Archive for October 27th, 2009
Nicole who? Nicole Notat. The former boss of the CFDT has perhaps gone the media landscape, it nevertheless remains active. She who was the first woman to lead a trade union confederation in France is now CEO of Vigeo, a rating agency social enterprises. She oversees a team to issue ratings of companies based on criteria that are not only financial but also social (wage policy, governance, …) or on sustainable development. Member of the High Authority against Discrimination and for Equality (Halde) – three half-days per month we entrust Does she paid 100 euros each to examine possible cases of discrimination, it is also Member of the Century, a renowned think tank.
Invited Talk Friday on France Info Net (in partnership with lefigaro.fr with lexpress.fr this week), she initially welcomed the decision "wise and good" Jean Sarkozy not to run for the presidency of the Institution public management of Defense (EPAD). "He did not measure what it meant to be called Sarkozy" Justice does, arguing that the case was "ill-fitted" but that its outcome could ultimately serve the individual. In contrast, it rose against the argument of youth and inexperience of the son of the Head of State that would preclude taking the head of the EPAD.
On another topic, suicide France Telecom, Nicole Notat said it was "shocked at the debate on the statistical approach", triggered this week by a statistician INSEE Cross.Asked about the citizen voting held recently on the future of La Poste, she said: "I would not have voted in the sense of loss'. To recall, almost all of the voters said no to the question "The government wants to change the status of La Poste to privatize, do you agree with this project?" A formulation challenged by the right.
Member of the commission that reflects the future large loan, Nicole Notat said, personally – but said this should be the amount suggested by the committee that it should be between 30 and 50 billion euros . A committee should also recommend to borrow at lower cost, ie banks rather than at French.Direction as already outlined by Alain Jupp? as Michel Rocard, who headed the commission.
Watch this first sequence devoted to the news of the week:
In the second part of the show, Nicole Notat deplored the continuation of overseas banking practices on the bonus. "Distressing and disturbing," she said while welcoming the steps in the right direction made during the last G20. The President of Vigeo also substantially clarified the mission of his company, his metodes work. A relatively new, little known to the French, who suffered from the financial crisis. "If only we had already criticized," she implored on the tone of the joke, measuring the long road to go to educate the French investissemnt socially repsonse (SRI).Asked about the social ratings of France Telecom, hit by a wave of suicides, in terms of criteria Vigeo, she conceded that it should find it deteriorated.The report on the public company is "being finalized".
The second part of the show:
During the latter part of the show, Nicole Notat responded to questions from users: use of older (she presented a report to Laurent Wauquiez and believes that companies will be behind the goals set by the government), evolution CFDT, role of media work Halde, etc..
The end of the show:
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Another bad sign for the government of Gordon Brown at the approach of elections in which his party, the Labor is the underdog. The UK economy has remained stuck in recession in the third quarter, and has even suffered its longest period of decline for more than half a century.
While economists hoped that the UK went into recession in the second quarter of 2008 would have returned a meager growth (which they saw to 0.2% on average) between July and September, the first estimate of the NSO The British equivalent of INSEE, showed the contrary, a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.4% over the previous quarter and by 5.2% over one year.It is hardly better than the second quarter, where GDP had declined by 0.6%, and while the UK economy fell by 5.9% since its entry into recession.
Finally, to cap it all, the ONS said he never registered period of contraction in economic activity so long since 1955. The United Kingdom could be in fact the only major economy to have contracted in the third quarter. Several other countries including France, Germany and Japan have instead returned to growth in the second quarter of this year.
The London Stock Exchange has not suffered from these ads. In contrast, the pound sterling has accused the shock, falling around 1.09 euro while hovering around 1.11 before.According to economists, the slump of the pound reflects the fact that the Bank of England may be forced to continue its program of buying assets with banks (or "quantitative easing"), in which it has already sunk more than 170 billion pounds (about 185 billion euros), which is scheduled for completion in November.
The financial crisis has undoubtedly reduced the weight of the United States and Europe to Asia. Suddenly, the latter will take the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the world.
From this Friday until Sunday evening, leaders of ten ASEAN countries (Association of the South-Eastern Asia) met in Thailand. They are joined this morning by China, Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand and Australia. Countries whose recovery from crisis is much faster than in the West and for many of them are already preparing to abandon their recovery plans.
All concerned now the weak dollar, which they provide relief whenever necessary.And none of them has any interest in seeing the U.S. financial system to deteriorate, while exports remain the primary engine of growth.
"Stress tests" for Chinese banks
But the crisis was already moving lines. The model was that the United States absorb massive exports to Asia is in the process of shifting. In China and India, consumption explodes and is progressively taking over from the American buyer. ASEAN and its 600 million consumers will take over.
However, to enjoy the recovery, Asia should not repeat the mistakes of the Americans. Beijing has understood that today called for Chinese banks to conduct stress tests, stress tests each quarter to better manage credit and liquidity supply in the country.
It must also strengthen its cohesion.If in ten years exports of ASEAN have been multiplied by three, 1 700 billion, and its trade with China by ten, the regional bloc to just build a true economic community. Theoretically scheduled for 2015, it would then be extended to China, South Korea and Japan.
