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Concerns over the debts of European resurface. Rating agency Standard & Poor's considers debt now Ireland's most risky and has degraded the country's rating by one notch to "AA" to "AA-" (the fourth on a scale of 22). To make matters worse, the agency has placed the country under "negative watch", implying that a further revision of the note was not excluded in the medium term.
More than the Irish government's ability to reduce deficits, it is the health of the banking system of the island that worries Standard & Poor's. The financial situation worse than expected some institutions weigh on public finances. "The cost of the projected budgetary support by the Irish financial sector in the country has considerably increased compared to our initial estimates," Xinhua, which also supports the Irish strategy.
On 10 August the European Commission has authorized the Irish government to urgently inject 8.6 billion euros in the capital of Anglo Irish Bank. A sum that could be raised to 10 billion. "Given the recent announcement of new capital injections in the Anglo Irish Bank, our latest projections show that Ireland's public debt will increase to 113% of GDP in 2012, argued Standard & Poor's . "This is well above projected levels for countries that enjoy the same rating level, such as Belgium or Spain."
Stress tests are too soft
Ireland has reacted strongly after the decision to Standard & Poor's. The analysis of the agency "relies heavily on an extreme estimate of the cost of recapitalizing banks 50 billion euros, has criticized the agency managing the public debt."We believe that this approach is biased."
Investors, however, expected a further deterioration of the country score. "The cost of insurance against default risk of the Irish debt (or CDS for" Credit default swap) has recently increased in the markets, the degradation is therefore a confirmation that the markets have already seen, " Otis Casey remark, Vice President of Markit financial information agency.
For Glenn Maguire, chief economist at Societe Generale CIB, degradation of the note Irish and Anglo Irish Bank situation revives debate on European bank stress tests. The decision by Standard & Poor's "implies that" stress tests "should be more frequent and more stressful …" according to the economist.The European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, has also suggested Tuesday that these operations could be organized more often.
In response to the deterioration of the Irish notes, interest rates on debt leapt on Wednesday morning. By midmorning, the rate at ten years Irish reached 5.414%, 5.358% on Tuesday night against the closure. In its wake, the rates in Spain and Greece in particular rose. Markets also eagerly awaited the results of a bond issue at 6 Portuguese and 10 years started in the morning.
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A month after the European Union, the United States have announced they are appealing the ruling last June by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the dispute between Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, Boeing on public subsidies to the European manufacturer. Although the United States and the U.S. aircraft manufacturer had considered the conviction of the European Union by the WTO as a "great victory lawful," they were only half satisfied. "The Judgement of June was a very important victory for employees in the aeronautics and helped make it more fair competition for them.However, the Dispute Settlement Body has made two errors, and the United States rely on these findings, "said the spokesman for the USTR, Nefeterius McPherson.
Overseas, we accepted fact that the aid granted to Airbus for forty years "was not part of an ongoing program to assist" state services of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
The United States does not intend to stop there, nor the European Commission, which requested from July 21 "corrections or clarifications" on seven points. Brussels rejects such reimbursable advances for Germany, Spain and Great Britain are "export subsidies", as held by the WTO in June.The WTO had made a decision on June 30 that gave largely due to a complaint filed by the United States in 2004.
The trial's verdict on the aid given to Airbus will not be made until three months, the WTO has decided to extend the treatment of Appeal of the European aircraft manufacturer. Moreover, the WTO must also rule on a complaint of Airbus against Boeing for the same reasons for subsidies. The final decision could be made in September.
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LE FIGARO. – How do you analyze the performance of Arkema?
Thierry LE HENAFF. – Our EBITDA in the second quarter is by far the best performance we've ever done. This shows the transformation of the company, whose effects had been masked by the crisis. Our net income in the quarter was equal to that recorded on all our best year in 2007. Arkema has turned a corner. We change category. After a sharp rebound in the first quarter, we have found in the second quarter activity level relatively close to its pre-crisis. Our turnover has increased by 27% at constant, a rate comparable to the leaders of the chemical industry.
What are the springs of your performance?
