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The United Kingdom is concerned that a boomerang effect will weaken his come back. On January 1, VAT is in fact rise to 17.5%, having been exceptionally lowered to 15% for a year to boost consumption. Economists from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think again increase the VAT rate could be "stalling a recovery in its infancy."
The Center for Economic Research, which called in July 2008 a decrease of 5% tax, advance that have prolonged the VAT at 15% until July 2010. Joerg Radeke, economist at CEBR, said that the consumer will still need a boost in the first half. Inflation should indeed start rising, exceeding the 3%, which should lead to a decrease of 0.7% of household spending.In 2010, consumption would fall by 0.2%, according to economist.
The test balances
The effects of the rise in VAT rates could soon be visible through balances. If the high shopping season has started on the Bleeding Edge, economists fear it is only a deadweight, consumers rushing to the shelves before the tax goes back to 17.5 %. "They certainly have some early purchases in November and December," Analysis Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, senior economist at BNP Paribas.
The decline in consumption expected in early 2010 should still be written off by the pricing of retail giants such as Tesco. The largest British retail group has decided not to pass on the rising rate of VAT on certain non-food products.This should enable consumers to save another 12 million pounds (13.4 million euros), according to the distributor. The Sainsbury and Home Retail, among others, have also decided to sacrifice their margins.
Beneficial effects difficult to measure
In total, J?rg Radeke the CEBR believes that the rise in VAT rates, premature, and likely to "wipe out most of the benefits had been reduced fee. Still, it is difficult to estimate what were these "benefits" in 2009. According to the CEBR, reduced VAT rates contributed 0.5% to growth of British GDP.
The effect has not been miraculous. While passing the reduced rate, in the first quarter of 2009, "Private consumption fell 1.5% from fourth quarter of 2008, after a similar decline over the previous period," said Caroline Newhouse-Cohen.A decrease which stabilized until July. But economists agree that even if the measure has cost 4.3 billion pounds (4.8 billion euros) to the Treasury, the economic situation would have been worse without it.
When the SGC prepares to launch a takeover market … the powerful Caisse centrale social activities (CCAS) of electricity and gas industries, the equivalent of a supercomit? company EDF and GDF, managed by the communist union , the well would hand over the Compagnie Internationale Andre Trigano (CIAT), publicly traded company valued over 80 million euros. The company, better known under its consumer brand Camp?ole, is a specialist camping and tent.
The operation should be discussed at the Board of Directors of the CCAS Wednesday. It creates a stir internally. One branch of the CGT, the CGT union Ectam-Staff headquarters EDF and social organizations, objects."The case is disproportionate," denounces the union in a statement.
The central fund social activities is the biggest works of France, with a budget of nearly half a billion euros and over 3 000 permanent employees. Its management has been pinned in the past by the Court of Auditors. As part of its operations in recreation for employees of EDF and GDF, it already manages 60,000 beds in holiday resorts, including 48 000 of which he owns. By placing hands on the Trigano group, it would greatly enhance its ability to host. To become the first player in the sector. The CIAT is the leader in three-star campsite with 43 sites and 14 000 places, which would correspond to about 72 000 beds. It also has a second activity: the manufacture of tents and canvas bungalows.In total, the company achieved a turnover of 43 million euros last year and suffered a loss of nearly one million.
Several applications
The story begins at the time of the first paid leave, with a workshop created by Raymond tarpaulins Trigano, father of Andrew, who is developing the "triganette, a family tent where you can stand. Andrew continues the adventure after the war, while his brother Gilbert resumed Club Mediterranee, which leases its tents in the family business.
The founder and his family still control over 30% stake in the company whose majority shareholder is the fund managed by Groupama Acto. Its Listed raises other applications than the CCAS. Bernard Laporte is interested too, so that Promeo, which owns the Village Family camping.
Good news: industry recruits even in this difficult year. This year, there should be about 50,000 recruits. The dual is scheduled for next year and years to follow. "Look, there is no new jobs, warned Frederic Saint Geours, president of L'Union des Industries et M?tiers de la M?tallurgie (UIMM), but the renewal of generations."
Bad news: the industry has difficulty recruiting. To attract young, the UIMM launches communication campaign entitled "It is done by performing." Meanwhile, the UIMM put in place a mechanism to facilitate contracts and apprenticeship. Large companies are better equipped than small to provide training. Or, are smaller companies that have the greatest needs "summarizes Frederic Saint-Geours.The board therefore UIMM on a course of learning that take place in a large company with prospects of employment with a subcontractor or other entity of the same pool of jobs.
Financial support for industrial
The UIMM has also set up three funds, with respectively 10, 20 and 50 million euros and are for financial
– Innovation in the industry,
– Employment in industry
– SME development.
This may include funds allocated equity loans to companies that are struggling to complete financing for investments or developments.
The UIMM represents 45,000 businesses employing 1.8 million employees. "There is no strong economy without strong industry," said Frederic Saint-Geours.85% of R & D expenditures in France are in industry, 75% of researchers and developers working for industry and 85% of French exports are products made from industry.