A dream which currently faces the political weakness of ASEAN. Nobody can believe the Committee on Human Rights that it has put in place, while Burma is a dictatorship where every opponent is going to jail and that Laos and Vietnam are two blocks Communists closed.
But Asia is a force. She has already lived through the 1998 crisis and emerged stronger than before.
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
"Tokyo is seeking a new motor recovery
Before Christmas is the time for chocolate. While the cocoa harvest in full swing, the courses of the famous bean reach new levels. In New York, a ton is trading at historical prices, around 3 390 dollars per tonne, as in London where 2 150 pounds per tonne have been exceeded. A steep climb in a short time.
"In the lull of summer, we were only 1 400 pounds per tonne. The market has changed dramatically since the funds are interested. It is not uncommon to see variations of 8% in one day, "says Jean-Paul Burrus, president of Salpa family group, owner of Chocolatier La Marquise de Sevigne. "Previously, that happened only when the coup. But now, the market became very volatile and there are more rules.We need to cover by buying futures a year, "says the businessman who uses each year 1 000 tonnes of cocoa from C?te d'Ivoire, Trinidad or Venezuela.
Global consumption is around 3 million tonnes per year, representing 3 to 4 billion euros turnover per year. What makes cocoa the third tropical agricultural commodity exchanged most, behind sugar and coffee.
Several factors explain the high rating current cocoa prices. First of growing speculation. "Since late August, there is renewed interest in risky markets and hence for agricultural commodities, said Vincent Geiger COUTIER at New Edge. They have the attraction of funds, because they represent a good bulwark against the inflationary pressures in a recovery scenario and good coverage on the foreign exchange market.The currency in which they are denominated, the dollar and the pound collapsed. "
Tensions on the course
In addition, there are factors specific to the cocoa market. "For five days, a strike is raging in C?te d'Ivoire, the largest producer with alone one third of the world's cocoa, and it is unclear whether the country will produce the psychological threshold of one million tonnes. Enough reason for a little more tension on the course.
Demand side is the explosion. Celebrations New Year approaching. "We sell more than half of our chocolates at Christmas," said Jean-Paul Burrus. Furthermore, new players entered the market with a consumption curve exponentially. "With rising living standards, demand is increasing in China and India," says Vincent Geiger.In Europe, sales also rose, perhaps because of the crisis, chocolate is considered by many as the best antidepressant!
In fifteen years, the French consumption has almost doubled from 4 to 7.5 kilograms per year per capita. It is still a few bars of Swiss, European champions with 11 kg. But ahead of Italy and Spain, with only two kilos.
Finally, the greedy have to fear a surge in prices of the tablet or small box? Hard to say, for Vincent Geiger. This will vary from one industry to another, as was more or less well covered against the higher prices for financial instruments and is ready or not to trim its margins. Strategies very secret. The Marquise de Sevigne excludes any increase in the short term, being forearmed against this risk.In addition, prices are fixed for a long time for some commands, such as works councils.
Yogurt machine is restarted. Thanks to price cuts, promotions and new standards more accessible, sales of Danone's dairy products rose 7% in volume in the third quarter. It's the largest increase since mid-2007.
So far, Danone had mostly favored the move upmarket with its brands Activia, Actimel and Danacol and rate increases. These were also made compulsory by the soaring price of milk. But the crisis had led to an alarming decline in volumes last year. In January, the group has initiated a program called reset ( "reset"). To boost volumes, each subsidiary has revised its product positioning and pricing in each of its markets (yoghurt, water, infant nutrition and medical nutrition).
Franck Riboud, Danone's boss has welcomed the success of these "operational adjustments."We did not only correct, but have been effective and rapid implementation, said without false modesty, the CEO. We have completed the repositioning of our products before the end of the year. "
A year ago, Danone was advised that because of the deteriorating economy, growing its sales in 2009 would be "less than a few points" in its medium-term target of between 8 and + + 10%. According to details made this Friday, the group table in fact now an annual growth of 2.8%.
While this is a very sharp slowdown in growth of sales, Danone has proven its ability to react and managed to accelerate the pace since January.In the third quarter, all regions are growing, even Europe, which was down in the first half.
Volvic and Evian in progress
Above all, "we gained market share in the three quarters of our markets," insists Peter Andre T?risse, the CFO. He also noted that milk prices would increase, "but return to significant increases in 2008." Danone may therefore increase some of its prices, "while remaining competitive."
Other good news: the return to form of the bottled water division, which is experiencing its strongest growth since early 2008. "Danone has its strong presence in Asia, the area that draws economic recovery," said Lee Linthium, head of research for Euromonitor.The institute predicts that sales of bottled water will increase by 8% in Asia this year, thanks to economic recovery in urban areas, where consumption of these products is higher.
Even in developed countries, Danone waters are rising again this summer, especially in France, the United Kingdom and Germany. With the impact of weather, but not only. "The sales made under Volvic promotion grew by 40%," says one Danone. In recent weeks, the promotion efforts made on Evian, the brand's flagship division, are even more important. Here again, priority is given to the volumes to boost sales.
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