Archive for the 'economics' Category
Nearly eight billion dollars. Or nearly 6 billion euros. In one week, traders and hedge-funds (hedge funds seeking higher returns, in particular through the options) were initiated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, according to the online edition of the Financial Times on Monday evening. Investors have decided to take so-called short positions on the euro, that is to say, bet down on the currency. In total, these investments "shorts" are a massive $ 7.6 billion, according to the website of the newspaper, stating that this is the first time such a sum is committed to bet on falling the single European currency.
The reason for this change of strategy: the loss of confidence in the euro, which no longer seems able to resist the contagion of the Greek debt on other European countries.Greece is central to the nervousness of financial markets, both on the Old Continent as the other major stock exchanges worldwide. And worries extend to serious budget situations Spanish and Portuguese.
Yesterday, Monday, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance of Spain, and José Manuel Campa, his deputy, flew to London to allay fears: They reiterated their goal of reducing by 3% budget deficit by 2013. It reached 11.4% of GDP in 2009.
The euro has won almost 10% in two months
On Tuesday, around 8:30 am, the euro regained some color since last night, going above 1.37 euros at 1.3728 dollar guaranteed approval cash loans . On Monday, the European single currency remained broadly under that threshold.There is still a week against the euro was trading more than 1.4 dollar.
The dégrindolage actually started last December. The euro was trading at nearly even $ 1.51. It is almost 10% more than two months later. Just this last month of 2009, the euro has won nearly 5%, losing 30 days that the currency had taken three months to win.
By touching a low at 1.3585 euros February 5, the euro has regained its level in May 2009 …. and August 2007.
For some analysts, the slide is not over, and the euro could well return to the threshold of 1.25 dollars, amid U.S. growth stronger than expected.
The political spotlight
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Ben Bernake, will explain why the strategy for ending the crisis that has put in place.Any speech that would imply a monetary tightening will cause the wrath of the financial markets.
Then, next Thursday, it was the turn of Europe to be in the limelight, with the meeting of heads of state of the eurozone.
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After the sharp market downturn in Paris last weekend, with the Cac 40 lost nearly 7% in 48 hours, optimism is in order at the beginning of the week Award paris.le CAC 40 is up 0.89% to 3595 points.
On the macroeconomic front, gross domestic product (GDP) of France is expected to grow by 0.5% in first quarter 2010, according to a first estimate of the Banque de France (BdF) on Monday.
The latest forecast from the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) published December 17, the economic recovery in France will confirm in early 2010 but will be "laborious and delicate, with a growth of around 0.3 % to 0.4% per quarter until midyear.
The government recently revised upward its growth forecast for this year, rose 0.75% to 1.4% in the revised budget.
INSEE has published Friday its first figures on French growth in the last quarter of 2009. The government forecasts a GDP drop of 2.25% over the last year.
The detailed values to follow.
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The French group displays and street furniture, JCDecaux, released on Thursday its sales in 2009, amounting to 1, 92 billion euros, down 11.5% compared to 2008.
This figure reflects the sharp drop in advertising business, the more cyclical activity of the group and the only fully established in Europe. She has indeed recorded a decline in organic sales of 16.1%. Activities Furniture Urban Transport and proved somewhat more resistant, their respective sales down 12.1% to 934 million euros and 6.3% to 589.6 million euros. Organic growth at constant scope and exchange rates, amounted to -10.9%, while the group expected a decline of 12.5%.
"The reduction in advertising budgets and a strong pressure on prices led to a decline in global advertising market, including internet, expected around 10%," said Jean-Francois Decaux, CEO and Co-CEO JCDecaux.
2009 the worst year since 1964
The annual report for France, compiled Wednesday by Kantar Media Institute, revealed growth "historically low" advertising market (+1.4%), outdoor (posters and street furniture) is the medium most affected (-8.7%).
In the fourth quarter, sales fell by 7.2% to 561.6 million euros. A perimeter and constant exchange rates the growth was -4.9%.
"2009 is undoubtedly the toughest year that JCDecaux has faced since the inception of the company in 1964, said Jean-Francois Decaux instant payday loan . The reduction in advertising budgets and a strong pressure on prices led to a decline in global advertising market, including on-line, expected around 10%.
Sales in Asia and North America most resistant
Europe, excluding France and the United Kingdom, presented a decrease in turnover from 16.7% to 650.9 million euros. La France has decreased its turnover by 8.7%, despite a difficult advertising environment and a strong performance in 2008 (organic growth of 4.8%).
The United Kingdom is the area that experienced the largest decline in fiscal 2009 (-25.5%), improving economic conditions, however, clearly in the fourth quarter. Asia-Pacific and North America have been stronger with declines of 6.7% to 300.9 million euros and 6.5% to 146.2 million euros.