Gold, placing anti-crisis par excellence, in senators' crosshairs. Tenants of the Palais du Luxembourg in fact want to submit the sales of precious metals – gold, but silver jewelry and works of art to the general social contribution (CSG), revealed Thursday "Le Parisien". Supported by the Social Affairs Committee, but considered "difficult to implement technically" by the government, this new tax, which should be passed in the day aims to bridge the deficit in Social Security. In detail, if the measure is adopted as from 1 January next year, each transaction will be taxed to the tune of 8.2%. For example, the sale of a jewel worth 200 euros, Social Security will receive 16 euros CSG. With this new tax, the senators hope to get a "few million" each year.
Paris, Palais des congr?s. This Thursday, the huge amphitheater, Pierre Gadonneix presided as expected its last general meeting of shareholders of EDF. Re-elected director of the group with 96.5% of the votes, Henri Proglio, already designated by the State, has been inducted as the new chairman of EDF. His appointment should be approved definitively by the Council of Ministers on 25 November. The person will thus serve as head of the electrical lights at the end of the month.
Henri Proglio Photo credits: AFP
The financial crisis has undoubtedly reduced the weight of the United States and Europe to Asia. Suddenly, the latter will take the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the world.
From this Friday until Sunday evening, leaders of ten ASEAN countries (Association of the South-Eastern Asia) met in Thailand. They are joined this morning by China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia. Countries whose recovery from crisis is much faster than in the West and for many of them are already preparing to abandon their recovery plans.
All concerned now the weak dollar, which they provide relief whenever necessary.And none of them has any interest in seeing the U.S. financial system to deteriorate, while exports remain the primary engine of growth.
"Stress tests" for Chinese banks
But the crisis was already moving lines. The model was that the United States absorb massive exports to Asia is in the process of shifting. In China and India, consumption explodes and is progressively taking over from the American buyer. ASEAN and its 600 million consumers will take over.
However, to enjoy the recovery, Asia should not repeat the mistakes of the Americans. Beijing has understood that today called for Chinese banks to conduct stress tests, stress tests each quarter to better manage credit and liquidity supply in the country.
It must also strengthen its cohesion.If in ten years exports of ASEAN have been multiplied by three, 1 700 billion, and its trade with China by ten, the regional bloc to just build a true economic community. Theoretically scheduled for 2015, it would then be extended to China, South Korea and Japan.
A dream which currently faces the political weakness of ASEAN. Nobody can believe the Committee on Human Rights that it has put in place, while Burma is a dictatorship where every opponent is going to jail and that Laos and Vietnam are two blocks Communists closed.
But Asia is a force. She has already lived through the 1998 crisis and emerged stronger than before.
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
"Tokyo is seeking a new motor recovery
Yogurt machine is restarted. Thanks to price cuts, promotions and new standards more accessible, sales of Danone's dairy products rose 7% in volume in the third quarter. It's the largest increase since mid-2007.
So far, Danone had mostly favored the move upmarket with its brands Activia, Actimel and Danacol and rate increases. These were also made compulsory by the soaring price of milk. But the crisis had led to an alarming decline in volumes last year. In January, the group has initiated a program called reset ( "reset"). To boost volumes, each subsidiary has revised its product positioning and pricing in each of its markets (yoghurt, water, infant nutrition and medical nutrition).
Franck Riboud, Danone's boss has welcomed the success of these "operational adjustments."We did not only correct, but have been effective and rapid implementation, said without false modesty, the CEO. We have completed the repositioning of our products before the end of the year. "
A year ago, Danone was advised that because of the deteriorating economy, growing its sales in 2009 would be "less than a few points" in its medium-term target of between 8 and + + 10%. According to details made this Friday, the group table in fact now an annual growth of 2.8%.
While this is a very sharp slowdown in growth of sales, Danone has proven its ability to react and managed to accelerate the pace since January.In the third quarter, all regions are growing, even Europe, which was down in the first half.
Volvic and Evian in progress
Above all, "we gained market share in the three quarters of our markets," insists Peter Andre T?risse, the CFO. He also noted that milk prices would increase, "but return to significant increases in 2008." Danone may therefore increase some of its prices, "while remaining competitive."
Other good news: the return to form of the bottled water division, which is experiencing its strongest growth since early 2008. "Danone has its strong presence in Asia, the area that draws economic recovery," said Lee Linthium, head of research for Euromonitor.The institute predicts that sales of bottled water will increase by 8% in Asia this year, thanks to economic recovery in urban areas, where consumption of these products is higher.
Even in developed countries, Danone waters are rising again this summer, especially in France, the United Kingdom and Germany. With the impact of weather, but not only. "The sales made under Volvic promotion grew by 40%," says one Danone. In recent weeks, the promotion efforts made on Evian, the brand's flagship division, are even more important. Here again, priority is given to the volumes to boost sales.
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