The chemical industry reflects developments in the global economy. We followed four strategic since 2005.Improving our competitiveness first. Late 2010, we have reduced our fixed costs by up to 10% of turnover, or 600 million euros in savings. Then, we placed more on Asia. We benefit from growth in China, where we have invested 300 million euros in a few years. Our goal is to achieve over 10% of our sales in this country in 2014, against 6% today. Third axis of our strategy, we have developed innovations in sustainable development and high performance materials. We draw therefore from the growing interest in photovoltaics, polymers used in automotive, new energy, lithium-ion batteries … Last Axis: the acquisitions to improve our business portfolio.We made a number of acquisitions in crisis, price crisis.
Is the crisis behind it?
Yes. 2007 and 2008 were years of historically high for the chemical sector. We got back on activity levels of 2005 and 2006, with the exception of the construction sector, for which we must remain attentive. We are generally confident about the rest of the year. There is still no recovery in the construction, some 15 of our trades eventually go less well, such as cars, but we will see an improvement on others, such as oil and gas.
Your French operations are profitable?
France is the country where we are least profitable. We have suffered greatly in 2009. This year is better, but there is still a gap compared to other countries. There is still work to do to improve our competitiveness.We must nevertheless note that we are making 50-60% of our investment in France.
The official trading hours may be difficult for Amazon Friday. In after market trading Thursday, the securities are traded on the internet provider declined by almost 15% to 102.55 dollars. After the official closure of Wall Street, Amazon has posted results that disappointed investors.
Of course, earnings rose 45% for its second quarter to 207 million or 45 cents per share. But analysts had predicted earnings of 53 cents per share.As for sales, Amazon will display a turnover of 6.57 billion, exceeding expectations (6.54 billion).
Operating profit rose 71% to 270 million but there is also far from the consensus (320 million estimated).
For the current quarter, Amazon provides billings between 6.9 and 7.6 billion dollars of bad credit payday advance. The operating profit should be between 210 and 310 million showing a margin of 3 to 4% The analysts' estimates were much higher: 361 million expected to be a margin of 5%.
In a statement, Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of the site says, "We see rapid growth in sales of Kindle, Amazon web services, sales to third parties and retail.""Over the last twelve months, customers worldwide have ordered from their mobile device for over $ 1 billion worth of Amazon," says Jeff Bezos still, he was confident in the potential of Tablet PCs, like the Kindle or the 'iPad, to "become a vehicle extra" sales.
The number of reports of providers of solidarity tax on wealth (ISF) and the expected revenues are up slightly over 2008, with nearly 562,000 returns, according to figures released Wednesday by the Budget Ministry.
In early July, the number of Declarations owe ISF stands at nearly 562,000, against 539,000 the same day last year, and the amount of total tax amounts reported this year 3.29 million against 3.13 million during the same period in 2009.
"These initial results on TFR must be confirmed by definitive and comprehensive statistics to be established in early 2011, the ministry said in a statement.
Moreover, the tax cuts provided by law for labor, employment and purchasing power increased by 16.7%, representing 838 million euros against 718 million in 2009, for a total reductions of 140,043 for investment in SMEs (small and medium enterprise) or donation to a charitable body (102.000 cuts $ 718 million in 2009).More than 1.1 billion euros have been invested in the equity of SMEs, according Bercy.
On the ground of appeal as that of growth, France is doing "less bad" than its main competitors. It is the belief of the French Agency for International Investment (AFII), which on Monday published its panel's attractiveness in 2010, in collaboration with the Center for Strategic Analysis (CAS), Treasury and Datar. While foreign direct investment last year saw a decline of 41% in developed countries, they have fallen "only" 35% in France.
The Hexagon's interest to maintain this advantage: the French subsidiaries of foreign groups provide more than 2.5 million jobs, 20% of R & D and almost 40% of these exports are linked to foreign establishments.And since 2007, when the crisis was suffering its effects, new investment decisions by foreign companies will be permitted to "maintain or create approximately 30,000 jobs" each year.
"Beware the gap between what the economic data and leave out the perception of foreign investors," said Monday David Appia, president of the AFII. This paper attempts to twist the particular blow to conventional wisdom: that France would not fiscally attractive to businesses. "People often think that taxation in France is a weak point but in reality the situation is more complex," said Director General of CAS, Vincent Chriqui bad credit pay day loans.It must be determined "globally", argue the AFII and CAS.