"The group has benefited in the fourth quarter with a slight recovery in advertising spending and increased its exposure to emerging markets. The more positive view of advertisers found on some markets in September, seems to continue in the first quarter of this year. This allows us to be, for now, confident in the ability of JCDecaux to reach a rate of positive organic growth in the first quarter of 2010, "concludes Jean-François Decaux.
The annual results 2009 JC Decaux will be published pre-market March 10, 2010.
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Patrick Devedjian is satisfied. The Minister responsible for the Renewal announced Tuesday in a statement that the device scrapping bonus launched by the government in a period of turbulence in the automotive sector, has affected 600,000 new vehicles purchased in 2009, one quarter of 2.268 million cars sold in the year. In November last year already, Patrick Devedjian had advanced this figure, convinced that 220,000 premium originally budgeted by the government would be largely exceeded.
The minister welcomed a device that he says has helped make 2009 the best year since 1990 "in terms of number of new registrations, the latter have actually jumped from 10.7% a year.To the Minister of Recovery, that premium has to save between 24,000 and 33,000 jobs in the automotive industry.
The French builders big winners
The scrapping bonus has mainly benefited the smaller vehicles that consume less fuel than the others. What are the French manufacturers, entrenched in this segment are the big winners of the device. They account for nearly 60% of premiums distributed.
Citroën and 122,618 vehicles passed through the scrap bonus, closely followed by Renault (115 business card .311) And Peugeot (101,516). Dacia Group Renault (32,344) and Ford (30,908) lagged far behind, according to figures provided by the department.
Manage post premium
"The scrapping bonus has achieved all its objectives in 2009, welcomed the minister. But it said that the hardest part is yet to come.He will now have to "deal effectively" lower the amount of the premium, which began in 2010. Since 1 January, the premium case is indeed back 1,000 euros to 700 euros. It should gradually decline in the rest of the year to 500 euros on 1 July.
But manufacturers are not yet ready to release the magnet to customers. To mitigate the cuts, nearly all manufacturers provided discounts. Renault has announced it will add 300 euros compensation until the end of February. Citroën offers 700 euro for cars over 10 years and 1,500 euros for those aged 8 to 10 years.Peugeot offers even in the context of his "very, very nice business, doubling the amount of the premium for the current increase to 1,400 euros.
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In an aviation context depressed, ATR is holding its own game in 2009, the Toulouse-based company specializing in the construction of regional aircraft has recorded 40 firm orders and 17 options. It has delivered 54 aircraft. She has on order 136 planes today, representing a workload of more than two years. 43% of these orders relate to its new range, the ATR-42 600 and ATR-72 600.
During this same year 2009, the Spanish airline Air Nostrum and Royal Air Morocco were among its largest customers, with respectively 10 and 6 devices. The reason ATR through the crisis with such ease is the design of its aircraft, which consume 40% less fuel than jets.
A given that airlines are very sensitive. The market share in turboprop regional aircraft can only increase.In 2009 the turnover of ATR have been $ 1.4 billion, an increase of 7% over 2008. A record.
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The gross public debt (government, social security and local authorities) continues to rise. At the end of the third quarter, gross debt under the Maastricht amounted to 1457.4 billion, up from 29.4 billion the previous quarter, according to figures published by INSEE on Tuesday. "Expressed as a percentage of GDP, it is approximately 75.8%, up 1.9 points," says the National Institute of Statistics. In the second quarter, the debt had reached 73.9% of GDP.
The increase over the period, less than that observed in the second quarter (61.1 billion euros), was driven in particular by the increase in debt of the state. To finance the budget deficit, the state has cut its debt of 23.4 billion euros.The debt has also funded a stake in the Company making state participation in a French bank, Crédit Agricole 3 billion, INSEE said.
The social security funds have also contributed to the increase in gross public debt to the tune of 5.9 billion euros, "particularly as a result of increased indebtedness of the ACOSS (3, 9 billion euros), "details the INSEE.
The government has included in his bill to finance the debt was still progress to 77.9% of GDP at the end of the year. In 2010, it expects debt to 84% of GDP, without taking into account the large loan.
Moreover, net public debt, which includes cash and short-term is highest increase over the period, the gross debt.It was heavy with 57.1 billion euros over the second quarter, rising late September to 1331.5 billion. In case a "sharp decrease in cash of the State (-28.3 billion), returning to a level close to that of a year ago," said INSEE.
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Christine Lagarde put an end to speculation. On leaving the Council of Ministers on Wednesday, Minister of Economy announced that the bonuses paid in France by the banks for the year 2009 will be taxed at 50% from 27,500 euros. The France decides to follow the same model announced last week by the British government.
