savings already achieved (2.7 billion Editor's note). We have implemented many measures to improve our productivity.ArcelorMittal is a great company so we can make a "benchmark" in the group! We have implemented a continuous improvement plan which aims to save $ 30 (or 20 euros) per tonne of steel produced. There were hundreds of initiatives in this area. In 2009, we managed to save 13 euros per tonne. We still have to win 7 euros. At group level, it will represent an additional saving of 1.4 billion euros. And we can still reduce our administrative costs and expenses. This will include a specialization of production sites that could be devoted to one type of product payday advance . That does not mean that we will close …
… Or that you will continue to reduce your workforce?
The group has 35 000 employees less in 2009 than in 2008.We have plans in place starting in early retirement, voluntary severance schemes … We have nothing planned as of this year. We have just completed what was started. There is no excess production capacity in Europe. In China, yes.
You also talked about the resumption of investment.
Yes. We will resume mining projects and investment in developing countries, including Brazil. We do not expect to make further acquisitions in the steel. The cost would be higher than the expansion of existing capacity. We focus on the latter solution.
The introduction of carbon tax is a threat to your business in France?
We will be less competitive in Europe. We are in discussion with the French Government, to explain the impact of this tax on our costs.I met President Nicolas Sarkozy a few weeks ago. He says he wants a strong industry in France. We'll have to find solutions. European policy in terms of CO2 is already a burden for the European steel industry, compared to our competitors in China or India. This clearly represents an additional cost, difficult to quantify but very real. Finally, the carbon tax would be inconsistent with a strong industry. But both will have to coexist.
Chinese production of steel which starts again on the rise is a threat to your industry?
Last year, net exports of Chinese steel amounted to 10 million tonnes. This year, they should not exceed 25 million tonnes. First, because the Chinese domestic demand has picked up.Then, because Chinese steel production depends on imports of raw materials, making it less competitive for export. Finally, China mainly exported to South-Eastern Asia. Nevertheless, we are always attentive. If China's exports, it can make European prices down, it already happened before 2008. There is always a risk.
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It is a Mexican entrepreneur, owner of a chain of hotels in Cancun, which offers a Hublot watch at 700,000 euros. It is a couple of Singaporeans looking for a pied-?-terre in Paris, which is close to 10 million euros on the table for a 400 square meters overlooking the Seine. Or a Parisian lawyer who finally cracked in the Porsche 911 … The dreams of luxury customers are return guaranteed payday loans . After an abrupt end after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers followed by a year to land, rich of the planet reflected their platinum cards without false shame. The distribution in these days of record bonuses in finance in New York, London or Paris will only encourage fever after a year of dieting.
Patrick Devedjian is satisfied. The Minister responsible for the Renewal announced Tuesday in a statement that the device scrapping bonus launched by the government in a period of turbulence in the automotive sector, has affected 600,000 new vehicles purchased in 2009, one quarter of 2.268 million cars sold in the year. In November last year already, Patrick Devedjian had advanced this figure, convinced that 220,000 premium originally budgeted by the government would be largely exceeded.
The minister welcomed a device that he says has helped make 2009 the best year since 1990 "in terms of number of new registrations, the latter have actually jumped from 10.7% a year.To the Minister of Recovery, that premium has to save between 24,000 and 33,000 jobs in the automotive industry.
The French builders big winners
The scrapping bonus has mainly benefited the smaller vehicles that consume less fuel than the others. What are the French manufacturers, entrenched in this segment are the big winners of the device. They account for nearly 60% of premiums distributed.
Citro?n and 122,618 vehicles passed through the scrap bonus, closely followed by Renault (115 business card .311) And Peugeot (101,516). Dacia Group Renault (32,344) and Ford (30,908) lagged far behind, according to figures provided by the department.
Manage post premium
"The scrapping bonus has achieved all its objectives in 2009, welcomed the minister. But it said that the hardest part is yet to come.He will now have to "deal effectively" lower the amount of the premium, which began in 2010. Since 1 January, the premium case is indeed back 1,000 euros to 700 euros. It should gradually decline in the rest of the year to 500 euros on 1 July.
But manufacturers are not yet ready to release the magnet to customers. To mitigate the cuts, nearly all manufacturers provided discounts. Renault has announced it will add 300 euros compensation until the end of February. Citro?n offers 700 euro for cars over 10 years and 1,500 euros for those aged 8 to 10 years.Peugeot offers even in the context of his "very, very nice business, doubling the amount of the premium for the current increase to 1,400 euros.
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Expenses related to health care, absenteeism, business closures and premature death: the National Institute for Research and Safety and the School of Arts and Crafts feel that the cost of stress at work has reached 1.9 to 3 billion euros in France in 2007. "An evaluation minimum, the study did not take into account only one stressor," the combination of strong pressure on (the tasks performed at rapid rates and subject to deadlines) and a lack of autonomy in carrying out the work. " This would represent a third of cases of stress, excluding for example the lack of support or recognition. Moreover, only cardiovascular disease, depression and musculo-skeletal disorders have been identified as diseases resulting from stress.
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