"Strong signals"
The tax can not be reduced to the corporate tax (IS). "The effective tax burden on enterprises in France is much lower than the nominal rate of the SI would suggest," says the report. It must also consider the tax base and exemptions. Ultimately, if we look at the revenue of the IS reported to EBITDA, "France is in a better position, with a tax rate of approximately 17% of profits." Dietary improvements reserved for impatriate removing the ceiling of the research tax credit – now "the strongest incentive to Europe" – and the removal of business tax on productive investments also "sent a strong signal towards investors foreigners.
More generally, France is ranked fifth in the world for business location costs (employment, installation, transportation, taxes, equipment and energy) and one in Europe, the document stresses the AFII, which compiles data and existing rankings, making comparisons between France and eleven other neighboring countries.
"If we do not change policy, we will in the wall." Jacques Attali, President of PlanetFinance and author of a book entitled "All ruined in ten years? Public debt: the last chance "does not beat around the bush. After a week when financial markets are worried about the emergence of a new recession, former adviser to Francois Mitterrand and confirms that the government must halt the rise in public debt. And for this, a policy of austerity. "We're on the brink of a global deflation as it has ever seen for a century and a half," he said.
In alarm that has not failed to react as President of the European Central Bank (ECB). "I do not think the risk of a recession.Globally, it is clear that we are in a recovery phase, confirmed particularly in the emerging world, but also in the industrialized world, "said Jean-Claude Trichet. That did not stop to be careful. "Growth is not written in the industrialized world, it depends on the ability of countries to strengthen the confidence of households, firms and enterprises," he says.
Grand European loan
Europe is not doomed to stagnation. According to economists, big bosses and politicians gathered in Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum for the Old Continent has to reform, reduce deficits and build on innovation. "Without policy change, the growth potential of Europe for the next ten years will be around 1.3% to 1.5% per year.We would then take years to regain the levels of unemployment pre-crisis, "says economist Christian de Boissieu.
For this, the Circle of economists in favor of a large loan eueuropéen, referring to the one established last year by Nicolas Sarkozy. The idea is, like its sister French, invest in innovation, green technology or education. "Innovation and services are crucial. The deindustrialization of the United States had no areas of very high technology, because they have attracted the intelligence world, "says Louis Welsh, president of EADS.
"Place of Culture and Tourism
The question is how to articulate these priorities, fiscal consolidation and sustaining growth -. Hence the idea of an overhaul of EU policies.In short, Europe must "change the growth model," according to former Prime Minister Alain Juppe. "The EU lacks coherence between its short and medium term focus on reducing deficits, and the long term that seeks to promote investment in the knowledge economy," says economist Agnes Benassy-Quere.
Far from being able to display growth rates comparable to those of emerging countries, Europe has every interest to agree on next steps. Otherwise it will be reduced to "a place of culture and tourism," says Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, President of Circle of economists.
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Fiercely negotiated three days in Toronto, the draft statement of the G20 should offend anyone. If it includes the rigorous growth strategy, it also warns against excessive austerity. Still as unpopular worldwide, the tax credit is mentioned by the G20 as a means available to states to pass through to the banks of the crisis mess. The 28 pages of draft final declaration, which obtained a copy of Figaro, operate a subtle synthesis between European and American positions.
Angela Merkel can boast of having imposed the virtues of fiscal discipline at the highest level. But to the relief of Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, she has not transformed the G20 summit of austerity."Recent events show the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to implement measures to consolidate budget spread over time, conducive to growth, and differentiated according to country and national circumstances," says the One of the phrases most discussed compromise.
Determined to make growth "priority" of the G20, the United States got to place the term "recovery" prominently in the declaration, a challenge, says a trader. "We need to let it work through our plans to consolidate fiscal stimulus recovery," said the G20 as well. "Adjustments in simultaneous biggest countries could undermine the recovery," it added.
Disagreement over the top on bank charges
Canada has not really managed to impose a stability pact worldwide."Advanced economies have pledged to take measures to consolidate budgetary decline by at least half the deficit by 2013, and stabilize or reduce the debt / GDP ratio by 2016, said the G20. Nothing that does very afraid of the euro area, or even France, which has promised to reduce its deficit to 3% in 2013. The White House, meanwhile, did not wait for the G20 to commit to reducing the U.S. budget deficit by half in 2013 to return to deficits of 3% in 2015.
If the disagreement at the summit endorsed the tax credit, due to strong opposition from Canada to Australia, but also emerging countries (China, India, Russia), the G20 mention the tax as an option for countries seeking to save public money in any future banking crisis.Defended by the IMF, the tax would be adjusted to take the risk profile of financial institutions.