"This is a proposal had been President of the Republic August 25 last, much has campaigned for it to be internationally accepted. Now a British proposal and French and I will defend to Parliament in January, "said the minister.
Christine Lagarde also suggested that this "tax exceptional exceptional circumstances" would not be renewed. Information that had already been raised in the common platform of Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, published by the Wall Street Journal.The measure should be included in a draft supplementary budget.
According Bercy, between 2,000 and 3,000 traders will be affected.
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China moves away from deflation. With a rise in the index of consumer prices for the first time since January (0.6% in November, a year), the figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics announced the end of a deflationary movement, or at least its slowdown. Of the first eleven months of the year, the index remains in negative territory -0.9%.
This index, which goes into the green could bring the Chinese government economists to rethink the current monetary policy is highly flexible to support the recovery.
Industrial production for its share jumped 19.2% yoy in November, after rising 16.1% in October.Jing Ulrich of JPMorgan said that "industrial activity will continue to grow thanks to strong domestic demand and improving exports.
With 19.09 billion dollars more in November, the trade surplus since the beginning of the year totaled 177.96 billion. Regarding investment in fixed assets in urban China, they rose 32.1% year on year between January and November, against 26.8% over the same period of 2008, according to NBS figures.
In November 2008, before the Chinese government launched an ambitious plan to revive the economy on some 400 billion euros of expenditure, particularly in large infrastructure projects.For many economists, the recovery of activity, coupled with rising exports and strong growth in Chinese gross domestic product in 2009, could lead to an appreciation of the yuan in 2010.
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Paris, Palais des congrès. This Thursday, the huge amphitheater, Pierre Gadonneix presided as expected its last general meeting of shareholders of EDF. Re-elected director of the group with 96.5% of the votes, Henri Proglio, already designated by the State, has been inducted as the new chairman of EDF. His appointment should be approved definitively by the Council of Ministers on 25 November. The person will thus serve as head of the electrical lights at the end of the month.
Henri Proglio Photo credits: AFP
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Before Christmas is the time for chocolate. While the cocoa harvest in full swing, the courses of the famous bean reach new levels. In New York, a ton is trading at historical prices, around 3 390 dollars per tonne, as in London where 2 150 pounds per tonne have been exceeded. A steep climb in a short time.
"In the lull of summer, we were only 1 400 pounds per tonne. The market has changed dramatically since the funds are interested. It is not uncommon to see variations of 8% in one day, "says Jean-Paul Burrus, president of Salpa family group, owner of Chocolatier La Marquise de Sevigne. "Previously, that happened only when the coup. But now, the market became very volatile and there are more rules.We need to cover by buying futures a year, "says the businessman who uses each year 1 000 tonnes of cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire, Trinidad or Venezuela.
Global consumption is around 3 million tonnes per year, representing 3 to 4 billion euros turnover per year. What makes cocoa the third tropical agricultural commodity exchanged most, behind sugar and coffee.
Several factors explain the high rating current cocoa prices. First of growing speculation. "Since late August, there is renewed interest in risky markets and hence for agricultural commodities, said Vincent Geiger COUTIER at New Edge. They have the attraction of funds, because they represent a good bulwark against the inflationary pressures in a recovery scenario and good coverage on the foreign exchange market.The currency in which they are denominated, the dollar and the pound collapsed. "
Tensions on the course
In addition, there are factors specific to the cocoa market. "For five days, a strike is raging in Côte d'Ivoire, the largest producer with alone one third of the world's cocoa, and it is unclear whether the country will produce the psychological threshold of one million tonnes. Enough reason for a little more tension on the course.
Demand side is the explosion. Celebrations New Year approaching. "We sell more than half of our chocolates at Christmas," said Jean-Paul Burrus. Furthermore, new players entered the market with a consumption curve exponentially. "With rising living standards, demand is increasing in China and India," says Vincent Geiger.In Europe, sales also rose, perhaps because of the crisis, chocolate is considered by many as the best antidepressant!
In fifteen years, the French consumption has almost doubled from 4 to 7.5 kilograms per year per capita. It is still a few bars of Swiss, European champions with 11 kg. But ahead of Italy and Spain, with only two kilos.
Finally, the greedy have to fear a surge in prices of the tablet or small box? Hard to say, for Vincent Geiger. This will vary from one industry to another, as was more or less well covered against the higher prices for financial instruments and is ready or not to trim its margins. Strategies very secret. The Marquise de Sevigne excludes any increase in the short term, being forearmed against this risk.In addition, prices are fixed for a long time for some commands, such as works councils.
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