Debts credibility of the new emerging
While industrial countries emerging from crisis levels weighted with historically high public debt, emerging markets display patterns much healthier. Their good resistance during the recession of 2009 and an underlying trend towards greater stability has attracted the interest of investors.
"We see a positive snowball effect on emerging market debt: a dozen countries have been under positive outlook by rating agencies, which herald a recovery of notes, analytical Anne-Sophie Girault, a specialist in this Market Aviva Investors. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and others see a positive view of the low debt ratio of developing countries, which averages less than 40% of gross domestic product. Twice as less developed countries.
The emerging markets have also gained credibility in the markets."They have improved their fundamentals, the local central banks are becoming more independent, inflation is under control and steering of public finances is good," Frank J. Nicolas, Natixis AM. And the economic outlook is much better than in Europe, for example.
Result: institutional investors have been interested for nearly ten months to market, providing stability. They take long positions. So far, only hedge funds were present in the short term, making the market very volatile. Today, the market is 360 billion of debt issued in dollars and 1.4 trillion dollars of debt issued in local currency.
Record demand
In this context, the demand for emerging market debt from the investment fund has beaten all records in the first half, according to the calculations of Aviva.At $ 31 billion, it almost reaches the levels of previous years in just five months.
Emerging now are they safe? "These are pseudo-safe investments," says Franck Nicolas. "Beware of Loved tobacco." Clearly, the emerging countries are always a risk of sudden reversal of the situation. And if their fundamentals, growth, inflation, debt-positive, "markets, very nervous now, can still cause a contagion" of the debt crisis in emerging countries, recognizes Anne-Sophie Girault.
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