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The purchasing power has registered a decline of 0.1%.
In the U.S., the third estimate of GDP is known to 14:30.
Banks up
As for values, Credit Agricole (-1.7%) Societe Generale (1.4%) BNP Paribas (+1.1%) and Axa (1.32%) appear at the top of the charts of best performance of the CAC 40, behind Vivendu which grimpede 1.7% to 17.5 euros.
In contrast, the values cars are worth, including Peugeot plir 0.67%, Renault, 0.36%, 0.6% Michelin. Construction is bad too, with Lafarge (-0.96%), largest decline, and Saint-Gobain (-0.25%).
Latecoère: 2.56% to 6 euros According to Le Figaro, the aerospace supplier will propose to its shareholders on Friday, meeting in General Assembly, the free allocation of share purchase warrants (BSA) in 2012.
The EDF Group postponed its decision to invest in an LNG terminal in Dunkirk (Northern), said Thursday a spokesman for the group. This terminal was supposed to compensate for some job losses related to the closure of the refinery from Total.
Computer Services sector companies might respond to better than expected quarterly results announced Thursday evening by Accenture. The Group's net profit stood at 564 million dollars (457 million euros), or $ 0.73 per share against 537 million ($ 0.68 per share) a year ago and $ 0.69 expected by Wall Street.
Alstom: -0.5% to 38.3 euros French industrial group on Thursday launched a U.S. production plant turbines, especially for nuclear power generation, for which he has invested about $ 300 million, according to a statement.
He has held eight weeks. The CEO of BP, Tony Hayward, should hand over the management of the oil spill from the Gulf of Mexico to another group leader, Robert Dudley. The ad, albeit tempered by a spokesman for the moment, was made by Carl-Henric Svanberg, president of the group, during an interview with Sky News on Friday. "He went there just after the explosion. It will now transmit the management operations on a day-to-day to Robert Dudley, "he said.
Robert Dudley, a member of the board of directors of the group is in charge of operations in the Americas and Asia. Tony Hayward had already chosen earlier this month to lead a team to manage, with the authorities, long-term consequences of the spill after it had ceased.
A president on Platter
According to several analysts, heads could also fall after the U.S. congressional hearings. Observers say that Tony Hayward was well out of the question-answer session with U.S. lawmakers. The announcement of the creation of a fund of 20 billion dollars had quieted some of the fears of investors. "The provision of Tony Hayward has not been great but it could have been worse. As a shareholder, our priority was to see that all energies were concentrated on repairing the broken sink, "said anonymously to Reuters one of the ten largest shareholders of the group.
The Director General could therefore keep his job. It might be different from President Carl-Henric Svanberg."We believe Tony Hayward is doing all it can do, but the chairman of the board of directors does it not come out that well at all. It almost did not hear, "says shareholder. Another investor in the list of top 20 shareholders of the group added: "From my point of view, it will be very, very difficult for the president to overcome that. This function must be occupied by someone credible on the international scene, and it is clear that this is not the case with the incumbent.
Same view for Peter Hitchens, analyst at Panmure Gordon: "There is more pressure on the president who was, at least initially, very little known. I think at this point, we'll have someone go, so BP is in trouble. " "Obviously, everybody is looking for a scapegoat.This could be the president, "said his side Yevgeny Solovyov, an analyst at Societe Generale.
"We will survive"
Faced with this pressure, Carl-Henric Svanberg trying to stay focused. "BP is a very solid company and we will survive," he said. He said a disappearance of the band because of this disaster "can not happen."
The spill in the Gulf of Mexico has so far cost the group $ 1.8 billion, and the bill could rise considerably. In criminal prosecutions, the company may have to pay tens of billions of dollars in legal fees alone. Analysts estimate that the total cost of the disaster for BP should be between 17 and 60 billion dollars.
"On the 24-hour period ending at midnight last night, we were able to recover 25,000 barrels of oil," Friday welcomed Admiral Thad Allen to coordinate the fight against the tide black. He added that BP expected increase this volume to 53,000 barrels per day by end June So far, BP recovered 15,000 barrels per day, while the well is located 1,500 meters deep and 80 miles from U.S. shores spits every day between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels (up to 9.5 million liters) of oil .
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